Not long after the start of the new year, international coffee prices have surged dramatically. A report from the International Coffee Organization shows that the coffee price index has increased by % compared to the same period last year, with the monthly composite indicator price (ICO) averaging . cents per pound in . On January , the price of Arabica coffee futures on the ICE Futures U.S. in New York surpassed cents per pound, reaching a -year high and marking a staggering % increase over the past year. By January , statistics released by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics at the Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo, revealed that the average price of a -kilogram bag of Arabica coffee reached . reais, setting a historic record since the institution began tracking this data in .

The price storm that has been raging since last year is profoundly altering the existing landscape of the global coffee production and supply chain.

Extreme weather can be considered the primary culprit behind the current coffee bean price surge. Currently, % of the world's coffee beans are produced in five countries, including Brazil and Vietnam. However, extreme weather conditions in the main producing areas have led to a tight global coffee bean inventory, further driving up prices. It is understood that Brazil, the world's largest producer of Arabica coffee, has been hit by consecutive droughts and heavy rains, leading to a decline in both the yield and quality of coffee beans, with the / year inventory expected to drop to the lowest level in years; Vietnam, the main producer of Robusta coffee, has seen a % drop in production due to drought and typhoons.

On the supply side, the significant shortage has triggered a chain reaction. The soaring prices of coffee beans have forced many small and medium-sized coffee businesses and roasters to raise product prices to maintain profits. For example, coffee companies in Japan, Italy, and other countries have announced price increases ranging from % to %. Some businesses are reducing costs by shrinking portion sizes or adjusting product structures. For instance, certain food and beverage companies in South Korea recently introduced "bean-free coffee" drinks, which replace coffee beans with other ingredients to alleviate the pressure of rising raw material costs. Large chain coffee brands, with their substantial purchasing volumes and strong bargaining power—some having secured procurement agreements in advance—face relatively lower cost pressures in the short term.

Journalists have learned that some domestic coffee chain companies are reducing costs and stabilizing supply by strengthening supply chain integration, such as establishing their own cultivation bases and forming long-term partnerships with suppliers. On the consumer side, as coffee prices rise, price-sensitive consumers may reduce their purchase frequency or opt for lower-priced alternatives like tea beverages, which could somewhat dampen overall coffee demand. This shift in consumer demand is further intensifying market segmentation. While some consumers increasingly prioritize coffee quality and experience—leaving room for growth in the premium and specialty coffee markets—the budget coffee segment may accelerate quality improvements to move toward the mid-range market in order to maintain profitability.

Industry analysts have pointed out that coffee bean prices may remain volatile at high levels globally in the short term. According to the International Coffee Organization, the global supply gap for coffee beans is expected to reach millions of bags this year, and the La Niña phenomenon could further impact production in major producing regions. In the long term, if climatic conditions improve, coffee bean supply is expected to gradually return to normal after this year, but the extent of price declines may be quite limited.

The surge in coffee bean prices is the result of a combination of factors including climate change and supply-demand imbalances, which have significantly impacted the global industrial chain and even accelerated industry reshuffling. The dramatic rise in coffee bean prices not only highlights the supply crisis but also acts as a catalyst for industrial transformation, pushing coffee companies to explore more efficient supply chains and sustainable development paths under pressure. Whether it's precision farming aided by technology or cost optimization brought about by innovative extraction techniques, these will continue to inject new vitality into the coffee market. The resilience of the supply chain and the upgrading of consumer demand will be the core variables for future market development.

The humble coffee bean is enough to connect the world. This aromatic cup of coffee has long transcended its status as a mainstream beverage, offering an excellent perspective for us to understand the dynamics of global supply chains and the evolution of consumer culture, providing a vivid example.