Historic Surpass of Wind and Solar: Opportunities and Hidden Concerns Behind the Turning Point in the EU's Energy Structure in 2023
23/01/2026
In January 2025, while much of Europe remained enveloped in the chill of winter, an annual report released by the energy think tank Ember delivered a piece of scorching news to the continent, powerful enough to dispel the gloom. The figures in the report were concise yet compelling: wind and solar energy together contributed 30% of the European Union's annual electricity generation, surpassing the 29% share of fossil fuels for the first time. This seemingly narrow 1% lead marks a turning point of an era—renewable energy is no longer a supporting player in the energy system but has become the new backbone driving Europe's electricity.
However, beneath the title of this report lies far more than just a reason for celebration. It resembles a precise diagnostic chart, revealing both the astonishing muscular contours of Europe's energy transition and the blockages and vulnerabilities still present in its arteries. From the wind farms of the Baltic Sea to the photovoltaic arrays of the Iberian Peninsula, this silent revolution is reshaping Europe's geopolitical chessboard, economic logic, and security boundaries.
Behind the Milestone: The Solar Surge and Structural Shift
Analysis reveals that the engine behind this historic leap did not operate with uniform force. Solar power is the undisputed frontrunner. Its electricity generation achieved a growth of over 20% in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of such high growth rates. With a 13% contribution rate for the entire year, it not only set a record but also surpassed coal and hydroelectric power for the first time. In Hungary, Cyprus, Greece, Spain, and the Netherlands, solar power already accounts for more than one-fifth of electricity production. Even in the Netherlands, which is not renowned for abundant sunshine, this proportion has exceeded 20%, challenging traditional perceptions of solar energy's geographical limitations.
In comparison, wind power generation experienced a slight decline due to unfavorable wind conditions at the beginning of the year, contributing 16.9%, yet it remains the second-largest source of electricity in the EU. Together, wind and solar power have increased their combined share from 20% five years ago to 30%, outlining a steep growth curve.
The fossil fuel sector is experiencing internal division and contraction. The decline of coal is the most pronounced, with its share dropping to a historic low of 9.2%, accounting for less than 5% in 19 EU countries. Ireland has even completely phased out coal power. However, the role of natural gas appears contradictory. Its electricity generation increased by 8% in 2025, reaching a share of 16.7%, making it the only segment within fossil fuels to grow against the trend. The Ember report points out that this is primarily due to a decrease in hydropower output (-12%) caused by reduced precipitation, requiring flexible gas-fired generation to fill the gap and maintain grid stability.
This structural shift signifies that the EU's electricity sources are transitioning from the old dual structure of coal and natural gas to a new combination of wind and solar renewable energy, nuclear power, and flexible gas-fired power. Nuclear power maintains a stable share of 23.4%, while all renewable energy sources (including hydropower, biomass, etc.) collectively account for nearly half, reaching 47.7%. The macro narrative of the energy transition is now being broken down into the micro dynamics of the rise and fall of specific energy categories.
Geopolitical Energy Projection: The Arduous Journey from "Dependence" to "Autonomy"
If data outlines the form of transformation, then geopolitics reveals its essence. Ember report author Beatrice Petrovic refers to this milestone as a major turning point, with strategic significance far beyond the electricity industry itself. Her judgment goes straight to the core: the risks of relying on fossil fuels loom in the turbulent geopolitical landscape.
The shadow of Russia has not yet dissipated. Despite the European Union's determination to completely eliminate its dependence on Russian pipeline gas by the end of 2027, Russia still accounted for approximately one-fifth of the EU's total natural gas imports in 2025. The increase in gas-fired power generation directly led to a 16% rise in the EU's fossil gas import bill and triggered price fluctuations in the electricity market. The report clearly warns that the risk of energy blackmail from fossil fuel exporting countries remains high.
Transatlantic relations have also introduced new variables. The report unusually mentions concerns over reliance on a single U.S. supplier. At the Davos Forum in early 2025, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick openly criticized Europe's vigorous development of wind and solar power, arguing that the absence of local battery factories could lead to Europe's dependence on China. He unabashedly advocated for "America First" and hinted that energy supplies should prioritize allies. These remarks blatantly place energy trade within the framework of geopolitical competition, reminding Europe that even if the source of supply is replaced, the inherent risks of dependency may merely shift elsewhere.
The warning from Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), at Davos was even more profound. He believes that energy security should be elevated to the level of national security and lamented that he has never seen energy security risks so intertwined and geopolitical threats to the energy sector so immense. This means that Europe's wind turbines and photovoltaic panels are no longer just tools for emission reduction under the climate agenda but also infrastructure crucial to strategic autonomy and national security.
From this perspective, the significance of pioneering countries like Denmark (with wind and solar accounting for 71%) and Sweden (which achieved wind and solar surpassing fossil fuels as early as 2010) lies not only in their leadership in environmental protection, but also in the fact that through their extremely high proportion of local renewable energy, they have built a buffer wall against external energy political pressure.
The Next Battle: Bottlenecks in the Power Grid, Batteries, and System Flexibility
Crossing the milestone of power generation is just the first step in the long march of energy transition. The real challenge has shifted from the power generation side to system integration. Multiple experts have pointed out that the current issue in Europe is no longer power generation, but the pace of grid, battery, and flexibility deployment.
Aging power grids have become the most prominent bottleneck. Europe's power grid system was initially designed around centralized large-scale coal-fired power plants and later adapted for gas power stations. Today, wind and solar energy are characterized by their distributed, intermittent nature and frequent location in remote areas (such as wind farms in the North Sea and solar parks in Southern Europe). Electricity needs to be transmitted over long distances from these new centers to consumption hubs. Last year, Poland repeatedly failed to absorb locally generated solar power due to insufficient grid capacity, resulting in wasted electricity. This is not an isolated case. A 2025 report by energy research firm Aurora pointed out that Europe's grid congestion management costs had already approached 9 billion euros in 2024, while approximately 72 TWh of renewable energy (primarily) was curtailed due to transmission bottlenecks, equivalent to Austria's annual electricity consumption.
EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson has warned that the renewable energy targets for 2030 will not be achievable if grid infrastructure is not upgraded very quickly. The European Commission estimates that 584 billion euros in annual grid investment is needed to meet the goals.
Energy storage batteries are considered one of the key technologies to break the deadlock. The Ember report identified positive signs: the evening peak electricity demand, which typically requires firing up expensive gas peaking plants, is now beginning to be partially met by batteries. Italy possesses one-fifth of the EU's operational battery capacity and has planned a large number of projects, potentially following in California's footsteps—where batteries can already routinely meet 20% of the evening peak demand and are increasingly displacing natural gas generation. The continuous decline in battery prices is making the economic viability of integrated solar-plus-storage models increasingly prominent.
However, the supply chain of the battery industry itself involves geopolitical factors. Europe's relative weakness in battery manufacturing forces it to examine its dependence on Asian supply chains while embracing this key technology. This creates a complex cycle: developing renewable energy to reduce reliance on fossil fuels may lead to new dependencies within emerging technology industry chains.
Future Vision: The Thorny Path to a Fully Clean Power System
Looking ahead, Europe's energy transition path will become even more complex. Energy expert Peter Fingerhuth from VITO-Energyville points out that this is just the beginning. Future electricity demand is expected to double, driven by the massive needs of transportation electrification, heat pump adoption, and the electrification of industrial processes. The system must prepare for larger-scale and more volatile wind and solar power generation.
This means that natural gas will continue to serve as an important flexibility resource and backup power source in the medium term. The key question is no longer whether gas power plants are needed, but rather how many are required and how their role should be designed to ensure system security without becoming stranded assets or a lock-in factor hindering emission reduction. Petrović suggests that policymakers and investors should carefully examine whether plans for new gas power plants are excessive, to avoid future burdens on taxpayers and investors.
Ultimately, Europe's goal is to build a resilient and sovereign energy system. Achieving this requires a three-pronged approach: large-scale investment in upgrading and digitizing the power grid, accelerating the deployment of energy storage systems to manage fluctuations, and leveraging smart technologies to enhance demand-side response capabilities. Only in this way can a higher proportion of wind and solar energy be safely and economically integrated into the energy system.
The conclusion of Ember's report is profound: these measures not only enhance energy security but are also crucial for ensuring predictable and stable energy prices. After experiencing the inflation and social pains brought about by drastic fluctuations in energy prices, this is equally important for the people and economy of Europe as emission reduction itself.
This first in 2025 is less a finish line of victory and more a starting gunshot. It marks the entry of Europe's energy race into a brand-new stage: shifting from pursuing installed capacity and generation share to pursuing the modernization, intelligence, and geopolitical resilience of the entire power system. Wind and solar have already illuminated the center stage, but now, the entire stage itself requires a thorough transformation for this starring performance.