French National Strategic Assessment Update Report: Strategic Challenges and Responses for the Year

Key Chapter Title List

1. Evolution of the Strategic Context Since 2022
2. Ambition Updated to 2030, Supported by Appropriate Resources
3. Methodology and Approach
4. Assessing Changes in the Strategic Environment
5. Consequences for France, Europe, and the International Order
6. A Strong and Credible Nuclear Deterrent
7. A United and Resilient France: Moral Rearmament for National Crisis Response
8. An Economy Prepared for War
9. First-Class Cyber Resilience
10. France as a Reliable Ally in the Euro-Atlantic Region
11. France as a Driver of European Strategic Autonomy
12. Guaranteeing Assessment Autonomy and Decision-Making Sovereignty

Document Introduction

This report is an updated national strategic assessment document released by the French government in 2025, aimed at responding to the rapidly deteriorating global security environment since the previous assessment in 2022. The report begins by stating that the world is at a turning point, with conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, and the Iranian crisis serving as acute manifestations of global instability. The report systematically analyzes four disruptive constants: the persistent direct threat posed by Russia on Europe's borders, the increasingly unrestricted use of force globally, Europe's need to rely more on its own strength, and the deep integration of technological revolutions (artificial intelligence, electronic warfare, space, quantum) with battlefield innovation. The report emphasizes that to ensure citizen security, economic prosperity, and national standing, France and Europe must make difficult decisions and drive a profound European and strategic revolution to master their own destiny.

The first part of the report provides a detailed assessment of the evolution of the strategic environment since 2022. Its core conclusion is that Russia is the primary threat to France and Europe for the foreseeable future (until 2030), with its war of aggression against Ukraine characterized by its unrestricted nature and accompanied by hybrid actions such as nuclear intimidation, cyberattacks, and election interference. The report also points to the People's Republic of China's reinforced posture to become the world's leading power by 2050, Iran's regionally disruptive actions, the return of nuclear weapons to the center of power games, the spread and intertwining of conflict zones, and the persistence of transnational threats (terrorism, organized crime, separatism). Furthermore, geopolitical issues such as climate change, biodiversity collapse, demographics, economic challenges, and access to energy and raw materials are incorporated into the analysis. The report argues that transatlantic solidarity and strategic stability are under pressure, the shift in U.S. policy priorities towards China introduces uncertainty, while Europe has undergone a strategic awakening, making progress in defense capabilities and industrial base construction.

Based on the above analysis, the second part of the report proposes France's updated strategic ambition until 2030: France will rearm itself materially and morally to prevent, respond to, and win a large-scale, high-intensity war in Europe's vicinity, while preventing and managing simultaneous disruptive actions against its homeland. To achieve this ambition, the report outlines eleven interconnected Strategic Objectives (SOs), forming a complete framework for France's national strategy. These objectives cover: maintaining a strong and credible nuclear deterrent; building a united, resilient nation and society; creating an economy prepared for war; establishing first-class cyber resilience; consolidating France's role as a reliable ally in the Euro-Atlantic region; promoting European strategic autonomy; becoming a reliable sovereign partner and security provider; guaranteeing assessment and decision-making autonomy; enhancing capabilities for action and defense in the hybrid domain; ensuring the ability to achieve decisive outcomes in military operations; and supporting Franco-European sovereignty through academic, scientific, and technological excellence.

The third part of the report, Methodology and Approach, translates these strategic objectives into specific lines of action and resource allocation plans. It details how to implement the ambition through three pillars: protecting the nation and strengthening the cohesion and resilience of key actors; reinforcing strategic autonomy and ensuring credible sovereign action capabilities; and contributing to European and international security. The content involves numerous specific areas, including the optimization of legislative and regulatory frameworks, national mobilization, strengthening cybersecurity organization, combating organized crime, defense and security planning, securing critical supply chains and energy resilience, strengthening diplomatic networks and resources, structuring industrial and hybrid response capabilities, intelligence and data processing, capacity building for armed forces and internal security forces, defense and security of overseas territories, and the development of disruptive technologies. The report ultimately emphasizes that achieving the 2030 goals requires accelerating France's rearmament, decisively shifting towards high-intensity capabilities, and enhancing national resilience, while encouraging the development of European defense in terms of norms, budgetary tools, and operational capabilities.