AI Command and Staff—Operational Evidence and Insights from Wargaming

Key Chapter Titles

1. Introduction: A Fictional Yet Plausible Future Scenario
2. Generative AI and Command & Control: Current Technological Trajectories and Strategic Risks
3. Operational Evidence from Wargames: AI's Impact on Cognition and Decision-Making
4. Imbalance Between Control Science and the Art of Command: The Dangers of Over-Optimization
5. Potential Impacts on the Use of Force: Misalignment of Strategic Utility and Force Synergy
6. Conclusion: Implications for Military Strategy and Future Force Design

Document Overview

This report focuses on the integration trend of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) within military Command and Control (C2) systems and the profound strategic concerns it raises. Currently, language-based probabilistic pattern-matching algorithms are being actively introduced into military planning activities and command and control exercises. While they present an appearance of intelligence, their true impact on human cognition and decision-making processes remains largely unknown. The report's central argument is that the uncritical integration of GenAI constitutes a fundamental strategic risk: it may disrupt the chain of transmission from command to the application of force.

The report begins by constructing a fictional yet highly credible future operational scenario—using the U.S. Army V Corps forward command post as an example—to reveal the potential operational dynamics of an AI-assisted decision-making environment. Building on this, the report provides an in-depth analysis of the inherent dangers in the current technological development trajectory. Specifically, an overemphasis on perfecting the science of control may lead to the atrophy of the art of command, ultimately resulting in a misalignment in the application of military force. This imbalance is not merely a question of technical efficiency; it touches the core of military strategy, concerning whether force, as an instrument of policy, can be applied with correct utility.

The research foundation of this report stems from the author's years of participation in experiments conducted in collaboration with the U.S. Army and the private sector. These experiments tested GenAI solutions within planning wargames and command and control exercises. Although the report does not exhaustively list specific wargame data, its analysis and conclusions are rooted in the evidence and trends observed from these practical operations. The report aims to sound a warning: the technological future being pursued by many military organizations may not yet fully appreciate the profound impact it could have on the foundations of military strategy and force synergy capabilities.

Ultimately, this assessment points out that blind reliance on AI may trap command structures in a cognitive dilemma where the algorithmically provided optimal solutions could erode the indispensable judgment, intuition, and creativity of commanders in complex, ambiguous, and friction-filled warfare environments. This is not merely a tactical-level challenge but a strategic-level issue. It demands that militaries, while embracing technological innovation, must carefully evaluate and defend the central role of humans in command decision-making to ensure an effective connection between strategic objectives and military means.