Technical Assistance Report on the National Accounts of Mongolia

Key Chapter Title List

1. Summary: Overview of Mission Outcomes and Priority Recommendations
2. Recommendations
3. Detailed Technical Assessment and Recommendations
4. Quarterly GDP by Production Approach
5. GDP by Expenditure Approach
6. Officials Met During the Mission

Document Introduction

This report is the outcome document of a technical assistance (TA) mission conducted by the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Regional Capacity Development Center for the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Mongolia (CCAMTAC) to the National Statistics Office of Mongolia (NSO) from July 21 to 25, 2025. The core objective of this mission was to assist the NSO in improving the compilation methodology of its national accounts, specifically to advance the transition from a fixed-base-year approach to chain-linked volume estimation. This transition aims to more accurately reflect the recent changes in Mongolia's economic structure and enhance the international comparability and internal consistency of macroeconomic statistics.

The report first outlines the mission's main findings and priority recommendations. The NSO currently compiles constant price GDP data using 2015 as the fixed base year and has, following recommendations from the October 2024 CCAMTAC TA mission, experimentally compiled quarterly chain-linked time series for GDP by the production approach (GDP-P). However, a comparison between these experimental results and the currently published data revealed significant discrepancies, primarily attributable to the rapid evolution of Mongolia's economic structure in recent years. The report notes that the current quarterly GDP-P is compiled only at the two-digit level of the International Standard Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC Rev.4), whereas a superior chain-linked time series should be based on the structure of the Supply and Use Tables (SUT) and include as many economic activity types and product details as possible. The NSO compiles SUTs every five years, with the latest version being for 2019.

Regarding GDP by the expenditure approach (GDP-E), the NSO has also experimentally compiled chain-linked time series. At this stage, there is a significant discrepancy (statistical discrepancy) between the estimates for GDP-P and GDP-E. To address this issue, the report proposes a key recommendation: compile the 2024 Supply and Use Table (SUT). The 2024 SUT will serve as the benchmark framework for reconciling the GDP estimates from the production and expenditure approaches, thereby significantly improving the overall quality of the chain-linked time series. On this basis, the NSO can then consider officially releasing the chain-linked GDP series to replace the current results based on the fixed 2015 base year.

The core section of the report, Detailed Technical Assessment and Recommendations, presents a prioritized (High/Medium) action plan with milestones. This plan aims to systematically advance the modernization of the national accounts system. High-priority actions include: finalizing the compilation of the chain-linked GDP series; increasing human resources and enhancing skills in the national accounts department; compiling quarterly GDP according to ISIC Rev.4 divisions; assessing the level of detail in existing data sources to determine the number of activities that can be covered in the chain series; compiling chain-linked GDP-P and GDP-E series using the annual overlap technique; reconciling the two and analyzing the level of statistical discrepancy; and compiling the 2024 current price Supply and Use Table. The report particularly emphasizes the importance of data for the coal sector, recommending the compilation of coal output data by detailed type and a current price coal balance sheet by February 2026 to support subsequent calculations of detailed coal value-added.

The technical appendix of the report provides assessments in specific areas. In the section on Quarterly GDP by Production Approach, it confirms that the NSO has successfully compiled quarterly chain-linked GDP-P series using the annual overlap technique, ensuring consistency between annual and quarterly national accounts. The series were compiled based on 2015 and 2019 base years; the choice of base year does not affect the annual growth rate of real GDP, but using a more recent base year is recommended. In the section on GDP by Expenditure Approach, a table showing the composition of nominal GDP by expenditure category is presented. The report concludes with a list of officials met during the mission, along with relevant abbreviations, a list of development partner members, and a disclaimer. This report provides a detailed technical roadmap and operational guide for professional statisticians, macroeconomic analysts, and policymakers concerned with the quality of Mongolia's economic data.