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Global Briefing May 21

Iran Hardens Nuclear Stance as War Costs Mount

Iran's Supreme Leader ordered the country's near-weapons-grade enriched uranium kept inside Iran, breaking with a clause Trump had committed to Israel. A Congressional Research Service tally put US aircraft losses in the war at 42 worth $29 billion as Ukrainian forces claimed 400 sq km — the largest gains since Kursk — and Washington's $1.776 billion 'anti-weaponization' fund drew a Capitol Police lawsuit. Germany charged two Quds-Force operatives over a Berlin assassination plot; EasyJet booked a £552m loss; and Australia's productivity minister named rogue AI as a leading extinction risk.

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us · United States

Trump's Iran Pause: Narrowing Options

Donald Trump shelved a major new Iran strike and announced Monday talks after Gulf allies intervened, but Tehran denied asking for the pause and US interceptor stocks remain strained. Only one-third of Americans back the war. At home, Spokane-area fires destroyed at least 600 structures and forced 60,000 evacuations, while a Twin Falls shooting killed three victims.

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gb · United Kingdom

Burnham's Devolution Plan Hits Land and Money Limits

Andy Burnham pushed income-tax sharing, a written constitution and deeper devolution while NIESR warned that his pledges require tax rises or spending cuts. England and Wales received only 8% of normal July rainfall; official estimates put May-June heat deaths in England at 2,877, and the NFU warned that weak grain yields and depleted water could cause food shortages.

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fr · France

France Gironde Fire Threatens Nuclear Deterrent

The Gironde fire burned 42,000 hectares, destroyed about 240 homes and displaced 224,000 people before being controlled. It also forced protective action at M51 missile, Rafale and nuclear-research sites. World Weather Attribution found climate change doubled France's extreme fire conditions, turning adaptation from an environmental programme into a defence and industrial requirement.

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de · Germany

Germany's Risk Warnings Fail to Prevent Crises

The Berlin Pride attacker had been classified as a high-risk Islamist and ordered into deradicalisation before killing one woman and injuring dozens. Germany also recorded nearly 9,800 heat deaths, Rhine gauges fell below 2018 records and BMW announced up to 8,000 job cuts. The common failure was not foresight but the capacity to act on warnings already in hand.

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ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Hits Russia Deep, But Can't Stop Missiles

Russia exploited Ukraine's Patriot shortage with 35 missiles and 185 drones against Kyiv, killing nine, while Ukraine answered with a 635-drone assault on refineries, bomber bases and logistics sites across Russia. Kyiv's long-range campaign is growing faster than its ballistic defence. The war is becoming a contest between Ukraine's ability to impose costs and its allies' willingness to replace interceptors.

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tr · Turkey

Ozgur Ozel's New Party Challenges Erdogan Amid Security Focus

Ozgur Ozel's New Party began with 91 MPs and drew mayors away from the court-restored CHP, even as another CHP mayor joined 55 detainees in a corruption case. Parliament advanced conditional PKK reintegration under a security-first framework. The opposition has escaped one institutional trap, but it must now hold a broad coalition together without letting Erdogan define every contest as public order.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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ua97

Ukraine claims 400 sq km of southern territory and most of Kupiansk since winter, largest gains since Kursk

Ukrainian counterattacks have retaken more than 400 square kilometres in southern Ukraine since winter, recaptured most of the eastern city of Kupiansk, and seized settlements in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast since late April, according to a 20 May Institute for the Study of War assessment. Commander-in-Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi told the defence outlet Militarnyi in a 15 May interview that, as of 14 May, the count of Ukrainian offensive actions exceeded Russian ones — a shift Ukrainian officials are pairing with intensified deep-strike drone operations. The advances are the largest Ukrainian territorial gains since Kyiv's incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast in August 2024.

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Ukrainian counterattacks have retaken more than 400 square kilometres in southern Ukraine since winter, recaptured most of the eastern city of Kupiansk, and seized settlements in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast since late April, according to a 20 May Institute for the Study of War assessment. Commander-in-Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi told the defence outlet Militarnyi in a 15 May interview that, as of 14 May, the count of Ukrainian offensive actions exceeded Russian ones — a shift Ukrainian officials are pairing with intensified deep-strike drone operations. The advances are the largest Ukrainian territorial gains since Kyiv's incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast in August 2024.

us95

DOJ creates $1.776 billion 'anti-weaponization' fund for Trump allies; bipartisan backlash, Capitol Police lawsuit

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche announced a $1.776 billion "anti-weaponization" compensation fund Monday as part of a settlement in President Trump's $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS over a leak of his tax returns, drawing immediate bipartisan opposition over its scope, its likely beneficiaries, and the absence of congressional authorisation. Capitol Police Officer Harry Dunn and Metropolitan Police Officer Daniel Hodges sued Wednesday to block the fund, calling it "the most brazen act of presidential corruption this century"; Senators Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) demanded congressional review, and Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) said House Republicans will "try to kill" it. Money will flow from the Treasury Judgment Fund — the dollar figure marks the year of American independence — until December 1, 2028.

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Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche announced a $1.776 billion "anti-weaponization" compensation fund Monday as part of a settlement in President Trump's $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS over a leak of his tax returns, drawing immediate bipartisan opposition over its scope, its likely beneficiaries, and the absence of congressional authorisation. Capitol Police Officer Harry Dunn and Metropolitan Police Officer Daniel Hodges sued Wednesday to block the fund, calling it "the most brazen act of presidential corruption this century"; Senators Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) demanded congressional review, and Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) said House Republicans will "try to kill" it. Money will flow from the Treasury Judgment Fund — the dollar figure marks the year of American independence — until December 1, 2028.

ua95

Ukrainian drones strike Russian FSB headquarters in occupied Kherson, Zelensky says 100 casualties

Ukrainian drones struck a Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) headquarters in the occupied village of Henicheska Hirka in Kherson region on May 21, 2026, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported. The attack, carried out by the SBU's Special Operations Center 'A', also destroyed a Pantsir-S1 air defense system. Zelensky said Russian losses amounted to around 100 killed and wounded, a figure not independently verified.

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Ukrainian drones struck a Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) headquarters in the occupied village of Henicheska Hirka in Kherson region on May 21, 2026, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported. The attack, carried out by the SBU's Special Operations Center 'A', also destroyed a Pantsir-S1 air defense system. Zelensky said Russian losses amounted to around 100 killed and wounded, a figure not independently verified.

de95

German prosecutors charge two Iranian-Quds agents over Berlin plot to assassinate Volker Beck and Josef Schuster

The Federal Prosecutor in Karlsruhe charged two men on Thursday — Ali S., a Danish national arrested in Aarhus in June 2025, and Afghan national Tawab M., arrested in November 2025 — with intelligence activity and attempted murder on behalf of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, in a plot to assassinate Volker Beck, head of the German-Israeli Society, and Josef Schuster, president of the Central Council of Jews in Germany. Investigators say Ali S. was directed by the Quds Force in early 2025 to surveil the two men and two Jewish food retailers in Berlin, and in May 2025 recruited Tawab M., who agreed to procure a weapon for an unnamed third party. The indictment, filed before the Hanseatic Higher Regional Court in Hamburg, originated with a Mossad tip and lands amid heightened Iran-linked threat activity in Europe, including a 10 April arson attack on an Israeli restaurant in Munich.

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The Federal Prosecutor in Karlsruhe charged two men on Thursday — Ali S., a Danish national arrested in Aarhus in June 2025, and Afghan national Tawab M., arrested in November 2025 — with intelligence activity and attempted murder on behalf of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, in a plot to assassinate Volker Beck, head of the German-Israeli Society, and Josef Schuster, president of the Central Council of Jews in Germany. Investigators say Ali S. was directed by the Quds Force in early 2025 to surveil the two men and two Jewish food retailers in Berlin, and in May 2025 recruited Tawab M., who agreed to procure a weapon for an unnamed third party. The indictment, filed before the Hanseatic Higher Regional Court in Hamburg, originated with a Mossad tip and lands amid heightened Iran-linked threat activity in Europe, including a 10 April arson attack on an Israeli restaurant in Munich.

gb95

UK resets HS2: cost rises to £87.7-102.7 billion, London-Birmingham service delayed to 2036

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander announced a reset of the HS2 high-speed rail project in the Commons on Monday, putting the estimated cost of the London-Birmingham line at between £87.7 and £102.7 billion (€101.1-118.4 billion) and slipping service entry to 2036 from the original 2026 target. The final segment between Old Oak Common in the outer capital and Euston in central London will not open before 2040, according to the report by HS2 Ltd chief executive Mark Wild after a fifteen-month review. The project was launched in 2012 at an original budget of £37.2 billion; the Manchester and Leeds extensions were cut in 2021 and 2023, and French group Vinci, through joint ventures and its Taylor Woodrow subsidiary, builds a 90-kilometre Midlands section, Old Oak Common station and a Birmingham depot.

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Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander announced a reset of the HS2 high-speed rail project in the Commons on Monday, putting the estimated cost of the London-Birmingham line at between £87.7 and £102.7 billion (€101.1-118.4 billion) and slipping service entry to 2036 from the original 2026 target. The final segment between Old Oak Common in the outer capital and Euston in central London will not open before 2040, according to the report by HS2 Ltd chief executive Mark Wild after a fifteen-month review. The project was launched in 2012 at an original budget of £37.2 billion; the Manchester and Leeds extensions were cut in 2021 and 2023, and French group Vinci, through joint ventures and its Taylor Woodrow subsidiary, builds a 90-kilometre Midlands section, Old Oak Common station and a Birmingham depot.

tr95

Ankara appeals court voids CHP's 2023 congress, removes Özgür Özel and reinstates Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

The 36th Civil Chamber of the Ankara Regional Court of Justice ruled unanimously on Thursday that the Republican People's Party's (CHP) 38th Ordinary Elective Congress of 4-5 November 2023 was "absolutely null and void," temporarily removing current chair Özgür Özel and his entire central party leadership and reinstating former chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the pre-congress organs until the decision becomes final. The chamber overturned a 24 October 2025 lower-court ruling that had declared the case moot, and also annulled the CHP's 8 October 2023 Istanbul Provincial Congress along with every subsequent ordinary and extraordinary congress held by Turkey's oldest party. The party has two weeks to appeal to the Court of Cassation.

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The 36th Civil Chamber of the Ankara Regional Court of Justice ruled unanimously on Thursday that the Republican People's Party's (CHP) 38th Ordinary Elective Congress of 4-5 November 2023 was "absolutely null and void," temporarily removing current chair Özgür Özel and his entire central party leadership and reinstating former chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the pre-congress organs until the decision becomes final. The chamber overturned a 24 October 2025 lower-court ruling that had declared the case moot, and also annulled the CHP's 8 October 2023 Istanbul Provincial Congress along with every subsequent ordinary and extraordinary congress held by Turkey's oldest party. The party has two weeks to appeal to the Court of Cassation.

us92

Congressional report details 42 US aircraft lost or damaged in Iran war, costing $29 billion

At least 42 U.S. military aircraft have been lost or damaged since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on Feb. 28, according to a May 13 Congressional Research Service report. The losses include fighter jets, helicopters and drones, with repair or replacement costs contributing to a total war cost of about $29 billion. A tenuous ceasefire has been in place since April, but a peace deal remains elusive.

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At least 42 U.S. military aircraft have been lost or damaged since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on Feb. 28, according to a May 13 Congressional Research Service report. The losses include fighter jets, helicopters and drones, with repair or replacement costs contributing to a total war cost of about $29 billion. A tenuous ceasefire has been in place since April, but a peace deal remains elusive.

ua92

Ukraine launches 'unprecedented' security operation in five northern regions bordering Russia and Belarus

Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) and other defense forces launched enhanced security measures in five northern regions bordering Russia and Belarus, the General Staff reported on Thursday. The operation, described as 'unprecedented' in scale, includes counterintelligence and anti-sabotage activities aimed at preventing enemy infiltration. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian intelligence has evidence Russia is attempting to draw Belarus more directly into the war.

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Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) and other defense forces launched enhanced security measures in five northern regions bordering Russia and Belarus, the General Staff reported on Thursday. The operation, described as 'unprecedented' in scale, includes counterintelligence and anti-sabotage activities aimed at preventing enemy infiltration. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian intelligence has evidence Russia is attempting to draw Belarus more directly into the war.

fr90

Paris appeals court convicts Air France and Airbus of manslaughter over 2009 AF447 crash that killed 228

A Paris appeals court convicted Air France and Airbus of involuntary manslaughter Thursday over the June 1, 2009 crash of Flight AF447, ruling both companies "solely and entirely responsible" for France's worst aviation disaster, which killed all 228 aboard an Airbus A330 between Rio de Janeiro and Paris. The court imposed the statutory maximum fine of €225,000 on each, sums dismissed as token by victims' families, overturning a 2023 acquittal by a lower court. Airbus said it would appeal to the Court of Cassation.

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A Paris appeals court convicted Air France and Airbus of involuntary manslaughter Thursday over the June 1, 2009 crash of Flight AF447, ruling both companies "solely and entirely responsible" for France's worst aviation disaster, which killed all 228 aboard an Airbus A330 between Rio de Janeiro and Paris. The court imposed the statutory maximum fine of €225,000 on each, sums dismissed as token by victims' families, overturning a 2023 acquittal by a lower court. Airbus said it would appeal to the Court of Cassation.

us90

Iran's Supreme Leader orders enriched-uranium stockpile to stay in country, contradicting a key US demand

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive that the country's near-weapons-grade enriched uranium must not leave Iran, two senior Iranian sources told Reuters, hardening Tehran's stance on a central US demand in continuing peace talks aimed at ending the US-Israeli war. Israeli officials say President Donald Trump assured Israel that Iran's stockpile would be sent abroad and that any peace deal must include such a clause; the White House and Iran's foreign ministry declined to comment. The two sides have narrowed some gaps, the sources said, but remain divided over the stockpile and over Tehran's demand for recognition of its right to enrichment.

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Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive that the country's near-weapons-grade enriched uranium must not leave Iran, two senior Iranian sources told Reuters, hardening Tehran's stance on a central US demand in continuing peace talks aimed at ending the US-Israeli war. Israeli officials say President Donald Trump assured Israel that Iran's stockpile would be sent abroad and that any peace deal must include such a clause; the White House and Iran's foreign ministry declined to comment. The two sides have narrowed some gaps, the sources said, but remain divided over the stockpile and over Tehran's demand for recognition of its right to enrichment.