Annual to U.S. Nuclear Forces Projected Costs

Key Chapter Title List

1. Executive Summary
2. Cost of Current Plans
3. How Costs Have Changed
4. Background
5. Projected Costs of Nuclear Forces Through 2034
6. Modernization Costs
7. Share of Nuclear Forces in the Defense Budget
8. Basis for CBO's Updated Estimate
9. Estimation Methods
10. Excluded Costs
11. Sources of Uncertainty
12. Changes in Costs Compared to the 2023 Estimate

Document Introduction

This report is issued by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) of the United States and is the sixth edition in its biennial series of ten-year nuclear forces cost assessments, required by the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015. The core of the report is based on the Department of Defense (DoD) and Department of Energy (DOE) budget requests for fiscal year 2025 submitted in March 2024. It provides a detailed estimate and analysis of the total costs for operating, maintaining, and modernizing U.S. nuclear forces between 2025 and 2034.

According to CBO's estimate, if executed as planned, the costs for DoD and DOE to operate, maintain, and modernize existing and future nuclear forces from 2025 to 2034 will total $946 billion, averaging approximately $95 billion annually. This total includes $357 billion for operating and maintaining current and future nuclear forces and other supporting activities; $309 billion for modernizing strategic and tactical nuclear delivery systems and their associated weapons; $72 billion for modernizing facilities and equipment of the nuclear weapons laboratory complex; $79 billion for modernizing nuclear command, control, communications, and early warning systems; and $129 billion for potential excess costs estimated based on historical cost growth patterns. The report specifically notes that the current ten-year cost estimate is $190 billion (a 25% increase) higher than CBO's estimate for 2023-2032 published in 2023. This increase consists of $157 billion from upward revisions to budget amount estimates and $33 billion from an increase in the estimate for potential excess costs.

The report provides an in-depth analysis of the cost structure and its driving factors. Nuclear forces costs are primarily allocated to four major areas: strategic nuclear delivery systems and weapons, tactical nuclear delivery systems and weapons, DOE's nuclear weapons laboratories and supporting activities, and DoD's command, control, communications, and early warning systems. The main reasons for cost growth include significant cost overruns in key programs such as the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile due to technical challenges, supply chain issues, and scope expansion; the clarification and increase in costs for plans like DOE production facility modernization; and the natural cost escalation effect resulting from shifting the assessment period forward by two years (2025-2034 replacing 2023-2032). A dedicated box in the report discusses in detail the substantial cost growth and its uncertainties for the Sentinel program triggered by the Nunn-McCurdy review, noting that CBO's current estimate does not yet fully incorporate all the additional costs revealed by that review.

The report also assesses the trend of nuclear forces costs as a share of the overall defense budget. CBO estimates that under the plans submitted in the 2025 budget, nuclear forces costs will account for approximately 8.4% of the total planned defense costs over the ten-year period. The annual share is projected to rise from 7.4% in 2025 to a peak of 9.1% in 2031, before slightly declining. This is significantly higher than the 3.9% share in 2014 (the starting year of the current series of estimates), reflecting that nuclear modernization programs are transitioning from the planning phase to a high-investment execution phase. Meanwhile, the share of research, development, and procurement costs for nuclear weapons and delivery systems within DoD's projected procurement funding is also on an upward trend, expected to reach a peak of 13.2% in 2031, intensifying funding competition pressures within defense programs.

CBO's report methodology adheres to its consistent principles, analyzing only costs directly related to the nuclear mission. It excludes costs for indirectly related activities such as dismantlement of Cold War legacy nuclear weapons, environmental cleanup, nonproliferation, arms control treaty implementation, and ballistic missile defense. The estimates are based on a detailed analysis of budget documents, combined with historical cost growth rates to project overall potential excess costs. The report also acknowledges that the executability of future plans, technical risks, deviations from production schedules, and operational costs during the mixed-fleet phase of old and new systems all constitute significant sources of uncertainty. This report aims to provide objective, nonpartisan cost information and analysis to assist Members of the U.S. Congress in making decisions regarding the future scale of nuclear forces, modernization pathways, and budget allocations.