The internal unrest in Iran continues to escalate! The United States is secretly infiltrating and instigating rebellion, and a dangerous moment is approaching.

The domestic unrest in Iran has escalated to an increasingly intense phase, with street protests and internal conflicts continuing to simmer. Meanwhile, the covert infiltration and subversive actions by the United States are intensifying step by step, pushing this Middle Eastern nation into an unprecedented state of peril. Under the dual pressures of internal and external threats, the survival of the Iranian regime hangs by a thread, and the uncertainty in the regional situation continues to rise. A storm capable of reshaping the Middle Eastern landscape is rapidly approaching.

I. America's "Trojan Horse" Strategy: Undermining the Iranian Regime from Within

The United States' strategic deployment against Iran has long surpassed direct military intervention, shifting instead to a more covert **Trojan Horse tactic**, with the core objective of subverting the Iranian regime from within. Its key approach lies in instigating defections within Iran's internal security forces, particularly targeting core powers such as the Revolutionary Guards and government-affiliated troops. The aim is to compel these departments, at critical moments, to either remain inactive or turn against the regime, thereby achieving a change of power at the lowest possible cost.

This internal infiltration strategy is not without basis; similar cases of external intervention can be referenced to demonstrate the feasibility of achieving regime turmoil by subverting internal forces. To coordinate with this tactic, the United States simultaneously applied economic and public opinion pressure: on one hand, announcing the imposition of a % tariff on all countries trading with Iran to weaken Iran's national strength through economic strangulation; on the other hand, closely monitoring the dynamics of the situation, with relevant high-level officials claiming to receive hourly briefings on Iran's situation, ready for subsequent actions at any time.

It is worth noting that the likelihood of direct military intervention by the United States is relatively low. Deploying ground forces would come at a high cost and could easily repeat the mistakes of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, plunging the nation into prolonged turmoil. Therefore, breaching the fortress from within has become the core path for the United States to subvert Iran.

II. The Root of Iran's Internal Turmoil: The Inevitable Outcome of a Triple Crisis

. Survival Crisis: Economic Collapse Ignites Public Resentment

The continuous deterioration of Iran's economy is the direct catalyst for internal unrest. In 2022, Iran's officially announced inflation rate reached as high as 45.2%. The national currency, the rial, depreciated sharply, plummeting from approximately 120,000 rials per U.S. dollar at the beginning of the year to 450,000 rials per U.S. dollar by the end of the year. Food prices surged by 52.2% within a year, with the prices of essential consumer goods such as bread and hamburgers soaring to levels that the public could hardly afford.

The currency crash directly wiped out the entire wealth of middle-class families, reducing lifelong savings to zero overnight. The government was forced to eliminate all import exchange rate subsidies except for wheat and medicines, further exacerbating the hardships of daily life. The comprehensive economic collapse drove public dissatisfaction with the regime to its peak, creating fertile ground for the outbreak of protest activities.

. Legitimacy Crisis: The Collapse of Credibility in Theocratic Rule.

Public discontent is no longer confined to economic issues but is gradually extending into the political sphere, directly challenging the legitimacy of the theocratic government. The government's privileged corruption, nepotism, failures in economic governance, and perceived weakness in foreign policy have sparked widespread public skepticism. The religious narratives and governance models originally intended to unite the people have lost their effectiveness amid real-world challenges. The act of women removing their headscarves, in particular, represents a direct challenge to the traditional norms of theocratic rule.

More importantly, the numerous vulnerabilities in Iran's security system have further shaken the foundations of the regime. A series of incidents—including the drone assassination of General Soleimani in 2019, the targeted killing of nuclear scientists by agents in 2020, and Iran's weak response following the U.S. military airstrikes in 2024—reveal serious flaws in the country's internal intelligence and security defenses. These events demonstrate that when facing external strikes, Iran is either unable to respond or lacks the capacity to counter them, shattering the tough image the regime has projected to the outside world.

. Sovereignty Crisis: The Interweaving of External Intervention and Internal Contradictions

The Iranian people are simultaneously facing the dual predicament of government incompetence and external hegemonic oppression, creating a peculiar situation where anti-government and anti-American sentiments coexist. In street protests, there is dissatisfaction with the current economic situation as well as questioning of foreign policies. The slogans convey a demand for prioritizing national interests.

The involvement of the United States, Israel, and Iranian exile groups has further intensified the conflicts. Senior U.S. officials publicly expressed support for the protesters, while Israel voiced sympathy for the Iranian people, internationalizing Iran's internal affairs and laying the groundwork for intervention through public opinion. Exiled descendants of the former royal family called on the public to take to the streets, accelerating the shift of protests from economic to political issues. This also provided the Iranian authorities with grounds to label the situation as manipulated by external forces, plunging the situation into a vicious cycle.

III. Military and Geopolitical Dilemma: The Complete Collapse of Political Authority

. Military Defeat and the Collapse of the "Axis of Resistance"

The collapse of the credibility of the Iranian regime began with successive military setbacks. By the end of 2024, Israel launched military strikes against Iran, effectively grounding flights in Iranian airspace and severely violating its sovereignty. The Revolutionary Guards, touted domestically as invincible, were utterly defenseless against U.S. and Israeli attacks. U.S. B-2 bombers used massive bunker-buster bombs to destroy Iran's key underground nuclear facilities, while the expensive Russian S-300 air defense systems, purchased at great cost, failed entirely under electronic warfare suppression, completely exposing their paper tiger nature.

Amid military setbacks, the decades-long geopolitical alliance network known as the "Axis of Resistance," constructed by Iran, has also completely collapsed. The fall of the Syrian Assad regime severed Iran's land bridge to the Mediterranean; the targeted elimination of senior leaders of Hezbollah in Lebanon and the disarmament of Hamas have plunged Iran into comprehensive strategic isolation. Public discontent over the regime's massive expenditure on supporting overseas allies, while failing to safeguard national territory and improve people's livelihoods, has further erupted.

. Internal instability and the deterioration of the external environment

Signs of instability within the regime have accelerated the spread of the crisis. Reports indicate that Iran's Supreme Leader has formulated an escape plan to flee to Moscow if the situation spirals out of control. Such rumors have spread among the military and police forces, severely undermining the loyalty of security personnel. The initiators of these protests are the bazaar merchant class, which once served as a crucial economic pillar of the regime. The defection of this traditionally conservative force carries symbolic significance, signaling the collapse of the regime's foundational support.

Changes in the external environment have also provided momentum for the protests. Former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly stated that if the Iranian government uses violence against its citizens, the United States will take action and has already been briefed on potential military operations against Iran. Such public security assurances have significantly boosted the confidence of the demonstrators, leading to an escalation in the intensity of the protests.

IV. The Possibility and Potential Pathways of U.S.-Israel Military Intervention

Recent signals indicate that escalating military pressure from the United States and Israel on Iran has heightened the risk of war. Some personnel at the U.S. military's Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar have been advised to evacuate. The base, capable of accommodating large military aircraft such as the B-52 and C-17, is a potential target for Iranian retaliation. Meanwhile, the Israeli Prime Minister's official aircraft took off from the Sde Dov Air Base, shelters have been opened in several cities across the country, and civil defense preparations have been activated. These actions collectively suggest preparations for potential military operations against Iran.

However, the military actions of the United States and Israel face multiple dilemmas, with relatively limited feasible paths:

• Decapitation or Kidnapping Operations: If Iranian leaders are killed in an explosion, it may enhance their mythical image and inspire domestic unity against a common enemy; however, live capture or kidnapping faces geographical obstacles and high operational risks. Infiltration by land is highly likely to be detected, resulting in an extremely low success rate.
• Repeating Historical Airstrike Patterns: Targeted strikes on military objectives such as nuclear facilities and missile sites can weaken Iran's military capabilities, but they fail to address the root cause of the issue and may instead provoke large-scale retaliation.
• Ground Offensive: Considered completely infeasible. The United States has not conducted large-scale military or material deployments in the Middle East. Relying solely on Iranian anti-government forces cannot threaten the heartland and would lead to prolonged conflict.

Overall, for the United States, the most likely option is to conduct symbolic airstrikes on key Iranian targets and then declare victory, achieving both the effect of exerting pressure and avoiding the quagmire of long-term intervention. However, regardless of the approach taken, military action will trigger uncontrollable escalation of the regional situation.

V. Outlook on the Situation: Regime Survival and the Uncertainty of Iran's Future

Currently, the Iranian theocratic regime is trapped in a desperate situation both domestically and internationally, having completely lost its legitimacy. Protests have escalated from economic strikes to nationwide resistance, with instances of defections among security forces, significantly increasing the risk of the regime's collapse. Despite the Iranian government's adoption of extreme measures such as internet shutdowns and violent crackdowns, Musk's announcement of providing free Starlink internet has rendered information blockades ineffective, making it difficult to quell the wave of protests.

If the regime ultimately collapses, Iran will face dual challenges and a glimmer of hope. The challenges lie in the presence of domestic ethnic armed groups, the risk of national fragmentation, and the potential chaos arising from a power vacuum; the hope, however, is that exiled opposition leaders have already integrated various forces, proposed concrete transition plans, explicitly stated they do not seek administrative positions, and plan to serve as symbols of national unity to oversee the transition to a democratic system, initiate fair elections, thereby offering an alternative path for Iran's future.

Overall, the trajectory of the situation in Iran is not only related to its own regime change and national destiny but will also profoundly affect the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, the security of the global oil supply chain, and the strategic arrangements of the United States and Israel in the region. Subsequent developments warrant continued attention.