Trump's visit to Gulf countries: Is it more than just superficial?

Key Chapter Title List

1. Introduction: The Two Pillars of the Gulf Leadership's Response to Trump
2. Wielding the Economic Carrot (with Conditions)
3. Expectations of the Major Players: Saudi Arabia and the UAE
4. Regional Stability in Sight
5. Familiarity with the Strongman Dealmaker
6. Conclusion: Balancing Between Leverage and Access

Document Introduction

This report, authored by Clemens Chai, a researcher at the National University of Singapore's Middle East Institute, aims to provide an in-depth analysis of then-U.S. President Donald Trump's visit to Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar during the early stages of his second term in 2025. This visit not only replicated his choice for his first foreign trip during his initial term but also extended to other Gulf Cooperation Council countries, highlighting the central position of the Gulf region in the Trump administration's foreign policy. The report focuses on the substantive implications of this visit beyond ceremonial pomp, exploring the dynamics of U.S.-Gulf relations amidst intertwined issues of economic deals, strategic adjustments, and regional security.

The report points out that the personalized ruling models of the Gulf monarchies resonate with Trump's operating style, providing a unique foundation for their interactions. Simultaneously, Gulf countries skillfully employ economic diplomacy to respond to America-first trade policies and even cater to Trump's personal preferences, thereby gaining certain policy advantages in negotiations. In the lead-up to and during the visit, a series of economic deals emerged intensively—from the Qatari Diyar and Trump Organization's golf resort project, to Qatar Airways' potential procurement of Boeing wide-body aircraft, and Kuwait's approval for Patriot missile systems—all seen as strategies to accommodate U.S. trade demands in exchange for political influence. Although the U.S. is not a primary export market for Gulf countries, new tariff policies still bring inflationary spillover effects and market volatility, forcing Gulf nations to seek barter-like exchanges of interests during meetings and strive to maintain fiscal balance against the backdrop of falling oil prices.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are viewed as the major players in relations with the U.S. The UAE actively engages with the U.S. tech industry through massive investment frameworks in areas like artificial intelligence, while Saudi Arabia significantly increases its holdings of U.S. assets and invests in key technology companies through its sovereign wealth fund, demonstrating a strategic judgment that views the U.S. as an irreplaceable center for innovation and finance. However, the report also notes that Gulf countries will ultimately face pressure to make strategic choices between China and the U.S. in areas involving national security (such as technology), testing their long-held hedging strategies.

Regional stability is the deep-seated concern hidden behind the series of deals. Gulf countries have elevated their diplomatic standing and utility to Washington through their mediating roles in issues like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Russia-Ukraine negotiations. U.S.-Gulf talks are expected to focus on two major topics: first, the direction of ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and their impact on Iran's nuclear program and Gulf security, with Gulf nations hoping to limit Iran's path to nuclear weapons while leaving it some breathing room, and worrying that Trump's military threats and provocative rhetoric could undermine existing détente; second, post-war Gaza reconstruction plans, where Gulf countries have varying stances on Israel and Palestinian entities but generally share concerns about Israel's unchecked military power and Hamas's role in reconstruction. Any further steps toward normalization of relations with Israel require careful weighing of regional balance and public sentiment.

The report concludes by analyzing the Gulf leadership's confidence and reservations about dealing with Trump, the strongman dealmaker. They appreciate his ability to pressure opponents but also harbor doubts about his peace-through-strength policy and desire clear security guarantees. The key lies in Gulf countries attempting to convey to the U.S. a formula for regional reconciliation that does not push Iran into a corner, and finding leverage in the grey area between the U.S. demand for Iran's complete nuclear abandonment and Iran's insistence on uranium enrichment activities. Although Gulf countries might leverage Trump's political need to portray himself as a dealmaker to enhance their own political capital, achieving a breakthrough on the Israeli-Palestinian issue still faces many obstacles. A potential U.S.-Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement, not predicated on normalization with Israel, could become the most significant outcome of this visit.

Based on public statements, government documents, news reports, and expert analysis, this report provides a timely and in-depth professional assessment for understanding the economic and strategic logic of U.S.-Gulf relations during the early stages of Trump's second term.