Multipolar Geopolitics: How to Respond to Europe's Diminishing Influence in Southeast Asia

Key Chapter Title List

1. Abstract
2. The Center of a Multipolar World: The Rise of the Indo-Pacific and Europe's Risks
3. The Revival of Non-Alignment
4. Europe's Strategic Challenges
5. The Path to Gradually Regaining Relevance
6. Conclusion

Document Introduction

This report is authored by analysts from the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS). Its core concern lies in the severe reality of Europe's waning influence within the rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific. The report begins by pointing out that the Indo-Pacific region is swiftly becoming the center of global geopolitics and economy. Its increasingly evident multipolar trend and the proactive revival of non-alignment strategies (such as Indonesia joining BRICS+ and Thailand pragmatically deepening relations with China) are reshaping the regional alliance structure. However, Europe's credibility as a reliable global actor is being questioned due to strategic incoherence, insufficient engagement, and weak responses to global crises (such as the Gaza War mentioned in the report). Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar's sharp comment that Europe needs to move beyond the mindset that its problems are the world's problems, but the world's problems are not Europe's problems, accurately captures the prevailing perception of Europe in the Indo-Pacific region.

The report delves into the internal roots of Europe's diminishing influence. The primary issue is a lack of strategic cohesion: despite the EU's Indo-Pacific Strategy, at least five member states still maintain their own independent Indo-Pacific strategies. While these bilateral approaches have value, they dilute Europe's collective influence and are easily exploited by external actors (like China) to divide Europe. Secondly, the complexity of the EU's bureaucratic system and its tendency to lack sustained commitment after projects end (such as the Enhancing Security Cooperation in and with Asia (ESIWA) project) damages its credibility as a reliable partner. Furthermore, in the realm of economic security, while the EU emphasizes de-risking from China, its heavy import dependence on China in critical areas like semiconductors and rare earths exposes an inherent contradiction between its strategic ambitions and practical dependencies.

The report further contextualizes Europe's dilemma within regional security dynamics. China's gray-zone tactics in the South China Sea (such as the strategic acquisition of land in the Philippines mentioned in the report) and the involvement of North Korean forces in the Ukraine conflict, among other events, all indicate that the security theaters of the Indo-Pacific and Europe are now closely interconnected. However, in the face of these challenges, regional leadership appears fragmented (with domestic political divisions in Japan and South Korea, and ASEAN struggling to coordinate a unified response on the South China Sea issue). If Europe continues to be perceived as disconnected from these security challenges, it risks marginalization amidst the shifting global order.

To address the aforementioned challenges, the report does not advocate for a complete strategic overhaul but proposes several nuanced adjustment paths. First, it emphasizes the importance of consistency and long-term commitment, including sustained participation in regional forums, enhanced public diplomacy, and embedding sustainability into project design. Second, it suggests better utilizing the Team Europe approach to integrate member states' resources and expertise (such as France's defense partnerships and Germany's economic links) to amplify collective influence. Third, while pursuing participation in formal mechanisms (like the ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting-Plus), it recommends focusing on building trust through low-key, pragmatic informal cooperation, such as sharing experiences in defense resilience building. Fourth, it calls for simplifying bureaucratic procedures to provide clear interfaces for Indo-Pacific partners to engage with the EU.

The report ultimately warns that the Indo-Pacific region is reshaping the global order, and Europe's position within it is precarious. Its key economic and security interests are at stake. Europe must prove through concrete, enduring partnerships that it is not merely a passive observer; otherwise, it faces a high risk of marginalization. The current period of geopolitical fluidity presents an opportunity for Europe to recalibrate its relationship with the Indo-Pacific. The cost of inaction is too high, both for Europe and for the global balance of power.