Air Power Decisive: How India Leveraged Air Superiority to Force Pakistan into Peace Talks Through "Operation Safed Sagar"

On May 10, 2025, at noon, an urgent communication from the Pakistani military arrived at the command center in New Delhi—requesting an immediate ceasefire. At this point, only 88 hours had passed since India launched the retaliatory military strike codenamed Operation Sindhu. A border conflict that could have slid toward uncontrollable escalation came to an abrupt halt at an unusually rapid pace. A recent 47-page in-depth analysis report released by the Swiss Center for Military History and Prospective Studies has made public the details of this brief yet intense aerial confrontation. The report’s core conclusion is clear and powerful: the nearly overwhelming air superiority established by the Indian Air Force during the conflict was the fundamental reason that forced Pakistan to actively seek a ceasefire. This limited war, unfolding under the shadow of nuclear weapons, has not only reshaped the perception of military balance in the South Asian subcontinent but has also become a classic case study in the application of modern high-end air power.

A conflict with a predetermined "ceiling."

The terrorist attack in Pahaleham in early 2025 became the fuse for this storm. Unlike the previous restraint and crisis management approach regarding the Kashmir issue, the Indian government under Modi's leadership made a symbolic strategic shift. Analysis indicates that New Delhi authorized the military to conduct deep strikes against the infrastructure of the Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba within Pakistan's territory and, unusually, granted the armed forces broad operational freedom to manage the escalation of the conflict. This means that India's political objectives from the outset were dual in nature: to carry out punitive strikes against terrorist organizations and to be prepared to suppress the inevitable military response from the Pakistani army, while firmly controlling the scale of the conflict within a certain range.

The naming of Operation Sindoor itself carries strong symbolic significance. At dawn on May 7, Indian fighter jets quietly took to the skies. An assault formation composed of Rafale and Mirage 2000 aircraft penetrated Pakistani airspace using ultra-low-altitude penetration tactics, then performed a pop-up attack, unleashing precision-guided munitions on targets in Bahawalpur and Muridke. This was the first phase of the operation, striking directly at terrorist strongholds.

The response of the Pakistan Air Force was remarkably swift. Under the command of the Erieye airborne early warning aircraft, the Pakistani military urgently scrambled over 30 fighter jets, including F-16s, JF-17s, and J-10Cs, in an attempt to intercept the Indian aircraft formation. A fierce beyond-visual-range air battle unfolded in the night sky over the border. Pakistan claimed to have launched multiple PL-15 long-range air-to-air missiles, prioritizing the Rafale fighter jets as primary targets. Photos of wreckage circulated on social media afterward confirmed that India lost at least one Rafale (serial number BS001), one Mirage 2000, and another fighter, possibly a MiG-29UPG or Su-30MKI. Indian authorities have never officially confirmed this, only summarizing that all mission objectives were accomplished. From a tactical perspective, Pakistan achieved considerable success in the initial aerial engagement.

However, the tactical brilliance of this air combat victory was soon overshadowed by subsequent passivity at the campaign level. India's operational logic was not merely about symmetrical retaliation, but rather a meticulously designed combination of moves aimed at seizing and maintaining escalation dominance. To some extent, the initial aerial clashes might have been within India's expectations, even serving as a move to deplete and divert Pakistan's air defense attention.

System Shattering: From "Blinding the Eyes" to "Severing the Limbs"

The real turning point began on May 8. The Indian Air Force launched the second phase of the operation, with its core objective not being more terrorist camps, but rather Pakistan's air defense early warning system. The report details that the Indian Air Force initiated sustained airstrikes and air interdiction operations, focusing on border surveillance radars and long-range surface-to-air missile positions. On May 8, eight air defense sites were attacked; the following day, four more targets were hit. At least two early warning radars located in Chunian and Pasrur were destroyed, with related image evidence circulating online.

A more strategically significant scene unfolded in the electromagnetic spectrum domain. The report disclosed that an S-400 air defense system deployed by India near the border successfully ambushed a Pakistani Erieye airborne early warning and control aircraft or electronic warfare aircraft patrolling in the rear airspace. India claimed to have destroyed it at a distance of nearly 300 kilometers. Regardless of whether the aircraft was shot down or merely driven away, this incident dealt a heavy psychological and practical blow to Pakistan's aerial command system. Airborne early warning aircraft serve as force multipliers in modern aerial warfare, and losing one means aerial formations become nearsighted.

Pakistan's air defense network is caught in a dilemma: radars that remain active become easy targets for India's long-range precision firepower, while shutting them down means ceding surveillance over vast airspace. The report analyzes that surviving radars are forced to operate intermittently or remain silent, leading to a sharp degradation in Pakistan's air situational awareness. The effect of this system-disruption tactic is cumulative—it peels away Pakistan’s defensive layers like an onion, creating conditions for India’s subsequent, deeper strikes.

Meanwhile, Pakistan attempted to adopt an offensive stance for defense. Starting from May 7, Pakistan launched a large-scale drone and missile offensive. It is reported that the first wave involved over 300 drones, the second wave increased to approximately 600 drones, and was mixed with artillery rockets, ballistic missiles, and air-launched munitions. Its tactical intent was clear: through saturation attacks, lure India's radars and air defense systems to fully activate, thereby locating and suppressing them. However, India's response demonstrated the maturity of its air defense system. By integrating the Air Force's Integrated Air Command and Control System with the Army's Akash Teer network, the Indian military achieved the fusion and efficient distribution of sensor data. Radars could employ instant activation tactics, completing detection in an extremely short time before quickly shutting down, making it difficult for Pakistan to precisely locate and triangulate them. The report indicates that over half of the incoming drones were shot down by anti-aircraft artillery, and Pakistan consistently failed to effectively ascertain India's electronic order of battle.

Decisive Blow: Deep Penetration and Ceasefire Request

On the night of May 9 to 10, Pakistan launched the largest counterattack of the conflict, focusing on Indian air force bases and nearby S-400 positions in locations such as Adampur, Srinagar, and Kutch. Despite the use of drones, electronic jamming, and coordinated fighter aircraft, this offensive still failed to breach India's multi-layered air defense network. The report emphasizes that Pakistan's claims of causing damage to the S-400 systems lack verifiable evidence.

India's response was swift and fierce. After detecting the conclusion of Pakistan's attack operations, the Indian military launched its first wave of deep precision strikes between 2:00 AM and 5:00 AM on May 10. Su-30MKI, Jaguar, and Rafale fighter jets, operating within Indian airspace, fired long-range missiles such as BrahMos, SCALP-EG, and Rampage, striking seven targets within 200 kilometers of the border. These targets included one surface-to-air missile site and five air force bases.

The strike list reads like an inventory of Pakistan's aerial power assets:

• North: At the Nur Khan Air Base near Islamabad, a command and control center was destroyed; at the Murid Air Base, a hub for Pakistan's medium-altitude long-endurance drones, multiple hangars and control centers were attacked.
• Central Region: The runway of Rahim Yar Khan Air Base was hit by multiple missiles, with the civilian terminal reportedly housing a drone control center severely damaged; Rafiqui Air Base also came under attack.
• South: A hangar storing drones and radar at Sukkur Air Base was hit.

This is just the beginning. At 10 a.m. that day, after discovering that Pakistan was still preparing to counterattack, the Indian Air Force launched a second wave of strikes. This time, the targets expanded to include manned fighter aircraft parked on the ground. Sargodha Air Base—home to multiple fighter squadrons of Pakistan—had its runway intersection hit, rendering the base inoperable. At the southern Jacobabad Air Base, an F-16 maintenance hangar was directly struck, destroying the radar and supporting facilities; a hangar at the Bholari Air Base was severely damaged, possibly housing an Erieye airborne early warning and control aircraft.

The Indian Air Force assessed that these strikes, at the cost of approximately 50 long-range munitions, destroyed at least 4-5 F-16s, 1 Erieye, 1 C-130 transport aircraft, several medium-altitude long-endurance drones, 2 radars, 2 command and control centers, and 1 surface-to-air missile battery. While Pakistan disputed some of the battle damage, such as claiming the Erieye only sustained minor injuries and could be quickly repaired, it also acknowledged that 5 personnel were killed at the Bolarai base.

The outcome at the campaign level is already beyond any doubt. The Indian Air Force has gained operational freedom over vast swathes of Pakistani airspace, enabling it to launch deep strikes with relative ease. In contrast, the Pakistani Air Force, with its forward early-warning system destroyed, key bases severely damaged, and early-warning aircraft under threat, has largely lost the capability to organize an effective, symmetrical counterattack. Continued escalation would only inflict unbearable losses on Pakistan, with no hope of reversing the situation in sight.

Therefore, at noon on May 10, the Pakistani military issued a ceasefire request. India promptly accepted, as its political and military objectives had already been achieved: punitive strikes were carried out against terrorist infrastructure, and Pakistan's national military response was successfully suppressed. The conflict began within the boundaries set by India and concluded under its dominant pace.

Beyond Kill-to-Loss Ratio: Insights into the Application of Modern Air Power

The 88 hours of Operation Sindur provided military insights far beyond South Asian geopolitics. It was not merely an air battle about who shot down more aircraft, but a comprehensive demonstration of system confrontation, escalation control, and strategic will.

First, seizing the initiative in escalation becomes the core objective of limited warfare. Throughout the operation, India demonstrated precise control over the pace and ceiling of the conflict. From the initial strikes on terrorist camps, to the peeling operations targeting air defense systems, and finally to the deep strikes on bases, each step aimed at depriving the opponent of the capability for proportional retaliation, while carefully avoiding crossing red lines that could trigger a nuclear response. This cost-imposition strategy forced the adversary into a painful choice between enduring losses and allowing the conflict to escalate indefinitely, ultimately leading them to choose the former.

Secondly, the role of air power has shifted from battlefield support to a strategic tool. In this operation, the Indian Air Force simultaneously played multiple roles: strategic strike (attacking terrorist camps), operational interdiction (suppressing air defense networks), and tactical defense (intercepting drone swarms). In particular, the demonstration of long-range precision strike capabilities enabled India to inflict significant damage on key nodes deep within enemy territory without risking the capture of its own pilots. This capability itself constitutes a powerful deterrent.

Furthermore, the value of system integration and information superiority is fully demonstrated. The key to India's air defense network successfully thwarting Pakistan's large-scale drone attack lies in the high degree of integration of its command and control, sensor, and weapon systems. The brief radar activation time, efficient data fusion, and distribution rendered Pakistan's electronic reconnaissance and suppression attempts ineffective. Modern air combat is no longer a duel between platforms but a contest between systems.

Finally, the value of this report issued by a neutral third-party organization lies in its relatively objective presentation of the complex aspects of the conflict. It acknowledges India's decisive advantage at the campaign level while also documenting Pakistan's tactical successes (such as shooting down advanced Indian fighter jets). This balanced perspective reminds us that the outcome of a war is often not determined by a single event, but rather by the strategic effects accumulated through a series of actions.

Operation Sindhu has concluded, but the ripples it left behind will continue to spread. It has sent a clear signal to the region and even the world: the military balance in South Asia is undergoing profound changes. As the most technology-intensive and rapidly responsive strategic branch, the establishment and application of air power superiority will become a key variable shaping the outcomes of future crises. For Pakistan, how to bridge the widening gap in air capabilities poses a serious challenge; for other observers, this brief conflict serves as a practical textbook on how to wage a controlled, victorious limited war in the nuclear age. The dominance of the skies has never been so directly linked to the initiative at the negotiating table as it is today.