Japanese Self-Defense Force Personnel Bases in an Era of Population Decline: Promoting Labor-Saving and Unmanned Capabilities in the Air Self-Defense Force

Key Chapter Title List

1. Mission Expansion of the Japan Self-Defense Forces and the Japan Air Self-Defense Force
2. Human Resources and Future Structural Challenges
3. Force Restructuring Under Demographic Constraints: Lessons from Other Nations
4. Why Unmanned Systems Matter: Tactical Effects and Strategic Utility in Modern Warfare
5. Redesigning Personnel Strength Through Labor-Saving and Unmanned Capabilities
6. Optimizing Manned Aircraft Numbers with an Unmanned System-Centric Force Structure
7. Streamlining and Optimizing the Command Structure
8. Multi-Skilling of Personnel
9. Enhancing Base Defense Functions Through Advanced Technology
10. Optimizing Trainer Aircraft Numbers Through Simulation-Driven Reform
11. Conclusion

Document Introduction

This report, published by the Brookings Institution, aims to explore how the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF), particularly the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF), can ensure the long-term sustainability of their defense capabilities under the dual pressures of an irreversible demographic decline and an increasingly severe security environment. The core argument of the report is that Japan's traditional human resource-dependent defense model has encountered a structural bottleneck. It is imperative to elevate the development of labor-saving and unmanned capabilities to the level of national strategy, undertaking a fundamental restructuring encompassing equipment, organization, and operational concepts.

The report first provides a detailed analysis of the human resource crisis facing the JSDF. The population of eligible youth aged 18-26 in Japan has sharply declined from approximately 17.4 million in 1994 to about 10.2 million in 2024, and is projected to further decrease to around 7.1 million by 2044. Correspondingly, the actual strength of the Self-Defense Forces has long been unable to meet the statutory authorized personnel levels. As of March 2025, the overall fulfillment rate was about 89.1%, with the rate for junior non-commissioned officers (NCOs) being only 60.7%. Concurrently, recruitment difficulties coexist with rising mid-career attrition rates. Although the Ministry of Defense has implemented measures such as increasing salaries and expanding the roles of women and reservists, the report points out that, given macro trends like the continued concentration of the population in metropolitan areas and changing employment attitudes, merely improving compensation is insufficient to fundamentally reverse the trend of manpower shortages.

Simultaneously, the report emphasizes that Japan's security environment is becoming the most severe and complex it has been since the post-war era. The report cites specific threat examples, including joint military activities by China and Russia around Japan, frequent incursions by Chinese military aircraft into airspace around Taiwan and across the median line, the normalization of Chinese unmanned system Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) activities in the East China Sea, and North Korea's continued nuclear and missile development. These dynamics not only increase the daily operational burden on the JASDF, such as emergency scrambles, creating an asymmetric burden in terms of manpower and cost, but also exert continuous pressure on Japan's overall defense posture.

Based on the analysis of the structural contradiction between human resource constraints and expanding security demands, the report systematically proposes five specific reform initiatives for the Air Self-Defense Force. First, optimize the number of manned aircraft. The core of this is to develop and integrate unmanned assets such as Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA), forming Manned-Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T) to conserve and reallocate human resources while maintaining or even enhancing combat capability. Second, streamline and optimize the command structure, especially following the establishment of the Joint Operations Command, by leveraging Artificial Intelligence (AI) to accelerate information analysis and decision-making, thereby reducing the personnel burden on command echelons. Third, promote the multi-skilling of personnel, breaking down traditional specialized skill barriers to cultivate multi-capable aircrew capable of performing cross-domain tasks, supporting new operational concepts like Agile Combat Employment (ACE). Fourth, strengthen base defense using advanced technologies such as ground robots, drones, and high-power microwaves to reduce reliance on manpower-intensive patrols. Fifth, optimize trainer aircraft procurement numbers and enhance training efficiency through a training transformation driven by Virtual Reality, Augmented Reality, and high-performance simulators.

The report's conclusion clearly states that advancing labor-saving and unmanned transformation is not a contraction of capability, but rather a forward-looking strategic choice to maintain and enhance deterrence and response capabilities under demographic constraints. This requires Japan to explicitly position the development of these capabilities as a pillar of its defense strategy and promote cross-domain technological cooperation and institutional innovation to ensure the long-term sustainability of its defense forces in an era of population decline.