Recently, the state has issued a significant policy guiding the transfer of capital, technology, and labor-intensive industries to the western regions. This news has stirred up a storm of discussion across various sectors of society. Many are puzzled: is this a strategic backup, coordinated development, or does it carry deeper implications? What strategic considerations lie behind this? What impact will it have on China's future development? Through the news of the industrial migration to the west, Xueyin will delve into the historical context of the great western migration, exploring the inevitable path of China's rise.

The Lan Yu Case, One of the Four Great Mysteries of the Early Ming Dynasty. Lan Yu was a close associate of Crown Prince Zhu Biao in the military of the Ming Dynasty. Historical records show that Lan Yu repeatedly reminded Zhu Biao to be wary of Prince Zhu Di of Yan, and his loyalty to Zhu Biao was unquestionable. Zhu Yuanzhang, the founding emperor of the Ming Dynasty, assembled a top-tier group of military generals led by Lan Yu, including Fu Youde, Feng Sheng, and Wang Bi, all of whom had followed Chang Yuchun and Xu Da to defeat the Yuan Dynasty, accumulating rich combat experience. Lan Yu achieved the highest military honors in the Ming Dynasty, once leading troops to directly attack Buyur Lake. However, after Zhu Biao's death from illness, Zhu Yuanzhang immediately annihilated this most prestigious group of military generals in the Ming Dynasty, eliminating all high-ranking officers including Fu Youde. So, why did Zhu Biao's death lead to the downfall of the prestigious group of military generals including Lan Yu? The main reason was a significant mission failure before Zhu Biao's death.

According to historical records, in the 24th year of Hongwu, corresponding to the year 1391 AD, Emperor Taizu of the Ming Dynasty, considering the poor quality of land in the Jiangnan region, contemplated relocating the capital. He thus ordered Crown Prince Zhu Biao to inspect the Guanzhong and Luoyang areas. After returning to Nanjing from Shaanxi, Zhu Biao fell ill and passed away. Even while bedridden, he continuously advised Zhu Yuanzhang to move the capital from Nanjing to the Guanzhong and Luoyang regions. Originally inclined to move the capital to Guanzhong, Zhu Yuanzhang found his views completely aligned with those of his son. However, Zhu Biao's sudden death led to the complete abandonment of the capital relocation plan. Following Zhu Biao, two other sons of Empress Ma, the Prince of Qin and the Prince of Jin, also died before Zhu Yuanzhang in the years 1395 and 1398 respectively. Given that the Ming Dynasty strictly adhered to the patriarchal system, and with the three sons of Empress Ma having died one after another, Zhu Yuanzhang had no choice but to appoint his eldest grandson, Zhu Yunwen, as his successor. The young age of the new emperor inevitably led to other factions coveting the throne. Familiar with the historical risks of usurpation by relatives and powerful ministers during the Han Dynasty, Zhu Yuanzhang was motivated to eliminate the top-tier military generals of the Ming Dynasty. However, it is believed that a more significant reason was the stalling of the capital relocation plan supported by both Zhu Yuanzhang and Zhu Biao, which led to the Ming Dynasty abandoning its westward expansion strategy to eliminate the Mongol Yuan. With a young emperor unable to control powerful ministers, the grand plan of relocating the capital naturally could not be realized. Historically, relocating a capital has always faced significant resistance. For example, when Emperor Xiaowen of the Northern Wei Dynasty moved the capital from Pingcheng to Luoyang, the major resistance came from the vested interest groups formed in the original capital area. The Xianbei nobles, who were based in Pingcheng, naturally opposed moving to the Luoyang area controlled by Han Chinese scholar families, as it meant losing their wealth and power. Similarly, the economic costs of relocating a capital were high. During the Warring States period, when the State of Wei moved its capital from Anyi in the west to Daliang, it consumed a vast amount of time and money, which would have been unaffordable had Wei not been the wealthiest state at the time. Faced with such political resistance and economic pressure, a ruler without absolute power could not possibly achieve such a feat. The relocation of the capital from Yueyang to Xianyang during the reforms of Shang Yang was only accomplished with the full support of Duke Xiao of Qin and Shang Yang himself. As the core of power supported by both civil and military officials from Huaixi, after Zhu Biao's death, the Ming Dynasty could not complete the capital relocation, leading Zhu Yuanzhang to restructure the power framework. So, why did the inability to relocate the capital lead Zhu Yuanzhang to massacre the military generals, including Lan Yu? To answer this, one must understand Zhu Yuanzhang's military and political plans for the Ming Dynasty. His plans were similar to those of Kublai Khan's Yuan Dynasty, with direct descendants ruling the Han Chinese heartland and enfeoffed princes expanding territories outward. To this end, Zhu Yuanzhang enfeoffed nine sons in nine frontier fortresses, historically known as the Nine Frontier Fortresses, intending for these princes to train troops and then move north and west to eliminate the Mongol Yuan. Militarily, the guard-post system established by Zhu Yuanzhang combined military farming with civilian settlement, tailor-made for the Ming Dynasty's territorial expansion. The goal was to expand Ming territory towards the Western Regions and the area around Lake Baikal, where the Mongol Yuan court was located. In this plan, the core was to move the capital from Nanjing to Xi'an, not only because of the poor land in Jiangnan as mentioned by Zhu Yuanzhang but also to break free from the constraints of the Huaixi nobility and the southern scholar groups. Relocating the capital to Xi'an was also urgent because, besides the Mongol Yuan, the Ming Dynasty faced threats from the Timurid Empire in the west. In the year Zhu Yuanzhang died, Timur gathered a million troops to attack the Gansu region of the Ming Dynasty, aiming to destroy it.

Relocating the capital to Xi'an would transform the western region into a frontline fortress, closer to the Western Regions and the northern areas, making military operations to the north and west much more convenient. In contrast, deploying troops from Nanjing, where the Ming army was most numerous, would pose significant logistical challenges. If the capital relocation succeeded, the next step would be military campaigns to the Western Regions and the north. In this scenario, the elite military group led by Lan Yu and Fu Youde, who had experience fighting the Northern Yuan in the harsh lands beyond the Great Wall, would naturally be highly valued. Strategically, the subsequent fall of the Ming Dynasty also inversely proved the foresight of Zhu Yuanzhang's initial vision. The Ming Dynasty ultimately fell due to Li Zicheng's uprising and the Manchu invasion. Li Zicheng's uprising occurred in the Guanzhong region; had the Ming relocated its capital to Xi'an, local economic development would have prevented it from becoming the poorest area, thus averting the peasant uprising. Strategically, after the Manchus entered the pass, they quickly allied with the Qinghai-Tibet region, and the Qing Dynasty eventually executed a counterclockwise strategic maneuver, attacking Sichuan and Yunnan, leading to the fall of the Southern Ming court. The Qing's offensive route could have mimicked the Mongol conquest of the Song, where the Mongols first took the Qinghai-Tibet region, then invaded Sichuan from Yunnan, coordinating with the two lakes battlefield to ultimately destroy the Southern Song. The key to the success of both the Qing and Yuan dynasties was their simultaneous control of Mongolia and the Qinghai-Tibet region. Strategically, as long as the central dynasty controlled the Hexi Corridor, it could prevent the alliance of Mongolia and Qinghai-Tibet, avoiding a two-front war and the eventual destruction in the southwest. Zhu Yuanzhang, familiar with strategy, clearly understood this, which was why he insisted on relocating the capital to Xi'an. Reflecting on the Han and Tang dynasties, they launched military campaigns from Chang'an and the nine frontier garrisons, respectively destroying the Xiongnu and the Turks, thereby laying the foundation for two golden ages of China. Zhu Yuanzhang's military strategy aimed to emulate the Han and Tang strategies, using the elite military group led by Lan Yu as the spearhead to breach the Hexi Corridor, then separately annihilate the Mongol Yuan in Mongolia and the Qinghai-Tibet region. For this, Zhu Yuanzhang had long planned. He sent the elite military group led by Fu Youde to conquer Sichuan and Bashu, and later led 300,000 troops to capture Yunnan. These were rare strategic masterstrokes by Zhu Yuanzhang, capturing Sichuan and Yunnan, thus blocking the Mongol Yuan's route from Yunnan into the two lakes region of the Ming. If the Ming had relocated the capital to Xi'an as Zhu Yuanzhang planned, using it as a base to open the Hexi Corridor, it could have completely destroyed the Yuan Dynasty, then reopened the ancient Silk Road from Chang'an, integrating the entire Eurasian continent, bringing vast wealth and civilization to the Ming, potentially leading to the third peak of China's feudal dynasties. Since this was about external expansion, a top-tier military group was essential, hence the importance of Lan Yu, Fu Youde, etc. This also explains why Zhu Yuanzhang tolerated Lan Yu's arrogance until Zhu Biao's death, as these fierce generals were still needed for military campaigns to the northwest. However, all these plans abruptly ended with Zhu Biao's death, and the failure to relocate the capital sowed the seeds for the Ming's downfall. Although the Ming blocked the routes through Yunnan and Sichuan, the failure to continue expanding north and west from the nine frontier garrisons not only shrank the Ming's territory but also failed to open the Hexi Corridor. During the reign of Emperor Xuanzong of Ming, many important passes beyond the Great Wall were abandoned, leading to the Mongol invasion and the Tumu Crisis, marking the Ming's decline from prosperity. The greater harm came from the long-term failure to open the Hexi Corridor, allowing the Qing to quickly subdue the Qinghai-Tibet region after conquering Mongolia. The Mongolian Plateau and Qinghai-Tibet region eventually fell into Qing hands, and the Qing, following the Mongol strategic route, attacked from both east and west, ultimately destroying the Ming. For Zhu Yuanzhang, after Zhu Biao's death, the Ming could no longer relocate its capital, making it difficult to eliminate external enemies, so internal threats had to be eradicated to prolong the Ming's fate, which became the core of Zhu Yuanzhang's anxiety. So, where did the internal enemies come from? They also came from the top-tier military group led by Lan Yu. Besides being military leaders, Lan Yu, Fu Youde, and others were almost all from the Huaixi noble group. Since external expansion was unlikely, the nobles with military power and the united Huaixi faction became the greatest internal threat to the Zhu family's regime. Thus, the Lan Yu case erupted, and the early Ming's elite military group collapsed overnight, greatly ensuring the rule of Zhu Yunwen and his descendants in Han China. Zhu Yuanzhang did not target the princes of the nine frontier garrisons, hoping that after stabilizing Han China, he could again relocate the capital and wage external wars. Therefore, Zhu Biao's death can be seen as a turning point in the Ming's strategy. After the Jingnan Campaign, the rule of Han China was shaken again, and by the time Emperor Chengzu Zhu Di stabilized the central plains and launched wars against the Mongol Yuan from Beijing, too much time had been lost. Moreover, strategically, without opening the Hexi Corridor to sever the east-west connection of Mongolia, even victories in the northeast could not achieve the strategic goal of annihilating the Mongol Yuan. Compared to the Han Dynasty, Zhu Di's northern expeditions were similar to the Han generals like Li Guang's campaigns against the Xiongnu in North and Northeast China, which did not change the overall strategic situation of the Han against the Xiongnu. It was not until the reign of Emperor Wu of Han that Wei Qing and Huo Qubing first opened the Hexi Corridor, directly leading to the division of the Xiongnu.