United Nations Security Council: Monthly Work Forecast Report

Key Chapter Title List

1. Overview
2. Review: The Security Council in a Holding Pattern
3. Updates Since the July Forecast
4. Women, Peace and Security
5. Non-Proliferation
6. West Africa and the Sahel
7. Maritime Security
8. Yemen
9. South Sudan
10. Lebanon
11. Syria
12. Libya
13. DPRK (North Korea)

Document Introduction

This report, published by Security Council Report on July 31, 2025, is an in-depth forecast and analysis document focusing on the anticipated work and agenda of the United Nations Security Council for August 2025. It aims to provide professional readers with a forward-looking perspective, analyzing the Council's key priorities for the month, the dynamics of interactions among member states, potential policy divergences, and the progress and challenges of various issues within the complex and evolving international security environment. The report's content is entirely based on publicly available information, diplomatic practice, and internal Council dynamics as of the publication date, offering a solid basis for observing and understanding the decision-making processes and effectiveness of this core multilateral security body.

The report begins with an overview of the Security Council's overall work arrangements for August. Panama will hold the rotating presidency and plans to host a high-level open debate on "Maritime Security: Prevention, Innovation, and International Cooperation in Addressing New Challenges" as its signature event. Additionally, the Council will hold its annual open debate on conflict-related sexual violence as customary and receive the biannual strategic-level briefing on the threat posed by ISIL. Regional issues on the agenda cover the Middle East (Syria, Yemen, the Question of Palestine, Lebanon), Africa (Libya, South Sudan, West Africa and the Sahel), and Asia (consultations on the work of the DPRK Sanctions Committee). The report also notes that the Council may continue to hold meetings on Ukraine and mentions the possibility of commemorating the anniversary of the 2008 Russia-Georgia war.

The report then provides a detailed review of the Security Council's working posture in the first half of 2025 through comprehensive data and analysis, revealing it to be in a state of waiting. This status stems from multiple factors: awaiting the clarification of the new U.S. administration's policies, delays in appointing chairs for subsidiary bodies, waiting for the implementation of ceasefire agreements, and assessing how resource constraints affect the Council's work. Statistical data shows that the number of resolutions adopted by the Security Council in the first half of 2025 (16) continues the declining trend of recent years, with a high proportion not adopted unanimously (44%), reflecting deep divisions among member states. The two uses of the veto on Ukraine and Gaza further highlight the Council's deadlock in handling highly politicized issues. The report specifically analyzes how the uncertainty brought by shifts in U.S. policy, particularly regarding its stance on Ukraine, climate change, the Women, Peace and Security agenda, and language on international humanitarian law, has impacted the Council's decision-making atmosphere.

The main body of the report analyzes key issues relevant to August and the recent period in a thematic format. The Women, Peace and Security chapter focuses on conflict-related sexual violence, with the anticipated open debate expected to address ensuring survivors' access to life-saving services and protection. The report cites data indicating a significant rise in reported cases and lists severe situations in places like the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, Haiti, and the Occupied Palestinian Territory. The Non-Proliferation chapter centers on the 1540 Committee briefing, discussing the long-term challenge of preventing non-state actors from acquiring weapons of mass destruction and the importance of technical assistance. The West Africa and the Sahel chapter analyzes the intertwined challenges of surging terrorist attacks, turbulent political transitions, worsening humanitarian crises, and rising Russian influence in the region. The Maritime Security chapter explores the compound impacts of the Red Sea crisis, emerging technological threats, organized crime, and environmental risks on global maritime trade and security.

For specific country issues, the report provides the latest dynamic assessments and forward-looking analysis. The Yemen section details the Houthis' resumption of attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, tit-for-tat military actions, the stalled peace process, and deteriorating economic and humanitarian conditions. The South Sudan section focuses on escalating internal violence, stalled implementation of the peace agreement, a severe humanitarian crisis, and differing views within the Council on the level of pressure to exert on the government. The core of the Lebanon section lies in negotiations for the mandate renewal of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and the implementation status of the Israel-Lebanon cessation of hostilities agreement. The Syria section analyzes the new outbreak of violence in As-Suwayda, the political transition process, the assessment of the future UN presence, and the pace of international normalization. The Libya section focuses on the ongoing political stalemate, fragile ceasefire, development of an electoral roadmap, and human rights concerns. The DPRK section discusses the persistently tense situation on the Korean Peninsula, deepening DPRK-Russia military cooperation, oversight challenges due to the vacant Sanctions Committee expert panel, and the deep divisions within the Council on this issue.

In summary, this report is not merely an agenda preview but a professional assessment integrating data trends, policy analysis, and geopolitical insights. It reveals that the Security Council will operate in the second half of 2025 against a backdrop of resource constraints, intensified major power competition, and multiple overlapping crises, facing severe tests to its internal unity and operational effectiveness. For professionals studying UN multilateralism, international security governance, major power relations, and specific regional conflicts, this report provides indispensable real-time intelligence and a deep analytical framework.