Air Power and Space Power: An Analysis of Defense Policy During the Trump Administration

Key Chapter Title List

1. Problem Overview: The Current State and Crisis of the Air Force and Space Force
2. The Core Value and Strategic Role of Air Power
3. Leadership Awareness and Advocacy
4. Rebuilding and Restoring the U.S. Air Force to Global Preeminence
5. The Confusion Problem: The Budget Toll Phenomenon
6. Specific Measures to Rebuild the Required U.S. Air Force
7. Laying the Foundation for the Space Force's Success
8. Major Challenges and Scale Dilemmas Facing the Space Force
9. Key Project Areas and Cost Estimates for the Space Force
10. Adopting Cost-Effectiveness Analysis as the DoD's Preferred Evaluation Standard
11. Conclusion: A Crisis Demanding Immediate Correction

Document Introduction

This policy report, issued by the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, aims to systematically analyze the national security challenges facing the Trump administration in 2025, focusing on the severe predicaments of the U.S. Air Force and Space Force. The report indicates that the Air Force is facing its most aged, smallest, and least combat-ready crisis since its establishment in 1947. Meanwhile, the newly formed Space Force struggles to effectively fulfill its core mission due to insufficient resources, personnel shortages, and resistance to integration within the Department of Defense. The report warns that without immediate corrective action, the risk of U.S. failure in the next major conflict will sharply increase.

The report first outlines the surging global demand for air and space capabilities in the current security environment, including China's territorial claims in the Pacific, Russia's aggression in Ukraine, and Iran's destabilizing activities in the Middle East. In this context, air and space superiority is seen as a prerequisite for any successful military operation. However, the U.S. Air Force fleet is severely aged; for example, the youngest B-52 bomber has been in service for 63 years. Plans to cut nearly 1,000 aircraft over the next five years are in place, alongside persistent pilot shortages and insufficient spare parts. Although the Space Force has been established, its budget constitutes only about 3.5% of the total DoD budget, with a personnel strength of less than 10,000, making it difficult to meet the demands of various combatant commands.

The core section of the report proposes a list of specific rebuilding measures for the Air Force, comprising thirteen key recommendations. These include: fully funding the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) Penetrating Counter-Air (PCA) aircraft; increasing annual F-35A procurement to 74 aircraft; increasing annual F-15EX procurement to 24 aircraft; raising annual B-21 bomber procurement to 20 aircraft by 2030; funding the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile replacement program as planned; establishing a National Nuclear Deterrence Fund; increasing fighter pilot annual flight hours to 200; fully funding the Weapon System Sustainment (WSS) account; protecting the research, development, and procurement of Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA); increasing investment in critical munition stockpiles; strengthening airbase air and missile defense capabilities; procuring at least 26 E-7 aircraft as the next-generation airborne warning and control system; and initiating research and development for the Next Generation Air-refueling System (NGAS). The report estimates that restoring the Air Force alone will require a significant increase in annual budget.

Regarding the Space Force, the report analyzes challenges such as its undersized scale, surging mission demands, and the threat posed by adversaries (China and Russia) turning space into a no-man's land. The report recommends that the Space Force budget should grow annually by 13%-18% and identifies five key investment areas: deploying advanced space control and counterspace systems; expanding space domain awareness and battle management capabilities; enhancing space access and launch capabilities; adding approximately 4,500 military personnel; and developing cislunar space operational capabilities. The report emphasizes the necessity of integrating all DoD space agencies under the Space Force to achieve unified effort and efficiency.

The report concludes by strongly advocating that the Department of Defense adopt cost-effectiveness analysis as the core decision-making tool for resource allocation, replacing the past piecemeal budget-cutting approach that focused narrowly on individual equipment costs. Using the high efficiency of the F-117 stealth fighter in Operation Desert Storm as an example, the report argues for the superiority of advanced systems in overall mission effectiveness and long-term costs.

Based on detailed data and citations, referencing numerous public statements by Air Force and Space Force leadership, congressional testimonies, defense budget documents, and prior studies by the Institute, this report provides policymakers, defense analysts, and national security professionals with an urgent, in-depth, and actionable assessment of the current state and future investment direction of U.S. air and space power.