The Importance of the "Zirini" National Defense and Military Development Plan

Key Chapter Titles

1. Introduction
2. Reasons for Launching the Modernization Plan
3. The Armed Forces of Poland and Hungary Before 2016
4. Organizational and Legal Reforms of the Polish and Hungarian Armed Forces
5. Equipment Procurement for the Polish and Hungarian Armed Forces
6. Personnel Structure of the Polish and Hungarian Armed Forces
7. Capabilities and Roles of the Polish and Hungarian Armed Forces
8. Conclusion

Document Introduction

This paper aims to assess the significance of the Hungarian government's Zrínyi 2026 Medium-Term Modernization Plan and its impact on regional military security. The core context of the study lies in the fact that following the 2008 economic crisis, the military systems of Central European countries experienced a mid-term collapse and crisis, with the role of military security in security policy being underestimated. However, a series of geopolitical events, including the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the migration crisis, and the U.S. withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, have prompted countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Hungary to recognize the renewed necessity of enhancing their own military capabilities. Against this backdrop, the Zrínyi 2026 Plan emerged, attempting to provide solutions for Hungary to address the aforementioned security challenges.

To thoroughly elucidate the plan's significance, this study employs a comparative analysis method, systematically comparing Hungary's military modernization process with that of its neighbor, Poland. Although Poland's modernization plan (2013-2022) was launched earlier, there are key qualitative differences between the two. Poland's reforms primarily focused on equipment renewal, whereas the objectives of the Zrínyi 2026 Plan are more comprehensive, aiming to simultaneously transform the equipment, structure, and organization of the armed forces to systematically enhance their overall capabilities. This fundamental intent for transformation constitutes the focal point of this study's analysis.

The report first analyzes the three core drivers prompting Hungary to launch the plan: the migration crisis exposed the inadequacies of domestic security forces, leading the government to expand the military's authority through legal amendments, assigning it the task of border defense when security service forces are insufficient; the hybrid warfare threats stemming from the Ukraine conflict; and the potential for a new arms race triggered by the U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty, which could alter European countries' attitudes towards security. Subsequently, the article details the foundational status of the Polish and Hungarian armed forces before 2016, pointing out that the Hungarian Defense Forces were relatively small in scale, equipped with outdated technology (primarily relying on Soviet/Russian technology procured in the 1970s-1990s), and suffered from long-term underinvestment. In contrast, Poland, due to its geopolitical position, has always placed greater emphasis on military security, initiated key procurement projects such as F-16 fighter jets and Rosomak armored vehicles after 2001, and its participation in international operations far exceeded that of Hungary.

In analyzing the specific reform content, the report unfolds from three dimensions: organizational/legal, equipment procurement, and personnel structure. At the organizational level, Hungary's key reform was separating the Commander of the Defense Forces from the Ministry of Defense, while Poland established a new command structure in 2013 with the General Command of the Armed Forces and the Operational Command. Regarding equipment, the article outlines procurement and renewal plans in both countries for areas such as fighter aircraft, helicopters, armored vehicles, and anti-tank missiles. In terms of personnel, the Zrínyi 2026 Plan explicitly announced the goal of increasing reserve forces to 20,000 and active personnel to approximately 38,000, aiming to build a more sustainable force structure.

Through the above comparative analysis, the core finding of this report is that the Zrínyi 2026 Plan represents Hungary's ambition for a deep, structural transformation of its armed forces, extending beyond mere weapon replacement. The plan attempts to fundamentally enhance Hungary's military capabilities in addressing modern security challenges (including hybrid threats and border crises) through comprehensive organizational restructuring, capacity building, and force structure adjustments, thereby reshaping its security role in the Central European region in the process. This study provides a specific and in-depth case for understanding the adjustments in military security strategies of Central European countries, particularly those within the Visegrád Group, under new geopolitical pressures in the post-Cold War era.