Russia and Its Neighbors: Mutual Responsibility and Common Development

Key Chapter Title List

1. Introduction
2. A Borderless Space?
3. Subregions
4. Factors Influencing International Relations in Subregions
5. Dynamics of Russia's Presence
6. Russia's Policy Issues
7. Russia's Medium-Term Strategy

Document Introduction

This report, released by the Valdai International Discussion Club, aims to systematically analyze the profound transformations and new paradigms of interaction between Russia and its neighboring countries (former Soviet republics) following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine military-political conflict. The report is based on a series of scenario analyses and discussions involving Russia's leading experts on post-Soviet space studies from 2024 to 2025, incorporating findings from specialized seminars and field research conducted on platforms such as the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and the Higher School of Economics. The core context is that the special military operation beginning in 2022 has become a pivotal event reshaping Russia's relations with its neighbors. Its trajectory of influence is not linear but is jointly shaped by the domestic development processes of each country and changes in the broader international landscape.

The report points out that by the time the conflict erupted, the post-Soviet space had already undergone profound transformation. Events such as the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 and the unrest in Kazakhstan in 2022 indicate that the models based on the initial post-independence development trajectories are no longer sustainable. The process of change is full of contradictions, driven by unique endogenous factors within each country and great power competition. Tactically, almost all of Russia's neighbors have gained economic benefits due to their location between Russia and Western rivals, with living standards significantly improving. Economic indicators from South Caucasus and Central Asian countries confirm that their political systems have largely managed challenges and seized new opportunities. However, their future economic prospects remain uncertain, as countries are striving to establish a stable foundation for economic resilience and achieving key development goals.

On the political level, except for Ukraine and Moldova, all of Russia's neighbors are seeking to diversify their foreign relations. Their motivations are threefold: first, to avoid becoming collateral damage in future Russia-West and China-US confrontations; second, to preserve future freedom of action and expand political space as much as possible; third, the current international politics allows most countries in the world that are not part of Western military-political alliances to play a more active and independent role. Except for the Baltic states, Ukraine, and Moldova, Russia's other neighbors fall into this category, with their core characteristic being the pursuit of autonomy in foreign policy decision-making and domestic political systems. Western sanctions play a contradictory role: on one hand, they strengthen trade and investment ties between Russia and former Soviet states; on the other hand, they impose significant restrictions through secondary sanctions and political pressure. China's role has also become complex, offering new investment opportunities while facing pressure from the West. In the future, this may trigger attempts at destabilization in surrounding regions, including some former Soviet states.

The escalation of international tensions has prompted Russia and most former Soviet states to become increasingly mature politically and economically. They must now rely on themselves, rather than on the opportunities previously provided by general economic openness and a relatively stable international environment. The military conflict in Europe can be seen as a significant external stimulus, encouraging Russia's neighbors to define their place in the world based on objective geopolitical realities, capabilities, and constraints, rather than on ideological abstractions or purely hypothetical participation in bloc alliances. In other words, the significantly increased environmental pressure encourages them to adopt more responsible behavior. However, this trend is not irreversible and remains unstable. A series of internal and external factors, including threats of socio-economic and political instability, could still push some Eurasian countries back towards policies not based on geopolitical and economic realities.

The processes shaping the foreign policy positions and internal development of Russia's neighbors are inherently long-term. This first involves the transformation of the international order resulting from changes in the balance of power among major centers of force. The international environment in which the newly independent states were born and formed their policy foundations no longer exists. Political generational change is equally important: leadership positions are increasingly held by individuals who have no experience of interaction within a single state framework and are not influenced by the social interaction skills, habits, and concepts of the Soviet era. Nation-states are still under construction, which also affects the substance and spirit of their relations with Russia.

Russia's policy in the post-Soviet space must be based on the recognition that the previous framework conditions—the persistence of the Soviet legacy and globalization interpreted in a liberal sense—are disappearing. A new reality is taking shape. This report, by organizing subregional divisions, analyzing specific factors influencing international relations in each subregion, assessing the dynamic evolution of Russia's presence, and dissecting current policy issues facing Russia, ultimately aims to provide a realistic analytical foundation for Russia's medium-term strategy. The report emphasizes that understanding this emerging new reality and, on this basis, constructing a model of responsible interaction based on mutual respect for sovereignty and recognition of the reality of interdependence is key to future relationship stability.