Deep Precision Strike: A New Tool for Strategic Competition?

Key Chapter Title List

1. Deep Strike: A Strategic Differentiator
2. Attempts in the First Industrial Age
3. Deep Strike in the Cold War: From Nuclear to Conventional Weapons
4. A Capability Returning to the Core of the Agenda
5. The Proliferation of New Capabilities Globally
6. The Asia-Pacific Theater: Depth and Vastness
7. The European Theater: A Proving Ground for Deep Strike
8. The Middle East: Long-Range Escalation
9. The Future of Deep Strike Capabilities
10. Deep Strike Under the French Model
11. On Strategic Considerations

Document Introduction

This study focuses on the resurgence and evolution of deep precision strike capabilities in contemporary strategic competition. The report argues that since the battlefield stalemate in Ukraine in the winter of 2023, both warring parties have significantly increased their use of deep precision strikes to seek military effects unattainable on the front lines. This trend not only exposes the vulnerability of European nations to such threats and the limitations of their own capabilities but also marks a period of technological proliferation, tactical innovation, and paradigm reshaping for deep strike as a strategic tool across various global conflict theaters.

The report first systematically traces the origin and historical evolution of the deep strike concept, from its germination during World War I to break the trench warfare stalemate, to its close association with nuclear deterrence and the development of a significant conventional dimension during the Cold War, and its subsequent marginalization after the Cold War due to the diminished prospect of high-intensity peer conflict. The analysis points out that the current resurgence of deep strike capabilities is driven by a triple factor: technological advancement (precision, range, penetration), cost reduction, and intensified strategic competition. The war in Ukraine has become a key laboratory, where both sides extensively employ a hybrid strike system ranging from ballistic missiles and cruise missiles to various drones and guided munitions to attack high-value targets deep in enemy territory, simultaneously spurring innovation and adaptation in defense systems.

The report then conducts a comparative study to deeply analyze the development trends of deep strike capabilities in three key theaters: Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East. In the Asia-Pacific, China employs deep strike as a core means to achieve its Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) strategy and counter US power projection, having developed a diverse arsenal of medium and long-range precision strike weapons. The United States and its allies (such as Japan, South Korea) are responding by developing new missiles, adjusting force deployments, and building multi-domain task forces. In Europe, the Ukraine conflict has highlighted both the advantages and rigidity of Russia's existing deep strike system and Ukraine's adaptive innovations under equipment disadvantages, particularly the widespread use of low-cost strike means such as long-range drones. This conflict has also prompted many European nations to re-evaluate and accelerate the procurement or development of their own deep strike and missile defense capabilities. In the Middle East, Iran and its proxies (such as the Houthis, Hezbollah) are proliferating long-range strike capabilities, conducting power projection and deterrence through ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, posing new challenges to the regional security landscape and Western interests.

The report concludes by focusing on an assessment of France's current status and future in the field of deep strike. Although the French Air and Space Force and Navy possess excellent cruise missiles such as SCALP and MdCN, their stockpiles are limited, and the Army's long-range strike capability is weak (with only a small number of soon-to-be-retired rocket artillery). The 2024-2030 Military Programming Law sets objectives to address these capability gaps, including developing rocket artillery with a range of 150 kilometers or more and missiles with a range of 500 kilometers through the Land-Based Long-Range Strike Innovation Partnership, and participating in multinational collaborations such as the European Long-Range Strike Initiative (ELSA). The report emphasizes that future deep strike systems must balance high-performance penetration systems with low-cost saturation systems, while also considering strategic issues such as linkage with nuclear deterrence forces, target selection, and escalation control.

Based on original research from the Security Studies Center of the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri), this report synthesizes methods of historical analysis, case comparison, technical assessment, and policy interpretation. It aims to provide defense policymakers, strategic researchers, and security affairs analysts with an authoritative and in-depth assessment of the evolutionary trends of this critical capability: deep precision strike.