Competitive Medium-Altitude Long-Endurance (MALE) UAVs: Applications in the Russia-Ukraine War

Key Chapter Title List

1. Definition: Analysis of UAV-Related Terminology
2. The Evolving Landscape of Unmanned Combat Air Systems
3. From Permissive to Contested Environments: Insights from MALE UAVs
4. Overview of Unmanned Combat Air System Development by Country (Australia, France-Germany-Spain, Sweden, Turkey, UK-Italy-Japan)
5. Vulnerability Curve and Case Studies of MALE UAVs (Turkish Experience, Yemen, Lebanon, etc.)
6. Application of MALE UAVs in the Russia-Ukraine War
7. Performance of Russian MALE UAVs in Actual Combat
8. Challenges in Learning from Ukrainian and Russian Experiences
9. Conclusion: The Future of Unmanned Systems and the Prospects of MALE Platforms

Document Introduction

With the return of high-intensity conflict risks in the neighborhood, the role of unmanned aerial systems in modern warfare is undergoing profound reshaping. This report, published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in November 2024, focuses on Medium-Altitude Long-Endurance (MALE) unmanned aerial vehicles, which once dominated permissive airspace, and delves into the survivability crisis and tactical adaptations they face in increasingly contested operational environments. The report points out that although MALE platforms have demonstrated significant utility in intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and ground strike missions, they were not originally designed to counter today's dense and diverse ground-based air defense threats, leading to the exposure of serious vulnerabilities in the Russia-Ukraine war and multiple conflicts in the Middle East.

The report first sorts out the complex terminology system of unmanned aerial systems, clarifying the definitions and evolution of concepts from UAVs to Unmanned Combat Air Systems (UCAS) and Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA), laying the foundation for subsequent analysis. Subsequently, the report reviews the development trajectories and strategic shifts of major countries in the field of high-end unmanned combat air systems (such as UCAVs and their successor concepts like CCA, ACP, and remote carriers), noting that nations are shifting from pursuing independent, expensive single platforms to developing families of systems with varying levels of expendability and survivability, designed to operate in synergy with manned fighter aircraft, to address contested airspace and compensate for the shortage of manned platforms.

The core section of the report provides a detailed analysis of the performance of MALE UAVs in multiple real combat environments. By examining Turkey's use of drones in Syria, Libya, and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the report reveals that integrating UAVs with electronic warfare systems and exploiting opponents' insufficient training and equipment limitations can yield temporary advantages. However, such advantages quickly diminish when facing more robust and adaptive air defense systems, as seen in the Ukrainian theater. The report focuses on evaluating the operational experiences of Ukraine's TB2 drones and Russia's Forpost and Orion MALE platforms in the Russia-Ukraine war. It indicates that while they may play a role in the early stages of the war or during specific campaign windows (such as in the Kursk region), their direct combat effectiveness is limited in highly contested airspace, forcing them to shift towards stand-off ISR missions or operations in relatively permissive maritime environments.

The report concludes that the vulnerabilities exposed by the current generation of MALE UAVs when facing short to medium-range air defense systems compel nations to make adaptive adjustments in tactics, procedures, and platform design. In the short term, installing self-protection aids and adjusting operational concepts are the solutions. In the medium to long term, developing more survivable platforms based on low-observable designs, adopting low-cost expendable/disposable systems, or hybridizing various architectures will be key paths to maintaining the relevance of MALE-level ISR capabilities in future contested airspace. This report provides defense planners, military analysts, and strategic researchers with profound insights based on empirical evidence from recent conflicts, offering significant reference value for understanding the evolution and limitations of unmanned systems in modern and future warfare.