The strategy to defeat North Korea in the Ukraine war requires

Key Chapter Title List

1. Introduction
2. Deadly Attraction
3. From Arms Trade to Strategic Alliance
4. Battlefield Contributions and Returns of Advanced Technology
5. The Rapid Leap in North Korea's Conventional and Strategic Capabilities
6. Alliance Threat Linkage on the Korean Peninsula
7. Conclusion: Dismantling the Russia-North Korea Partnership by Defeating North Korea in Ukraine

Document Overview

The outbreak and continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have unexpectedly accelerated the formation of a geostrategic axis: the Russia-North Korea partnership. This report provides an in-depth analysis of the evolution of this alliance from its initial limited cooperation based on sanctions evasion to a comprehensive strategic partnership anchored by North Korea's direct military involvement in the Ukrainian battlefield. The report notes that this evolution has not only altered the equipment and manpower balance on the European battlefield but has also drastically changed the military power balance and strategic stability situation on the Korean Peninsula and in the Northeast Asia region through the large-scale reverse transfer of cutting-edge military technology.

The core argument of the report is that, by providing Russia with vast quantities of artillery shells, short-range ballistic missiles, and even deploying combat personnel, North Korea has become an indispensable source of support for Russia in the Ukrainian war. In return, Russia is crossing the red lines drawn by South Korea, transferring key military capabilities to North Korea, including advanced fighter jet production technology, radar-guided air-to-air missiles, early warning aircraft technology, and even solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile and multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) technologies. This reciprocal model of battlefield contribution in exchange for technological returns constitutes the substantive foundation of the comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and North Korea, further solidified by the Cold War-style mutual defense treaty reinstated by both parties in 2024.

By systematically reviewing North Korea's publicly disclosed new weapon systems since 2022 (as listed in Table 1), this report demonstrates that their development timeline and the magnitude of their technological leaps strongly suggest large-scale technological input from Russia. More worryingly, this cooperation has transcended mere arms trade, presenting risks of strategic linkage. North Korea's leadership has explicitly linked battlefield experience in Ukraine with deterrence against South Korea, while the Russia-North Korea mutual assistance clause theoretically provides a basis for Russia's future intervention in a Korean Peninsula conflict, thereby establishing a dangerous connection between the crises in Europe and East Asia.

Based on the above analysis, the report's core policy recommendation is clear and direct: the key to dismantling the Russia-North Korea alliance lies in disrupting its reciprocal foundation, namely, by fully assisting Ukraine in defeating North Korean military forces on the battlefield. Specifically, South Korea and its allies should proactively provide lethal military assistance to Ukraine, with the trigger condition explicitly set as Russia launching a new offensive or North Korean troops crossing the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine. This action aims to diminish the battlefield gains Russia receives from North Korea, increase the cost of North Korea's participation in the war, thereby creating pressure and distrust within the alliance, and ultimately leading to its internal collapse. The report emphasizes that the window for action is narrowing and decisive measures must be taken before this partnership further solidifies and triggers broader regional conflict chain reactions.