Assessment of U.S. Military Industrial Production Capacity Bottlenecks and War Sustainability ()

Key Chapter Title List

1. Bottlenecks in U.S. Ammunition Production Capacity
2. Bottlenecks in U.S. Shipbuilding Capacity
3. Localization Level of the U.S. Defense Industrial Supply Chain
4. Impact of the Ukraine-Israel Conflicts on U.S. Inventory Levels
5. A Realistic Assessment of U.S. Multi-Front Warfare Capability
6. Appendix:

• Appendix_1_US_Emergency_Weapons_Shipment_to_Israel_More_to_Come.pdf
• Appendix_2_Helping_Ukraine_Force_US_Weapons_Production.pdf
• Appendix_3_Why_Russia_Outpaces_the_US_and_NATO_in_Weapons_Production.pdf
• Appendix_4_US_Plans_to_Produce_100000_Shells_Monthly_by_2025_Despite_Production_Challenges.pdf
• Appendix_5_Army_Modernizing_and_Expanding_Ammunition_Production_Facilities.pdf

Document Introduction

Since the mid-2020s, the international security landscape has remained turbulent. The protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict, large-scale military operations in the Middle East, and simultaneous U.S. military aid to both Ukraine and Israel constitute a complex strategic environment. Concurrently, the United States perceives potential threats from a major competitor in the Indo-Pacific region. Against this backdrop, the U.S. government has publicly asserted its capability to handle multiple conflicts simultaneously. This report aims to examine the industrial foundation supporting this political declaration through rigorous data analysis and case studies, assessing the bottlenecks in U.S. defense industrial capacity and the sustainability of its multi-front warfare strategy.

The report first focuses on bottlenecks in U.S. ammunition production capacity. Following the end of the Cold War, the U.S. defense industry entered a "peace dividend" phase, leading to reduced demand, aging factory equipment, and a shrinking supply chain. The outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict exposed severe lags in Western ammunition production, with Ukrainian forces consuming artillery shells daily at rates far exceeding original Western production capacities. In response, the U.S. initiated emergency expansion plans, increasing monthly production of 155mm artillery shells from approximately 14,000 in early 2022 to 28,000 in the second half of 2023, with a target of reaching 100,000 shells per month by 2025. However, the expansion process faces constraints from shortages of core raw materials and components. For instance, black powder, a key propellant for over 300 types of ammunition, relies on a single factory for supply, creating a single point of failure in the supply chain.

Secondly, the report analyzes bottlenecks in the U.S. shipbuilding industry. U.S. naval shipbuilding capacity is limited, with aging shipyard facilities and labor shortages. Several key vessel programs, such as the Virginia-class attack submarine, Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine, and Ford-class aircraft carrier, have experienced varying degrees of delay. Simultaneously, a significant backlog in vessel maintenance affects fleet readiness. The report compares U.S. shipbuilding capacity with that of its primary strategic competitor, highlighting the industrial base challenges the U.S. faces in the context of potential multi-fleet confrontation.

The third section assesses the localization level of the U.S. defense industrial supply chain. The report points out U.S. dependence on foreign sources for critical minerals, electronic components, and certain specialty materials, highlighting significant supply chain vulnerabilities. Although the U.S. has launched initiatives for "friend-shoring" and domestic production to enhance resilience, reshaping complex supply chains and achieving autonomy in critical segments requires long-term effort.

The fourth section quantitatively assesses the impact of the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel on U.S. weapons inventory levels. The report notes that sustained aid to Ukraine has led to significant depletion of conventional ammunition stocks for the U.S. and its allies, particularly 155mm artillery shells. Concurrently, to meet Israel's conflict needs, the U.S. has emergency-transferred high-end air defense munitions, including Iron Dome interceptors, further intensifying inventory pressure. This dual depletion poses severe challenges to the readiness of U.S. forces and the replenishment cycle for ammunition.

Based on the above analysis, the report concludes with a realistic assessment of the U.S.-claimed multi-front warfare capability. The conclusion states that U.S. industrial capacity bottlenecks constrain the sustainability of maintaining multiple high-intensity conflicts over the long term; inventory depletion and logistical resupply challenges weaken sustained combat capability; although the alliance system and political will provide some support, a significant gap remains between the existing defense industrial base and political declarations. Synthesizing authoritative data from recent years, this report aims to provide defense researchers, policy analysts, and geopolitical observers with an in-depth assessment of the true resilience of the U.S. war machine.