On [month and day], the head of Slovakia's largest natural gas supplier company stated that the company had started importing Russian natural gas via the TurkStream pipeline through Hungary since [month and day]. This is a direct consequence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

On [specific date], after the expiration of the [number]-year contract for the transit of Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky decided not to renew the agreement. Starting from [specific date], the transportation of Russian natural gas through Ukraine to Slovakia was halted.

The "energy earthquake" triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict has shifted global attention to the reshaping of energy supply and delivery routes. Leveraging its unique geopolitical advantages and solid energy foundation, Turkey has emerged as a central player in this international energy game, becoming the focus of widespread attention.

"Energy Transfer Golden Key"

Turkey is situated at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, strategically controlling the vital passage between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean. Its unique geographical location, like a "golden key to energy transit" bestowed by nature, endows it with a strong inherent advantage to become a central hub for energy distribution and transfer.

From a geopolitical vantage point, Russia's decision to route its natural gas through Turkey en route to Europe not only deftly sidesteps the risks posed by the volatile situation in Ukraine but also effectively "shortens the distance" of the transportation route. This significantly reduces shipping mileage, lowers costs, and markedly improves delivery efficiency, thereby charting a safer, more efficient, and stable new energy supply corridor for Europe.

The company began importing Russian natural gas through the "TurkStream" pipeline this month, with deliveries expected to double starting next month. The agreement reached with Gazprom is valid until [year], and importing Russian natural gas via the "TurkStream" pipeline is primarily aimed at reducing energy costs.

Over the years, Turkey has made significant strides in the natural gas infrastructure sector, reaping substantial rewards. A series of pipeline projects, such as "TurkStream" and "Blue Stream," have taken root like robust "energy backbones" and continue to operate steadily. Among them, the "TurkStream" pipeline boasts an annual gas transmission capacity of billions of cubic meters. These completed pipelines not only erect a solid "protective wall" for Turkey's domestic energy needs but also lay a foundational framework for cross-border energy transportation.

Particularly noteworthy is the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline, which officially commenced operations this year. Like an energy dragon, it traverses from the Caspian Sea to Europe, shouldering the critical task of transporting more natural gas from Russia and even Central Asia, thereby underscoring Turkey's pivotal role in the regional energy transport landscape.

In the energy sector, Turkey has consistently maintained a pioneering and enterprising stance, meticulously building a diversified natural gas supply framework. Beyond its close gas supply cooperation with Russia, Turkey has actively "expanded its network of partnerships outward," collaborating with neighboring countries such as Azerbaijan and Iran to establish multiple gas pipelines and concurrently introduce abundant resources.

Not only that, but Turkey's natural gas exploration and extraction in the Black Sea region have also flourished at multiple sites, leading to steady growth in domestic energy production. A diversified and dynamic energy supply system enables Turkey to not only ensure domestic energy consumption and supply but also allocate surplus natural gas to the European market, solidifying its position as an energy transit hub.

Meanwhile, BOTAŞ Petroleum Pipeline Corporation, Turkey's state-owned natural gas pipeline operator, has been committed to enhancing energy supply security and promoting the diversification of natural gas sources. It has heavily invested in the research and development of natural gas storage facilities. The storage capacity of the underground gas storage expansion (Phase III) project has increased from hundreds of millions of cubic meters to billions of cubic meters, with daily extraction capacity rising from millions of cubic meters to tens of millions of cubic meters. The project has now been largely completed.

Turkey aims to establish itself as a regional and even global hub for the natural gas industry. Becoming a key energy transit country would not only allow Turkey to reap substantial transit fee revenues but also grant it a voice in the international energy market. By deeply integrating into the European energy market ecosystem, it would further drive the vigorous development of related domestic industries.

Facing multiple pressures

However, the convergence of a window of opportunity and resource endowment does not imply a path free of obstacles. Currently, Turkey faces a series of challenges, including transportation capacity bottlenecks, funding difficulties, political headwinds, and fierce market competition.

Although Turkey boasts a considerable scale of natural gas pipeline infrastructure, its current transit efficiency still falls short. Turkey has five major natural gas pipelines with a total designed annual transmission capacity of billions of cubic meters. However, most of this capacity must first meet Turkey's growing domestic demand, while Europe's annual demand for Russian gas reaches hundreds of billions of cubic meters. Therefore, Turkey needs to further expand its pipeline network and enhance transmission efficiency, making the task of expanding and upgrading energy infrastructure still formidable.

Compared to the previously globally spotlighted "Nord Stream" pipeline's peak annual design capacity of delivering billions of cubic meters to Europe, the gap between the two becomes even more pronounced. For Turkey to assume the pivotal role of Europe's energy hub, it must significantly expand its natural gas transportation network and comprehensively enhance pipeline delivery potential. This entails continuous massive financial investments and a long, arduous construction period. Under the current circumstances, whether it's Turkey or Russia, bearing this burden is an "enormous pressure."

In theory, Turkey could seek financing from international financial institutions and multinational energy giants, but in practice, this is not easy. The strong constraint of funding gaps has already become a "roadblock" for Turkey in building an energy hub. Additionally, the project faces unpredictable geopolitical risks.

In recent years, driven by geopolitical calculations, the European Union has vigorously pursued an energy "decoupling from Russia" strategy, aiming to completely eliminate its reliance on Russian gas by the end of the year. Against this backdrop, even if Turkey successfully provides stable and efficient natural gas transit services, significant uncertainty remains as to whether European nations, considering factors such as political alignment and sanctions against Russia, would be willing to import Russian natural gas on a large scale.

Moreover, in recent years, the European energy market has increasingly presented a diversified competitive landscape with multiple players vying for dominance. Countries are actively exploring alternative energy supply solutions.

For instance, Norway, with its abundant offshore natural gas reserves, has been intensifying its "dumping offensive" in the European market. North African countries, located close to Europe, continuously supply gas through pipelines across the Mediterranean. Traditional oil and gas producers in the Middle East are vigorously developing liquefied natural gas (LNG) to compete in the European market. Meanwhile, the United States, seizing the opportunity presented by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has openly declared its ambition to become Europe's primary energy supplier.

Currently, the "endgame process" of the Russia-Ukraine conflict may accelerate. During his presidential campaign, U.S. President Trump stated that if the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends, there is hope for the restoration of Ukraine's natural gas pipeline. Turkey may have little opportunity and time left.