Global Security Situation Brief -

Iran

According to the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, as of early this morning, the nationwide protests in Iran, which have lasted for more than two weeks, have resulted in at least 2,500 deaths. The agency added that among the deceased, 2,403 were protesters, and 147 were individuals associated with the government—including 12 children and 9 civilians who were not involved in the demonstrations—and estimated that over 18,100 people have been detained. (Associated Press)
According to a report by The New York Times, two Iranian government officials recently stated that internal data indicates the death toll is approximately 3,000, and could potentially be even higher. A senior official from the Ministry of Health claimed that around 3,000 people have died nationwide, including hundreds of security personnel, and attempted to shift the blame to alleged terrorists inciting unrest. Another government official mentioned that he had seen an internal report citing at least 3,000 deaths, adding that the number could still rise.
According to reports, White House envoy Steve Witkoff secretly met with Iran's exiled former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi over the weekend to discuss the protests in Iran. It was also reported that the White House National Security Council held a meeting yesterday morning to discuss response measures—President Trump did not attend—and a U.S. official revealed that Israel submitted an assessment to the United States estimating that at least protesters have been killed.
According to The New York Times, during Iran's near-total communication blackout, reports from outside described authorities adopting a shoot-to-kill suppression campaign against the protests. Witnesses and hospital staff described security forces opening fire, sometimes indiscriminately, with snipers positioned on rooftops; emergency rooms admitted 19 gunshot wound patients within an hour, resulting in mass casualties on the scene. Despite the blockade, rows of body bags appeared in videos and broadcasts, with one protester telling The New York Times: "The regime is on a killing spree."
Yesterday, Trump escalated his public incitement of protests among the Iranian people, urging protesters to continue demonstrating, take over your institutions!!!, and promising that aid is on the way. On Truth Social, Trump also stated that he has canceled all meetings with Iranian officials until the Iranian regime ceases its crackdown. He also told demonstrators to remember the names of the killers and perpetrators, warning that they will pay a heavy price. (Reuters)
Trump stated that he is discussing the next steps with the national security team, while seeking to confirm how many Iranians were killed or arrested, and urging Tehran to show humanitarian spirit toward the protesters. He said the killings appear to be significant, and the United States will take corresponding actions, adding that the Iranian government's behavior is extremely egregious. Trump mentioned that he has not yet received an exact death toll and noted that he has heard five different numbers. (Associated Press)
Iran's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Amir Saeed Iravani, sent a letter to UN officials formally condemning Trump's latest remarks, describing them as interventionist rhetoric. Iravani stated that these remarks amount to a direct call for destabilization, incitement of violence, and a threat to Iran's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national security. (Associated Press)
According to Holistic Resilience, a U.S.-based organization that helps Iranian citizens access the internet, users in Iran were able to use Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet service for free yesterday. Ahmad Ahmadian, the executive director of the organization, stated that SpaceX, Starlink’s parent company, waived user fees amid an almost complete communication blackout and ongoing large-scale protests in Iran. (The New York Times)

U.S. Caribbean and Pacific Operations

A 22-page memorandum from the Office of Legal Counsel (OLC) of the U.S. Department of Justice indicates that President Trump had the authority to deploy U.S. troops into Venezuela to assist in the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro without congressional authorization. The memorandum, written by OLC Director T. Elliott Gasser and dated December 23—approximately 11 days before the operation commenced—was submitted to congressional members yesterday. The unclassified version of the memorandum describes the operation as the abduction of Maduro and argues that the President may act unilaterally if the deployment serves national interests and its anticipated nature, scale, and duration do not constitute war in the constitutional sense, even if the operation involves ground troops and expected combat. The memorandum further contends that even if the operation violates international law, it would not diminish the President’s domestic authority under longstanding precedent, citing OLC’s prior view that the President may override the United Nations Charter under domestic law. To support the legality of U.S. military assistance to the FBI in overseas arrest operations, the report cites precedents including the 1998 African embassy bombings and the 2012 Benghazi attack, and references a 1989 opinion by William Barr at the Office of Legal Counsel, which asserts that the United States possesses inherent constitutional authority to arrest suspects abroad and regards the only viable constraints as domestic laws, such as the Constitution and the War Powers Act. (The New York Times)

Israel-Hamas war

U.S. officials stated that the Trump administration will announce today the entry into the second phase of its Gaza plan and will appoint an interim Palestinian committee responsible for the daily management of the Gaza Strip. It is expected that the U.S. will appoint 15 Palestinian technocrats to form the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG), which will be responsible for managing essential public services. Additionally, former U.N. envoy Nickolay Mladenov will be appointed as a senior representative to oversee the implementation of the plan through a peace commission chaired by Trump. The membership list of this commission has not yet been disclosed. Some regional officials remain skeptical because Hamas has not clarified whether and how it will disarm in accordance with the ceasefire terms. (The Wall Street Journal)

American relations

Recently, at least six senior prosecutors from the Criminal Section of the Justice Department's Civil Rights Division have left their positions, causing internal turmoil within the division. Reuters reported that some sources linked these departures to dissatisfaction with the division's leadership direction during the Trump era, as well as the decision by Civil Rights Division Chief Hamit Dilan to exclude the division from the investigation into the shooting involving Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in Minnesota. However, the Justice Department stated that these lawyers had submitted their resignations and applied for early retirement plans long before the shooting occurred. Other reports also indicated that the departures were not directly caused by the case. Reuters reported that Dilan informed the division last week that they would not be involved in the Minnesota investigation. (The Washington Post)
Yesterday, six federal prosecutors in Minnesota resigned, including the second-in-command of the U.S. Attorney’s Office. This came after their relationship with the leadership of the Department of Justice grew increasingly strained over the investigation into the shooting at the Minneapolis Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) office. The New York Times reported that their resignations were prompted by pressure from the Department of Justice to investigate the victim’s widow, as well as an unwillingness to investigate the shooter or the legality of the use of force, including refusing to involve state government officials in the investigation. CNN noted that the departure of some prosecutors also stemmed from being asked to investigate other cases related to protest activities. CBS News added that sources were frustrated that the case was being treated as an assault on a police officer rather than a civil rights investigation. (The New York Times)
The United States Citizenship and Immigration Services issued a notice confirming that, in accordance with the policy of the Trump administration, the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Somali nationals will be terminated on [specific date], citing improvements in the situation in Somalia. The program is designed to protect immigrants who cannot safely return to their home countries and currently covers [number] Somali nationals, with an additional [number] applications under review. (The New York Times)
According to lawyers and human rights activists, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials in Minnesota recently arrested dozens of Somali refugees (possibly over 100), including children, and sent many to detention centers in Texas. Previously, the Trump administration indicated that it would review thousands of refugee cases through new background checks and took action this week to terminate the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Somali nationals. (The New York Times)
According to CNN, last Friday, approximately 1,000 U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agents began deploying to Minneapolis, with the deployment expected to continue through the weekend. Prior to this, around 2,000 Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers and agents were already stationed in the area. CBP Commander Gregory Bovino stated that, under Operation Metro Surge, hundreds of federal agents are being deployed to Minneapolis and warned that undocumented immigrants, especially those with criminal records, should be very afraid. CNN also reported that Bovino had already led hundreds of agents in targeted operations in the area last week, including knocking on doors house by house. CBS News reported that, according to a Department of Homeland Security official, 800 CBP agents were deployed locally in Minneapolis, describing it as the largest operation in the history of the Department of Homeland Security.
According to a report by The New York Times, secret testimony records provided to a special grand jury in Atlanta in 2022 revealed that several senior Republicans privately dismissed President Trump's claims of widespread fraud in the 2020 election during the Georgia election interference investigation. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) described these claims as unsettling; Governor Brian Kemp characterized Trump's efforts to persuade Georgia legislators to intervene in the election as futile; former Georgia House Speaker David Ralston called the fake elector scheme the most ridiculous thing he had ever heard. The New York Times obtained these testimony records this week after Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee last week overturned an order, originally set to take effect in November 2023, that restricted the disclosure of most investigative materials.
Republicans on the House Oversight Committee stated that they will initiate contempt of Congress proceedings against former President Bill Clinton next week, as he failed to appear before the committee to testify in its investigation into the Jeffrey Epstein case, as required by a subpoena. They warned that they may take similar action against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton if she misses her scheduled testimony today. In an eight-page letter, the Clintons' lawyers argued that the subpoenas are invalid and legally unenforceable, that they have provided sworn affidavits instead of in-person testimony, denied possessing relevant information, and accused Chairman James Comer of advancing a politically motivated agenda aimed at imprisoning them. (Axios)
The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) and its two studios informed a federal judge in the Miami Division of the Southern District of Florida that they would file a motion by the [date] to dismiss President Trump's $1 billion defamation lawsuit and requested the court to stay discovery, allowing only limited jurisdictional discovery. In court documents filed on Monday, they argued that Florida lacks personal jurisdiction over the case because the program was not created, produced, or broadcast in Florida. They also contended that Trump's complaint failed to state a valid defamation claim or a cause of action under Florida's Deceptive and Unfair Trade Practices Act. Additionally, they argued that Trump could not prove identifiable damages, given his successful re-election after the program aired, including a significant victory in Florida. The BBC warned that discovery would be overly broad and burdensome and could raise complex issues related to the First Amendment and cross-border matters.
A state court in Virginia yesterday dismissed an emergency application filed by Republican lawmakers seeking to block a proposed constitutional amendment. The amendment could potentially allow Democratic lawmakers to redraw Virginia's congressional districts as part of efforts to counter Republican gerrymandering. The Tazewell County Circuit Court rejected the request for a temporary restraining order, stating that the court cannot intervene during the legislative process of a constitutional amendment and may only review the matter after the legislature has completed the relevant procedures.
The Supreme Court held oral arguments yesterday regarding Idaho and West Virginia's bans on transgender girls participating in women's school sports teams. These two cases could impact approximately 27 states with similar laws. The justices focused not only on the substantive issues of the cases—such as how to define sex, the appropriate level of constitutional scrutiny to apply, and whether these bans constitute unlawful discrimination—but also on preliminary matters. For instance, in the Idaho case, there was discussion about whether the case might become moot due to lack of standing after the plaintiff, Lindsay Hecox, attempted to withdraw from the lawsuit and cease participation. This raised concerns about compelling an unwilling plaintiff to remain involved in a politically charged legal dispute. Conservative justices appeared inclined to uphold the bans, although several also expressed interest in issuing narrower rulings that would leave room for states that maintain inclusive transgender sports policies. (CNN)
Greenland's Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen stated yesterday that Greenland would prefer to remain part of the Kingdom of Denmark rather than join the United States. Just the day before, officials from the governments of the United States and Denmark were scheduled to meet at the White House today. Nielsen refuted President Trump's claim that he would seek to annex Greenland regardless of its willingness, and stated that if Greenland had to choose between the United States and Denmark now, it would choose Denmark—along with NATO, the Kingdom of Denmark, and the European Union. (The New York Times)

Actions of the Trump administration

According to informed sources, President Trump criticized a group of U.S. prosecutors during a photo event at the White House on Thursday, calling them weak and incompetent, and complaining about their slow pace in failing to promptly prosecute suspects he supports. Last week, dozens of U.S. prosecutors in charge of prosecutor offices across the country went to the White House, expecting only a routine ceremonial photo event. After Attorney General Pam Bondi introduced the group of prosecutors, Trump told them that their work efficiency was low and stated that their performance made the jobs of Bondi and Deputy Attorney General Todd Branch more difficult. (The Wall Street Journal)
Michigan Democratic Senator Elissa Slotkin ( ) said on Monday that federal prosecutors in Washington, D.C., are investigating her for her role in helping produce a video urging military personnel to resist illegal orders. Slotkin stated that she learned of the matter after the office of U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, Channing Phillips ( ), emailed the Senate Sergeant at Arms requesting a meeting with Slotkin or her private attorney. Phillips's office declined to confirm or deny any investigation, and it remains unclear what specific criminal activity officials believe the video involves. (The New York Times)
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appointed two obstetrician-gynecologists to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices yesterday. These two doctors have strongly criticized vaccination, including during pregnancy. The two new members appointed by HHS are Kimberly Biss and Adam Ulato. The Washington Post reported that a review of their past interviews, podcasts, and social media content revealed that their criticism extends far beyond opposition during the pandemic. In a December 2022 podcast episode, Biss stated: "I wasn't an anti-vaxxer before, but I am now." She later described the vaccine industry as "disgusting" and added: "If I have my way, my grandchildren will never receive any vaccines." (The Washington Post)
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Assistant Chief Counsel James Jim Joseph Rodden has returned to work at the Dallas Immigration Court after being identified by the Texas Observer as the operator of the GlomarResponderX account, which posted white supremacist and other hateful content. Following the Observer's initial report, Rodden was apparently removed from the federal immigration court's schedule. ICE stated that its Office of Professional Responsibility understood the seriousness of the allegations and would address them, but no further public updates have been provided since. After receiving a tip yesterday, the Observer visited the Dallas Immigration Court and reported that Rodden was seated at the prosecutor's table in Judge Deitrich H. Sims' courtroom. (Texas Observer)

Trump Administration Lawsuit

Today, the federal court will hear Oregon's motion to dismiss the lawsuit filed by the Department of Justice. The lawsuit seeks to obtain Oregon's statewide voter registration data, with Oregon arguing that the DOJ's complaint fails to state a substantial claim. Previously, Oregon refused to provide an unredacted statewide voter file, instead offering voter data accessible through public records channels. The Department of Justice subsequently sued Oregon and its Secretary of State, Tobias Read. The DOJ cited the National Voter Registration Act, the Help America Vote Act, and the Civil Rights Act of 1960. Oregon voters and a nonprofit organization have intervened in the case, warning that providing an unredacted file would expose sensitive personal information.
A federal judge in Boston has suggested that the Trump administration consider issuing a student visa to 19-year-old Babson College student Annie Lucia Lopez Bellosa to resolve the alleged bureaucratic chaos surrounding her case. Lopez Bellosa was deported to Honduras in violation of a court order. U.S. District Judge Richard Stearns proposed the visa solution during a hearing yesterday. Previously, the government acknowledged that an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer made an error by failing to properly flag the order prohibiting Lopez Bellosa’s deportation; an assistant prosecutor apologized on behalf of the government. Stearns did not immediately rule on Lopez Bellosa’s request for relief—including a motion seeking to hold officials in contempt—but asked the government what remedy it proposed given that a real person’s life is at stake. (Reuters)