On [specific date], the by-election for the chairmanship of the Taiwan People's Party concluded, with acting chairman Huang Guochang securing [number] votes and a [percentage]% vote share, defeating his opponent Cai Biru. Huang succeeded Ko Wen-je and officially assumed the role of the party's top leader. In [specific month] last year, the party's former chairman Ko Wen-je was arrested and imprisoned, and he formally resigned as party chairman in [specific month] this year. This by-election is crucial for the future development of the Taiwan People's Party and holds significant implications for the evolution of Taiwan's political landscape.

The newly appointed chairman of the Taiwan People's Party, Huang Kuo-chang. Why was Huang Kuo-chang able to take over as party leader? The fact that Huang, with only a few months of party membership, could defeat the "founding mother" Tsai Pi-ru in the by-election is the result of multiple converging factors.

Securing the support of influential factions within the party. After Ko Wen-je was prosecuted and detained, Huang Kuo-chang faced a difficult political choice: to continue supporting Ko Wen-je or to decisively cut ties? Ultimately, he chose to align himself politically with Ko Wen-je, personally taking on the role of convener for the "emergency response team" to demonstrate his firm stance of "respecting Ko" and his determination to "save Ko." He even went so far as to pay a bail of ten thousand New Taiwan Dollars out of his own pocket to help Ko Wen-je resolve the immediate crisis. The decision to support Ko earned Huang Kuo-chang the trust of Ko Wen-je and his wife, Peggy Chen, as well as the backing of the "central faction" within the Taiwan People's Party, primarily composed of party officials and staff. On [date], when Ko Wen-je announced his resignation as party chairman, he specifically named Huang Kuo-chang as his successor. Subsequently, the party's central committee took advantage of the situation and elected Huang as acting chairman.

Huang Kuo-chang wields considerable personal political influence. In 2014, he rose to prominence through the "Anti-Trade in Services Agreement Movement" and later founded the "New Power Party," serving as its chairman. At the end of 2023, Huang was invited by Ko Wen-je to join the Taiwan People's Party (TPP). In January 2024, he was elected as a Taiwanese "legislator" and appointed as the TPP's caucus whip in the "Legislative Yuan." Known for his eloquence and aggressive style, Huang's "roaring-style questioning" in political debates has become highly distinctive, earning him a significant following and support among the Taiwanese public. Ko Wen-je even praised Huang as "one man worth several TPP legislators." In early 2024, Huang initiated the "One-on-One Protest," mobilizing over 10,000 people to take to the streets, demonstrating his strong mobilizing power. As a result, Huang's political influence on the island is notably greater than that of Tsai Pi-ru. Combined with endorsements from senior party figures, he holds a clear advantage in political competition.

The opponent is deeply embroiled in a public opinion storm. Tsai Pi-ru, a long-time comrade-in-arms of Ko Wen-je, carries the halo of being a "founding member" of the Taiwan People's Party and once served as an "at-large legislator" for the party. Typically, her roots within the party should be deeper than those of Huang Kuo-chang, but at a critical moment, Tsai chose to betray Ko Wen-je. After Ko was arrested and imprisoned, Tsai became entangled in the controversy over "retracting testimony," drawing successive attacks from Hsu Fu, Deputy Secretary-General of the Taiwan People's Party, and Chen Chih-han, Director of the party's legislative caucus, which made her highly controversial within the party. At the same time, she was also exposed by the media for alleged plagiarism in her master's thesis, forcing her to resign as a "legislator." Ultimately, under the influence of multiple factors, it was no surprise that Tsai Pi-ru lost to Huang Kuo-chang.

The prospects of the Taiwan People's Party remain far from optimistic. The conclusion of the party chairperson by-election marks the party's entry into the "post-Ko Wen-je era." At present, Huang Kuo-chang's election as party chairperson helps stabilize the Taiwan People's Party, preventing a tragic outcome of the members scattering once the leadership collapses. However, the party still faces numerous challenges and has not truly emerged from the "emergency room."

Huang Kuo-chang has obvious personal shortcomings. At the end of the year, he switched to the Taiwan People's Party, where his own foundation is not deeply rooted. Although elected as party chairman, Huang Kuo-chang's leadership authority still faces challenges from internal "factions" such as Huang Shan-shan and Tsai Pi-ru. Truly gaining control of the Taiwan People's Party remains an uphill battle. At the same time, Huang Kuo-chang is arrogant, stubborn, and prone to impulsive behavior—a leader who is "aggressive and hard-hearted." He has earned notorious nicknames like "the small-party extinguisher" and "political parasite." His domineering style not only undermines unity within the Taiwan People's Party but also risks triggering internal conflicts or even a split.

The transformation of a "one-person party" is fraught with difficulties. Following the regional leadership election in Taiwan, the Taiwan People's Party emerged as the most formidable "third force" in the island's political arena. At the time, then-party chairman Ko Wen-je, with his "nonsensical" political persona, created a new dynamic that transcended the traditional blue-green divide. He was also keen on using social media to engage with voters, attracting support from a segment of the younger population. For many voters in Taiwan, casting their ballots for the Taiwan People's Party was more about their personal fondness for Ko Wen-je and their dissatisfaction with the two major parties, the Kuomintang (blue) and the Democratic Progressive Party (green). However, as Ko became embroiled in corruption scandals, the party, which prided itself on being neither blue nor green, quickly lost its core leadership and saw a significant erosion of its base, with party support plummeting to single-digit percentages. The Taiwan People's Party that Huang Kuo-chang inherited is a far cry from what Ko Wen-je initially built. Pressing issues such as weak grassroots organization, ambiguous ideological direction, and a lack of political stars loom large. As a result, whether Huang Kuo-chang can steer the party out of its predicament remains to be seen.

The external environment of being "caught between the blue and green camps." After Ke Wen-je's downfall, the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) was left leaderless for a time, and both the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) sought to exploit the opportunity to divide the TPP's political resources and expand their own influence. The DPP, on one hand, employed judicial measures to aggressively target key members of the TPP, while on the other hand, it continued to launch media offensives, constantly exposing scandals to attack the TPP's long-touted image of "integrity" and "transparency," dealing a significant blow to the party's approval ratings. Meanwhile, the KMT leveraged local factions to exert influence, actively recruiting grassroots TPP council members in cities like Taichung and Hsinchu, steadily reaping the political benefits lost by the TPP. Under severe external pressure, the TPP's core support base rapidly eroded, making it difficult to sustain the "three-way standoff" in Taiwanese politics. How to preserve itself to the greatest extent has become the TPP's most pressing challenge.

The advocacy for "Taiwan independence" is losing popular support. Unlike Ko Wen-je's ambiguous stance on cross-strait relations, such as "cross-strait family ties" and the "five mutuals," Huang Kuo-chang himself has strong "Taiwan independence" tendencies. Huang built his career on "anti-China" rhetoric and has repeatedly clamored to "push Taiwan toward becoming a normal country," severely deviating from the island's mainstream public opinion that favors peace, development, exchange, and cooperation. This stance is clearly detrimental to the Taiwan People's Party's efforts to win over moderate voters. Looking at the current political landscape on the island, if Huang Kuo-chang does not change his cross-strait stance and continues to play the opportunistic strategy of "attacking the Greens while cozying up to the Blues," it will inevitably intensify conflicts with the Kuomintang. At the same time, if he completely loses his political identity, there is a risk of further voter erosion and being "dismembered and weakened" by the Democratic Progressive Party. By then, the tripartite political balance of "Blue, White, and Green" on the island may cease to exist, and the Taiwan People's Party's prospects for development will look grim...

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