Draft of Ukraine's National Energy and Climate Plan (2021-2030)

Key Chapter Title List

1. Plan Overview and Development Process
2. Executive Summary
3. Political, Economic, Environmental, and Social Context of the Plan
4. Strategies Related to the Five Dimensions of the Energy Union
5. Major Issues: Impact of War, Economic Recession, Institutional Capacity, and Debt Crisis
6. Key Strategic Objectives (Through 2030)
7. Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction and Climate Neutrality Goals
8. Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Targets
9. Energy Security and Market Integration Goals
10. Innovation, Competition, and Consumer Protection

Document Introduction

This document is the draft of Ukraine's "National Energy and Climate Plan (2025-2030)," a strategic document designed to coordinate energy and climate policies to ensure Ukraine's sustainable development and economic recovery. The development of this plan is an obligation undertaken by Ukraine under the Treaty Establishing the Energy Community, requiring compliance with EU Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 and relevant methodological recommendations from the European Commission. Furthermore, the development and approval of this plan is one of the conditions for Ukraine to receive future financial assistance from the EU Ukraine Facility. The draft was led by an expert team from the DiXi Group think tank and the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, developed with support from the British Embassy and the U.S. Net Zero World Initiative, and coordinated by the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine on behalf of the government.

The development and implementation of this plan face multiple severe challenges, with the core context being Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine. The war has caused systemic shocks to Ukraine's economy, particularly the energy sector. Citing official data, the document points out that since the full-scale invasion, Ukraine's energy infrastructure has suffered extensive damage, including hundreds of missile and drone attacks on critical facilities such as power plants and gas pipelines, leading to a temporary loss of approximately 50% of the available power generation capacity and transmission infrastructure across the national electricity system. The war directly resulted in a 28.7% decrease in natural gas consumption, a 30-35% decrease in electricity consumption, and a 6.7% decrease in natural gas extraction. Additionally, cyber attacks targeting the energy sector have surged, with preliminary estimates of environmental damage exceeding 56 billion euros. These factors collectively constitute the main obstacles to the plan's implementation: the uncertainty of the war's duration and recovery process, energy poverty issues triggered by economic recession, the diminished capacity of state institutions to perform policy functions during the crisis, and the massive debt accumulated within the energy supply chain.

Against this backdrop, this plan aims to integrate and coordinate Ukraine's existing complex energy and climate policy system, filling gaps and adjusting specific measures to ensure the achievement of a series of ambitious strategic goals. This goal system covers multiple dimensions of the Energy Union and sets specific quantitative targets for 2030. In the climate and environmental dimension, core objectives include: reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 65% compared to 1990 levels and establishing a pathway for the energy sector to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. In the energy transition and security dimension, targets include: increasing the share of renewable energy in the gross final energy consumption to at least 27%; limiting primary energy consumption to within 72.224 million tonnes of oil equivalent and final energy consumption to within 42.168 million tonnes of oil equivalent; reducing import dependency (gross imports in total primary energy supply) to 33%, and deepening the diversification of energy supply sources and routes, ensuring no single supplier exceeds a 30% share.

In the market integration and competitiveness dimension, the plan is committed to achieving full integration of Ukraine's electricity and natural gas markets with European markets, establishing markets with competitive energy pricing mechanisms, complemented by support measures for vulnerable consumers. Furthermore, the plan emphasizes the development and financing of innovation and research in clean technologies, renewable energy, and low-carbon production to enhance overall economic competitiveness. The document notes that the completeness, relevance, and coordination of the current policy system are key to achieving these strategic objectives. This NECP is designed to address these issues, building a comprehensive climate governance architecture to bridge post-war reconstruction and sustainable development.