Predicting whether the Ukraine war will end in 2024?

Key Chapter Title List

1. Introduction: Trump's Promise and the Complexity of Ending the War
2. Core Prediction: The Potential Ceasefire in Early 2025 and Its Limitations
3. Current Battlefield Trends and the Evolution of the Balance of Power
4. Fatigue in the Western Support Coalition and Domestic Political Pressures
5. Strategic Objectives of the Belligerents and the Stalemate
6. The Role of Trump as an External Game-Changer
7. Dynamics for Establishing a Ceasefire and Calculations of All Parties
8. Complexity of the Political Settlement Process and the Gordian Knot
9. Negotiation Deadlock and the Waning of Trump's Interest
10. Ukraine's Dilemma: The Dual Predicament of Security and Reconstruction
11. Winner Analysis: Strategic Gains for Trump and Putin
12. Conclusion: The Unfinished War and the Persistence of a Liminal State

Document Introduction

This report addresses a core issue of significant international concern: whether the ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine, which has persisted to this day, might come to an end in 2025? The report does not provide a simple yes or no answer. Instead, it delves deeply into the multi-dimensional, multi-layered dynamics that will determine the course of the war, with a particular focus on the geopolitical shifts at the critical juncture of 2025, especially the potential direct impact of the change in US leadership.

The report begins by noting that although US President-elect Donald Trump has promised to end the war quickly, the complexity of the war is far beyond what the will of a single nation's president can easily control. The report's core thesis is: With the strong mediation of the Trump administration, a ceasefire in early 2025 is possible, and combat will significantly de-escalate and nearly stop. However, this is only the first step in conflict management. The subsequent diplomatic process aimed at achieving a lasting political settlement and stability is highly likely to become deadlocked, leaving Ukraine in a no-man's-land between war and reconstruction.

The analysis first reviews the battlefield situation as of the report's writing. Russian forces are making incremental progress, striving to improve their positions before winter limits frontline activity. Ukraine is severely constrained by a shortage of personnel. Nearly three years of war, particularly Russia's sustained attacks on civilian and energy infrastructure, have caused immense attrition, leading to intensified war fatigue within Ukraine and a weakening will to continue resistance. Meanwhile, the Western support coalition also faces fatigue. The new US administration came to power partly due to domestic sentiment favoring a focus on domestic affairs over foreign wars; in Germany, the issue of funding for Ukraine aid led to the collapse of the coalition government. These factors collectively weaken Ukraine's ability to receive sustained Western military aid and financial support, while Russia's supply of personnel and equipment is projected to peak in 2025.

Although the war exhibits characteristics of a war of attrition, neither Kyiv nor Moscow has abandoned its initial strategic objectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's victory plan emphasizes joining NATO, obtaining unconditional Western weapons, and enhancing deterrence capabilities, but is vague on reclaiming all lost territories. Russian President Vladimir Putin's goal has consistently been the recognition of annexed territories and Ukraine's permanent neutrality and demilitarization. Neither side's strategy has been fully successful, yet both remain entrenched, creating conditions for an external force to act as a game-changer.

The report posits that peace efforts initiated by Trump around his inauguration will be tactically welcomed by both sides. For Zelenskyy, public pressure from the US could serve as an excuse to recalibrate unrealistic goals, shifting focus to consolidating the current frontlines to seek military and economic recovery. For Putin, it would allow him to solidify control over the approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory already occupied, interpreting it as Western acquiescence to Russian gains, while reinforcing his narrative about great powers dominating the world and dictating the pace of proxy wars.

However, establishing a ceasefire is relatively easy; the subsequent political settlement process is the true challenge. This involves complex negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, between Ukraine and the West, between Russia and the West (especially the US and Russia), and potentially other external actors, with vastly differing objectives and expectations among the parties. The report predicts that Trump, as a self-proclaimed dealmaker, is likely to lose interest during these protracted and complex negotiations. Without high-level political impetus, the talks will be prolonged and unlikely to yield substantive results.

For Ukraine, this will lead to an extremely unfavorable dilemma: With direct combat halted, Western war fatigue will intensify, weapons supplies will gradually dry up, and its long-term self-defense capabilities will be concerning. Simultaneously, due to the lack of a final settlement, investment will only trickle in slowly, national reconstruction will be hindered, and the risk of war reigniting will persist. Ultimately, the report notes that the winners in this scenario are likely to be Trump (who can claim credit for ending the war) and Putin (who, by prolonging negotiations, further weakens Ukraine, essentially achieving his strategic goals in a context where Ukraine cannot join NATO, its economy struggles, and its military power diminishes). Therefore, 2025 may witness not the definitive end of the war, but the solidification of an unstable, low-intensity liminal state.