Ukraine: How Today's Investments Shape Tomorrow's Security

Key Chapter Title List

1. Executive Summary
2. Introduction
3. Socio-Political Development in Ukraine
4. Political and Legal Development in Ukraine
5. Security Development in Ukraine
6. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations

Document Introduction

This report, published by the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), aims to provide a strategic framework analysis on Ukraine's future for European and transatlantic allies. The core argument of the report is that Europe must now make decisive choices to shape the security landscape of 2036. Two starkly different futures lie ahead: one where Ukraine becomes a secure, integrated part of the European economic space, giving Europe a stable and predictable eastern flank; and another where Europe is forced to confront a hardened gray zone frontier at its EU borders, continuously draining budgets and diverting political attention. The report emphasizes that the distinction between these two futures depends on the current readiness of European leaders to establish a permanent defense posture within and with Ukraine, and to fund reconstruction in a transparent, performance-linked manner, while the United States provides structural support rather than frontline leadership.

The report's structure revolves around three core dimensions of Ukraine's development. First, at the socio-political level, it analyzes the profound social impacts of the war, including large-scale population displacement, veteran reintegration, and demographic challenges. The report clearly states that social policy is itself security policy and must support social cohesion and economic growth through large-scale demining to release land and housing, expanding pathways for veteran rehabilitation and re-employment, and implementing housing and labor market measures that connect internally displaced persons, returnees, and the diaspora.

Second, at the political and legal level, the report highlights the urgency of locking in institutional credibility. This includes clarifying emergency powers and central-local authority under martial law, completing performance-based judicial appointments, safeguarding the independence of anti-corruption bodies, and preparing for an inclusive first post-war election under the 2020 electoral law, ensuring voting rights for internally displaced persons and overseas citizens. These steps are crucial for ensuring political legitimacy and the continued advancement of reforms oriented toward European integration.

Finally, at the security level, the report argues that Europe must lead a visible and sustained deterrence effort within and with Ukraine. This requires shifting from temporary assistance to an institutionalized posture, including regular rotational training with Ukrainian forces, intelligence integration, building logistics and maintenance capabilities within Ukraine, and systematic hardening of energy, rail, and digital networks. The U.S. role is to provide continuity assurance through long-term agreements and deep intelligence/cyber cooperation. Simultaneously, reconstruction must proceed in parallel with defense and requires radical transparency through open data systems and a Ukraine-co-led unified coordination platform to attract private capital. The report estimates reconstruction needs could reach $524 billion over the next decade, with approximately 139,000 square kilometers of land affected by mine contamination.

The report's analytical method is based on extrapolating current trends and clearly states that the critical decision-making window for achieving a positive future is now, located in Berlin, Paris, Warsaw, Brussels, London, and Washington. Any political arrangement must be anchored in the West's implementation capacity, not merely reliant on a paper agreement. The report sets initial success metrics by the end of 2026, including establishing regular training rotations in Europe/with Ukraine, operational intelligence liaison mechanisms, maintenance capabilities within Ukraine, and hardened critical infrastructure nodes; on the Kyiv side, completing emergency powers legislation, substantive judicial staffing, election preparations covering displaced persons and overseas citizens, and reconstruction projects planned and audited via open data.