The Next Frontier: Challenges and Reform Pathways for U.S. Space Policy

Key Chapter Titles

1. Executive Summary
2. Part 1: Our Challenges in Space
3. The Public and Private Components of Current U.S. Civil Space Policy
4. NASA's Long-Standing Issues with Cost Overruns and Lax Management
5. Regulatory Hurdles Facing the U.S. Private Space Industry
6. The Outlook and Potential Conflicts of the Trump Administration's Space Policy
7. NASA's Strengths and Persistent Problems
8. The Dire State and Cost Crisis of Human Spaceflight Programs
9. Four Key Reform Recommendations
10. Conclusion: Maintaining Leadership by Empowering the Private Sector and Reforming NASA

Document Introduction

As the dawn of a true space age emerges, the United States is in a favorable position to lead this transformation. Innovations in rocket technology by the private sector are making spaceflight cheap, accessible, and routine, opening the door for commercial ventures in orbit and beyond, heralding economic prosperity. Falling costs also help NASA revitalize its stagnant space programs, bringing the long-held dreams of returning to the Moon, establishing a permanent presence, and then venturing to Mars within reach.

However, the upcoming public-private space revolution faces two major obstacles. First, although private space companies like SpaceX are pushing technological boundaries, they are constrained by outdated regulations. Second, NASA itself is hampered by obsolete technology and poor management. For over two decades, the agency has been developing the large rocket for the Artemis lunar missions—the Space Launch System. Unfortunately, the SLS is severely delayed, massively over budget, and based on outdated designs. NASA's Inspector General estimates that each future SLS launch will cost over 4 billion dollars, which is neither sustainable nor necessary. Meanwhile, China is rapidly advancing its space program, including plans to land astronauts on the Moon, while NASA struggles to make progress.

This report points out that U.S. civil space policy consists of both public and private components, both requiring deep reform. NASA has a sixty-year legacy of human spaceflight and countless robotic science missions, but long-standing issues of cost overruns and lax management threaten the future of both its crewed and uncrewed missions. On the other hand, the U.S. private space industry has made tremendous leaps in capability and cost reduction but faces cumbersome regulatory hurdles that could stifle it in its infancy. The report analyzes the still-unclear landscape of the Trump administration's space policy, as well as the potential conflicts of interest and political controversies arising from Elon Musk and his company SpaceX being the government's largest commercial space services supplier, suggesting that the traditional bipartisan consensus supporting NASA may be coming to an end.

The report acknowledges that NASA still holds significant advantages; its various science missions and human spaceflight programs continue to advance; the SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft are finally taking credible steps toward their first crewed flight; its innovative Commercial Space Program has significantly reduced costs for low-Earth orbit missions through outsourcing launches; and NASA remains one of the most popular agencies in the federal government. However, routine and massive cost overruns seriously threaten NASA's crewed and robotic projects. The James Webb Space Telescope's budget ballooned to over 10 billion dollars; the Mars Sample Return mission has been indefinitely shelved; the VERITAS mission aimed at landing on Venus has been delayed.

The situation with human spaceflight programs is even more severe. The SLS rocket and Orion spacecraft, crucial to the Artemis program, are severely over budget and have yet to place humans into orbit, let alone reach the Moon. Despite investing nearly 24 billion dollars in the SLS and 20 billion dollars in the spacecraft, far exceeding the original target of a first mission in 2015, NASA has so far only conducted one successful uncrewed test flight. Almost every component of the program is setting new records for expenditure and delays.

To address this, the report proposes four key reform recommendations to keep the United States at the forefront of the space revolution. The government should work with Congress: First, reduce the regulatory burden on private space companies, particularly the onerous requirements of the Federal Aviation Administration. Second, retire the SLS as soon as possible after the first successful lunar landing (or earlier), while collaborating with private contractors to develop more affordable platforms for lunar and future Mars flights. Third, expand NASA's commercial programs while correcting management issues that have left some contractors struggling. Fourth, restructure NASA for the entrepreneurial era. Once freed from building spacecraft itself, NASA can focus more resources on what it does best: fundamental research and development, mission planning and management, and space science.

These changes will break up entrenched interests within NASA and may provoke congressional backlash, but maintaining the status quo will only lead to another lost decade in space exploration and cede critical space domains to China. By empowering private sector innovation and helping NASA leverage these advances, the United States can continue to maintain its global leadership in the peaceful development of space.