Assessment of Southern Policy after One Year of the Trump Administration

Key Chapter Title List

1. Introduction to the New Southern Policy Center
2. BRICS Friction: U.S. Policy Adjustments Towards the BRICS Bloc and Fluctuations in Bilateral Relations
3. Southern Exposure: Western Hemisphere Policy, the Return of the Monroe Doctrine, and the Securitization of Immigration
4. Shift in Africa Policy: From Democracy Promotion to Trade and Security Priorities
5. Year in Review: Turbulence, Personalized Politics, and the Shadow of Domestic Politics
6. About the Authors
7. About the New Southern Policy Center

Document Introduction

This policy brief, published in November 2025, aims to systematically assess the diplomatic and security policies adopted by the U.S. government towards the Global South—namely Latin America, the Caribbean, and Africa—nearly one year after Donald Trump's return to the White House. The report notes that, contrary to the isolationism anticipated by many international partners, the Trump administration has demonstrated a pronounced unilateralist diplomatic tendency, with its policies marking a sharp break from those of the Biden administration. Core drivers of this Southern policy include ideological affinity, aversion to multilateral diplomacy and democracy promotion, and a continued focus on regional competition with China.

The report's structure is organized around several key geographical and thematic areas. In the BRICS Friction section, the analysis focuses on the shift in the U.S. attitude towards the BRICS bloc. The Trump administration views the group as a coalition challenging U.S. economic and geopolitical interests and has adopted a hardline policy towards its key members, Brazil and South Africa. The imposition of 50% punitive tariffs on Brazil stems from its domestic political situation (legal actions against Bolsonaro) and ideological differences; the deterioration of relations with South Africa originates from policy disagreements (such as positions on the Russia-Ukraine war, prosecuting Israel at the International Court of Justice) and criticism of its domestic Black Economic Empowerment policies, ultimately leading to the expulsion of ambassadors and a refugee quota favoring white South Africans. Although relations with India once peaked due to shared strategic interests in counterbalancing China, India's continued import of Russian oil triggered approximately 50% tariff sanctions from the U.S., coupled with visa restrictions, South Asia policy divergences, and leadership personality clashes, causing the U.S.-India strategic relationship to deteriorate rapidly.

The Southern Exposure chapter provides an in-depth analysis of the U.S. policy regression in the Western Hemisphere. The Trump administration placed homeland security and border control at its core, bringing the Monroe Doctrine back into policy debates. The report details law enforcement actions against undocumented immigrants, military strikes in the Caribbean targeting suspected drug smuggling (resulting in at least 65 deaths), threats to control the Panama Canal, and military preparations for a potential regime change in Venezuela. These actions have sparked domestic debates over the rule of law and historically rooted concerns about U.S. imperialism within the region. Simultaneously, the U.S. actively intervened in regional internal affairs through means such as financial support, exemplified by backing Argentine President Milei, reflecting a tendency to draw ideological lines.

Regarding Africa policy, the report summarizes three major shifts. First, a clear departure from the Biden administration's democracy promotion agenda, shifting emphasis to the rights of religious and racial minority groups (particularly Christians and white communities), and making this the core of policy discourse, even threatening military intervention for Nigerian Christians. Second, a shift from aid to trade: USAID was dissolved, its functions merged into the State Department, the African Growth and Opportunity Act was allowed to expire, and policy focus turned to commercial and security initiatives like Prosper Africa. Third, the continuation of the strategic framework of competition with China and Russia, with counter-terrorism and defense cooperation remaining important policy tools.

Overall, this brief concludes that during Trump's first year back in office, his Southern policy has exhibited a high degree of turbulence, personalization, and tight linkage to the domestic political agenda. Issues intersecting domestic and international concerns—such as trade, immigration, security, and conservative ideology—combined with sanctions and threats of military intervention, have shaped U.S. bilateral relations from South Asia to Latin America. This unilateral and hardline posture is destined to provoke sustained unease among Southern nations that uphold sovereignty consciousness and multilateral diplomacy. The report, based on analysis of public policy statements, diplomatic incidents, trade data, and media reports, provides a timely and in-depth assessment for understanding the Trump administration's Global South strategy in the early stages of its second term.