Germany's new Federal Diet (lower house of parliament) election day officially begins, determining the next Chancellor. Since there is no "election silence period" in place, the candidates in this German election have essentially continued their campaigns until the very last moment.

During his visit, Chancellor Scholz attended a rally in the eastern German city of Potsdam, while Friedrich Merz, the frontrunner in all polls from the CDU/CSU alliance, participated in an event in Munich, southern Germany.

2月21日，在德国科隆，德国社会民主党（社民党）总理候选人、现任总理朔尔茨在竞选集会上讲话。新华社记者张帆摄

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) also held an event in Berlin. Lars Klingbeil, co-leader of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) to which Scholz belongs, reminded attendees at an event that there are still % of voters who have not yet decided who to vote for.

"Ultimately, the result will be very close," said Kleinbiel. "Scholz is the right person for the chancellorship, and we will fight until the last minute." He was referring to the time when polling stations close.

This situation is related to the results of voting intention polls. The relevant polls show that the Union party will easily take the top spot, while the SPD could even be pushed to third place by the AfD.

Who has the upper hand?

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In this federal election, the political parties that have garnered the most attention from the German public are the Union parties, the SPD, the German Greens, and the populist party AfD, which has seen the strongest rise in recent years.

On [Month Day], in Potsdam, Germany, Friedrich Merz, the chancellor candidate of Germany's Union parties, speaks at a campaign rally. Photo by Du Zheyu, Xinhua News Agency. (Note: Replace [Month Day] with the specific date mentioned in the original text, as it was not provided in the content.)

In this election, the Union parties have focused their campaign on the issue of immigration. Friedrich Merz, the Union's candidate for chancellor, believes that only by addressing public concerns about illegal immigration can the rise of right-wing extremists be stopped. The Union also advocates adhering to Germany's "debt brake" principle, promoting tax cuts, increasing aid to Ukraine, and boosting defense spending. The SPD (Social Democratic Party) aims to reduce taxes for German citizens, strengthen border controls to curb illegal immigration, and fund infrastructure and public investment through borrowing. The German Green Party supports reforming the "debt brake," introducing debt-financed investment funds, and maintaining subsidies for electric vehicles. Meanwhile, the AfD (Alternative for Germany) takes a hardline stance on immigration while proposing tax reductions, cutting bureaucratic red tape, and calling for an end to sanctions against Russia.

How is the result produced?

According to the German electoral system, voters do not directly elect the Chancellor; instead, they elect members of parliament, who then choose the Chancellor.

The new German electoral law stipulates that the Bundestag has a fixed number of seats. The Bundestag holds legislative authority and is responsible for electing the Federal Chancellor. All German citizens who have reached the age of majority by election day are eligible to vote, and voters can participate either in person or by postal ballot.

Each voter has two votes: the first vote is for the direct candidate in their electoral district, and the second vote is for their preferred political party. Currently, Germany has a total of federal electoral districts, which means that Members of Parliament will enter the Bundestag directly as winners of their respective districts. The remaining seats will be allocated proportionally to the political parties based on the number of second votes they receive. The more votes a party garners, the more of its candidates will enter the Bundestag.

After the voting concludes, if a single party secures more than half of the seats, it can directly form the government. However, this scenario is extremely rare. Therefore, parties typically need to negotiate and form a ruling coalition to ensure a majority in the Bundestag.

What are the challenges in forming a government?

According to the German Basic Law, the first session of the Bundestag must be convened within a specified number of days after the election, during which the members will elect the new Federal Chancellor. Typically, the chancellor candidate from the party that receives the most votes is nominated for the position. The nominated candidate becomes Federal Chancellor upon securing the support of more than half of the Bundestag members, and the German Federal President must complete the appointment of the new chancellor within a set number of days. If the members fail to reach an agreement and all subsequent votes are unsuccessful, the President will dissolve the parliament and call for a new election. Until the new government is formed, the incumbent government will continue to operate.

According to current polling data, the Union party is highly likely to secure the most seats in the Bundestag.

German media believes that, given the repeated claims by the CDU/CSU chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz that he would not cooperate with the Alternative for Germany (AfD), the most likely outcomes at present are either a "CDU/CSU + SPD" or a "CDU/CSU + Greens" government structure. However, due to disagreements on immigration and economic issues, and Merz's public statements that he would cancel some policies of the Scholz government if he becomes chancellor, the formation of a "CDU/CSU + SPD" government has become more difficult. At the same time, if the CDU/CSU and the Greens were to form a coalition government, the new government might end up fracturing due to endless inter-party quarrels, much like Scholz's "traffic light" coalition.

Merkz recently proposed tightening immigration policies and attempted to leverage votes from far-right parties to push the Bundestag to pass related proposals. Some experts believe that traditional mainstream parties in Germany have long maintained an unspoken agreement to preserve political stability. However, Merkz's approach has undermined this tacit understanding, leading to a decline in willingness to compromise among parties and increasing divisions, which may cast a shadow over future government formation.