The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on Counterterrorism

List of Key Chapter Titles

1. Hybrid Warfare and Counterterrorism under NATO's New Strategic Concept
2. The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on NATO's Official Counterterrorism Discourse: An Assessment from an International Law Perspective
3. The Counterterrorism Effect on NATO's Eastern Flank: Weaponization of Migration and Future Terrorism Threats
4. Maritime Warfare: Unmanned Maritime Systems, Critical Infrastructure Protection, and Maritime Terrorism
5. The Wagner Group, ISIS, and Other Hybrid Actors: Terrorism Strategies and Tactics
6. How Are Terrorist Organizations Learning from Russia-Ukraine War Tactics? The Crime-Terror-Technology Nexus
7. Emerging Threats: Will New Technologies in the Russia-Ukraine War Alter Terrorist Capabilities?
8. Terrorism Threats Beyond the War Zone: Narrative Conflict, Foreign Information Manipulation, and Post-Truth
9. Implications of the Russia-Ukraine War for the World Order and Future Counterterrorism
10. Research Findings, Conclusions, Lessons Learned, and Recommendations for NATO

Document Introduction

Since its full-scale outbreak in 2022, the Russia-Ukraine War has not only reshaped Europe's geopolitical security landscape but also exerted profound and complex impacts on the global counterterrorism system. As a core research output of the NATO Centre of Excellence for Defence Against Terrorism (COE-DAT), this report compiles in-depth analyses from 10 leading international experts. It focuses on how this conflict is altering the tactical forms, organizational models, and technological applications of terrorism, as well as the challenges and opportunities it presents for NATO's counterterrorism strategy.

The report adopts an interdisciplinary perspective, covering multiple core dimensions such as hybrid warfare, international law, border security, maritime security, and technology proliferation. Through policy analysis of official documents including NATO's 2022 Strategic Concept and the 2024 Washington Summit Declaration, combined with battlefield case studies and the dynamics of non-state actors, it systematically dissects the chain reactions triggered by the Russia-Ukraine War in the field of counterterrorism. Key issues addressed include border security risks arising from the weaponization of migration, proliferation hazards of new technologies like unmanned systems, and the strengthening of the crime-terror-technology nexus.

Methodologically, the report integrates diverse approaches including policy text analysis, case studies, and expert workshops. It encompasses in-depth tracking of hybrid actors such as the Wagner Group and ISIS-Khorasan Province (ISKP), as well as specialized assessments of new tactics like drone warfare, cyber information operations, and cognitive operations. The book features both a regional focus on the security situation on NATO's Eastern Flank and macro-level reflections on the evolution of the global counterterrorism order, forming a comprehensive analytical framework from tactics to strategy and from regional to global levels.

Core findings indicate that the Russia-Ukraine War has become a tactical laboratory for terrorist organizations. Their practices involving low-cost drones, urban warfare, and decentralized networks are being studied and adopted by terrorist groups worldwide. Simultaneously, the security vacuum, weapons proliferation, and narrative confrontations resulting from the conflict have further intensified the complexity of global counterterrorism. Ultimately, the report proposes a series of actionable policy recommendations for NATO, including strengthening transnational coordination, investing in technological resilience, integrating resilience strategies, and optimizing partnerships, providing an authoritative reference for the Alliance and partner nations to enhance their counterterrorism capabilities.