U.S. National Strategic Intelligence Monthly Report: Year Month

Key Chapter Title List

1. U.S. National Security Domain
2. Grand Strategy and Alliance Relations
3. Domestic Security and Borders
4. Nuclear Security and Deterrence
5. Escalation of Middle East Conflicts
6. Political Domain
7. Presidential Governance and Legal Constraints
8. Legislative Gamesmanship and Midterm Elections
9. Presidential Governance Style and Public Opinion
10. Diplomatic Domain
11. U.S.-China Relations: Structural Risks Amid Tactical Easing
12. The Russia-Ukraine War and U.S.-Europe Relations
13. The Middle East and the Islamic World
14. Asia-Pacific and Other Regional Diplomacy

Document Introduction

In February 2026, guided by the America First principle, the U.S. national security strategy faces a series of severe and intertwined challenges both domestically and internationally. This report aims to systematically assess the key dynamics of the United States in the areas of national security, domestic politics, and diplomacy during that month, revealing the internal logic, practical constraints, and potential risks of its strategic adjustments.

In the national security domain, the Trump administration's strategy exhibits a distinct tendency towards unilateralism and resource control. Its America First concept is reflected not only in downplaying the value of traditional allies but also in raising concerns within NATO about the alliance's foundation through unconventional ideas such as considering the acquisition of Greenland. Regarding domestic security, hardline immigration policies and partisan congressional conflicts constrain each other, leading to the Department of Homeland Security exhausting its budget and partially shutting down, exposing how domestic political disputes erode the foundation of national security. More globally impactful is the formal expiration of the U.S.-Russia New START Treaty on February 5 without a replacement agreement, marking the end of the post-Cold War nuclear arms control framework. Global strategic stability faces severe challenges, and the risk of a new arms race is rising. At the end of the month, U.S. national security faced a major test as U.S. forces, in coordination with Israel, launched a large-scale military strike against Iran codenamed "Epic Fury," aiming to destroy Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities and achieve regime change. While this action severely damaged Iran's command system in the short term, it immediately provoked missile retaliation from Iran, leading to regional tensions, fluctuations in international oil prices, and potentially dragging the U.S. into prolonged conflict and terrorist retaliation risks, highlighting the complex costs of a preemptive strategy.

On the political front, the Trump administration's governance style and institutional constraints clashed intensely this month. The President touted his administration's achievements in the State of the Union address, but many of his policies driven by executive orders are facing strong correction from the judicial system, as evidenced by the Supreme Court ruling his signature tariff policy illegal. Simultaneously, with the midterm elections approaching, legislative battles in Congress are intensifying. The Republican-pushed "Protect American Elections Act" and Democratic efforts to leverage the budget to constrain immigration policies have highly politicized the issues of immigration and election security, reflecting the deepening political polarization in the United States. Trump's strategy of consolidating his base rather than seeking bipartisan consensus, while energizing core supporters, also faces governance challenges including ongoing legal battles, divided public opinion, and concerns from moderate lawmakers, casting doubt on both the legal certainty and political sustainability of his policies.

The diplomatic landscape presents a complex picture. U.S.-China relations entered a period of tactical easing, characterized by planned increases in high-level interactions, U.S. concessions on issues like chip exports, and downplaying China's designation as a competitor in strategic documents, attempting to create an atmosphere of a "grand truce." However, the underlying structural competition risks remain unresolved. On the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while the U.S. restored security commitments to Ukraine, the unilateral peace negotiation plan previously promoted by the Trump administration heightened European allies' doubts about U.S. reliability. U.S.-Europe relations are undergoing sensitive adjustments despite the overarching direction of cooperation against Russia. Middle East diplomacy is marked by contradictions. While the U.S. proposed a Gaza peace plan to project an image of a peacemaker, the military strike against Iran at month's end pushed the region to the brink of war, raising questions about its strategic consistency. In the Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and multilateral arenas, U.S. diplomacy exhibits clear transactional and unilateralist characteristics, such as strategic neglect towards North Korea, military action in Venezuela to demonstrate influence, and continued cuts to foreign aid and funding for international organizations. While this aligns with its narrative of focusing on national interests, it also exacerbates distrust among allies and the international community, potentially prompting other power centers to seek alternative cooperation.

In summary, the United States in February 2026 is at a critical juncture characterized by deep adjustments in both domestic and foreign policies alongside multiple concurrent challenges. While its America First strategy pursues quick gains and threat elimination, it is profoundly suffering from a series of derivative risks including alienation from allies, backlash from domestic institutions, escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and damage to its credibility as a global leader. The series of events this month indicate that the long-term effectiveness of U.S. national strategy will depend on its ability to find a sustainable balance between unilateral action and multilateral coordination, tactical risk-taking and strategic stability, and domestic political mobilization and institutional norms.