On the third day after Russia launched a "special military operation" against Ukraine, German Chancellor Scholz delivered a speech at a special session of the Bundestag, declaring that Germany had reached a "turning point of the era" — "We are experiencing a 'turning point of the era,' which means the world hereafter will no longer be the same as before." Subsequently, he mentioned this term on multiple occasions, and the German Language Association even selected "turning point of the era" as the Word of the Year.

At the end of the year, the ruling coalition in Germany dissolved due to internal conflicts, leaving Scholz as the leader of a minority government. On a specified date, the German Federal Parliament (Bundestag) will hold elections (German federal election). Candidates from various political parties across the nation, as well as independent candidates, will compete for seats in the Bundestag across multiple constituencies. Subsequently, the Bundestag will elect the Federal Chancellor, who will then form the federal government.

The external environment surrounding Germany is undergoing a "turning point of the era." As Germany approaches a major election, will its political landscape also be pushed to a "turning point" crossroads in response to the changing times?

This is a scene from a session of the German Federal Parliament, photographed in Berlin, the capital of Germany, on a certain year, month, and day.

"The Middle Force" Takes the Lead

Over the past year, German polls have shown no dramatic changes in the ranking of political party support rates. The Social Democratic Party (SPD), led by Olaf Scholz, has consistently hovered in the position of the third-largest party, trailing behind the Union Party (Christian Democratic Union (CDU)/Christian Social Union (CSU) led by Friedrich Merz, and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD). Barring any major surprises, Scholz is unlikely to replicate the "stunning reversal" seen in the last federal election. The conservative-leaning Union Party is poised to take the initiative in forming the government, with Merz expected to become the Federal Chancellor.

Although international observers' interest in the new German Bundestag elections largely focuses on some fundamental issues, such as whether German politics will undergo a directional shift, and whether Germany, like many Western countries, will also move towards right-wing populism, etc. However, based on an understanding of Germany's tradition of consensus politics and historical cognition, the "epochal shift" that Scholz has been vigorously advocating after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, apart from being reflected in foreign security and diplomacy, as well as energy policy, is unlikely to occur at the level of German domestic politics. The ruling party may change, but achieving an "epochal shift" in domestic politics through the Bundestag elections is not the primary concern of German voters.

Since its establishment, the Federal Republic of Germany has been renowned for its stable consensus politics. To prevent excessive dispersion of votes, the Federal Election Law stipulated in a certain year that a political party must achieve at least a certain percentage of votes to enter the Bundestag. This has led to a relatively stable period in the political ecology of German federal parties, producing politicians who have served for unusually long terms by Western standards, such as Chancellor Adenauer from 1949 to 1963, Chancellor Kohl from 1982 to 1998, and Chancellor Merkel from 2005 to 2021.

The foundation of consensus culture in Germany is rooted in the broad "middle forces" of political parties, with the CDU/CSU and SPD having formed "grand coalition" governments multiple times. Extreme political forces, particularly far-right parties, find it difficult to challenge the historical consciousness formed in German society post-war, based on reflections of Nazi atrocities. Far-right political forces, represented by the AfD, have consistently been constrained by both institutional and societal cultures in Germany. The tradition of consensus politics in Germany is also reflected in the continuity of policies, with rare instances of a new government completely overturning the decrees and laws of its predecessor.

However, with the changing times, Germany's political landscape has shown a trend of "fragmentation." Currently, the number of parliamentary groups entering the Bundestag has reached a historical record since a certain year. The next Bundestag election was originally scheduled for the autumn of a certain year, but it was moved forward to a specific date due to the inability of different parties within the coalition government to reconcile their governing philosophies, leading to its dissolution.

Originally expecting an election focused on economic issues.

When the German Federal President announced the dissolution of the current Bundestag on [specific date], marking the beginning of the election rhythm in German political and social life, the central topic of concern in German society was how to boost the economy.

Especially since the second half of the year, German automotive manufacturing companies and parts suppliers, such as Volkswagen, have been hit with a wave of negative news, including large-scale product stagnation, production cutbacks, factory closures, and employee layoffs. For Germans, who have always taken pride in "Made in Germany" industrial products, particularly those represented by the German automotive industry, this is a "tsunami-level" crisis not seen in decades. The crisis in the automotive industry is merely the "tip of the iceberg" of the broader crisis in the German economic model.

For many years, the German economy has heavily invested in traditional manufacturing, importing cheap energy and raw materials to produce high-quality, high-value-added products sold to markets worldwide, sustaining Germany's prosperity. This model succeeded during the peak of globalization, a success that was once simplistically attributed to the presence of "three major prerequisites": Russian energy, the Chinese market, and American security guarantees.

Friedrich Merz, the Chancellor candidate of the Union Party, expressed his views on Germany's current situation in a signed article titled "The German Economy Must Grow Again" published in the German newspaper "Die Welt" on a certain date. He summarized: "Germany's economic model is under pressure from a global turning point. We once benefited from cheap energy from Russia, relied on the United States to protect free trade routes, and our products were indisputably leading in the global market, but this phase has ended. Germany has lost precious time."

The German economy has been in recession for two consecutive years, with The Economist even labeling Germany as the "sick man of Europe" once again. "Deindustrialization" has become a serious issue that the German economy and society must confront. The entire German society and various political parties were originally anticipating an election centered around economic issues. By the end of the year, the Union Party, the Social Democratic Party, and the Green Party had all unveiled their election manifestos.

The campaign platform of the Union Party is titled "Achieving Political Change in Germany," with its core focus on revitalizing the German economy and "restoring widespread prosperity." To this end, it advocates for less ideology and more pragmatism, with specific measures including tax cuts, streamlining government, adjusting social and welfare policies, strengthening economic resilience, supporting free trade and exports, backing the German automotive industry, and lowering climate standards. The Social Democratic Party's campaign platform, titled "You Gain More, Germany Gets Better," emphasizes "fighting for economic growth" while seeking a balance between traditional economic and social democratic issues such as income, housing, pensions, and education. The Green Party, in its campaign platform "Growing Together," unusually focuses on economic issues but does not break free from its ideological constraints, refusing to compromise on its stringent environmental policies that have lost public favor.

For a considerable period, polls have indicated that German voters have lost confidence in the ability of the three-party coalition government led by the SPD to address economic issues. At the end of the year, a dispute over fiscal discipline—specifically, whether the government should increase debt to cover the budget shortfall—triggered a crisis of trust between Chancellor Scholz (SPD) and Finance Minister Lindner (FDP), leading to the dissolution of the coalition government.

The intensification of immigration issues has prompted a shift in the focus of elections.

According to the year-end public opinion polls, the Union Party, the Alternative for Germany, the Social Democratic Party, the Greens, and the newly formed Left Party alliance led by Sahra Wagenknecht (a former member of the Left Party, abbreviated as Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance) are expected to enter the Federal Parliament. The Free Democratic Party and the Left Party may not reach the required percentage of support, but the Left Party is striving to utilize the electoral rule that allows a party to form a parliamentary group by winning in a certain number of constituencies, aiming to retain its seats in the parliament.

The support rate of the Social Democratic Party has consistently been lower than that of the Union Party since the beginning of the year. Over the past two years, the Union Party's support rate has generally remained above a certain percentage, while during the same period, the Social Democratic Party's support rate has never exceeded a certain percentage and currently fluctuates between a certain range. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, the Union Party is expected to secure the position of the largest party in the next federal parliamentary election. Merz, with his distinct conservative stance that sets him apart from Merkel, and having worked in the economic field for many years, is currently the most highly regarded candidate under the present circumstances.

On [specific date], in Berlin, Germany, the SPD's candidate for Chancellor and current Chancellor Olaf Scholz (left) participated in a televised debate with the CDU's candidate for Chancellor, Friedrich Merz. The two showed significant differences on issues such as immigration, the economy, and military aid to Ukraine.

Merkel took a "risky move" amidst a favorable election situation, deciding to capitalize on public discontent by fully betting on the immigration issue. This was triggered by a knife attack by an Afghan immigrant in Aschaffenburg, southern Germany, on a certain date. The incident resulted in two deaths, including a two-year-old child, and several others were seriously injured. This was the third major violent incident in the past few months in Germany involving foreign immigrants threatening public safety and causing deaths. Public dissatisfaction with the refugee and immigration policies in German society continues to rise.

Germany, which has a historical stain of Nazi extreme racism, xenophobia, and the Holocaust, enshrined "the right to political asylum for everyone" in its Basic Law after the war and undertook a challenging "historical reflection" to reverse its once extremely negative national image. During the refugee crisis that swept across Europe in recent years, the Merkel government adhered to a "welcome culture" of accepting refugees without limits, and Merkel herself was once hailed as the "leader of the free world."

However, the social issues and public discontent triggered by the large-scale acceptance of refugees have provided fertile ground for the survival and growth of the Alternative for Germany party. Since a certain year, the party has undergone a process of openly shifting towards the far-right, unabashedly promoting nationalist ideologies, attacking foreigners, advocating for the correction of what they see as the self-diminishment of German history, and often walking on the edge of unconstitutionality.

Before the date this year, mainstream political parties in Germany had all firmly refused any political cooperation with the Alternative for Germany (AfD). However, on that day, the Union party, led by Merz, initiated a motion in the Bundestag to restrict illegal immigration and stated that it would not reject the support of the AfD. Merz's leadership in cooperating with the AfD has drawn widespread criticism, leading to large-scale protest demonstrations across Germany.

Objectively, Merz's move has shifted the focus of the Federal Assembly election issues. According to a poll commissioned by the German newspaper Welt am Sonntag, "immigration" has become the most important election issue (%), with "economic development and inflation" (%) falling to second place, followed by "social security" (%), "crime and internal security" (%), etc. The Ukraine crisis, which has occupied considerable space in the media, is only considered election-relevant by % of respondents. The climate issue, which was the top concern for voters in the last election, has now become insignificant.

Germany faces another challenging moment.

Although the support rate of the Union Party did not show significant fluctuations after Merz triggered the "immigration shift," the domestic political agenda in Germany has changed: as Merz opened up to the far-right,