Semi-Monthly Report on the Security and Comprehensive Situation of the Korean Peninsula (Month Day to Month Day)

Key Chapter Title List

1. Political Situation on the Peninsula
2. Domestic Political Situation in North Korea
3. Domestic Political Situation in South Korea
4. Diplomatic Developments
5. Inter-Korean Interactions
6. North Korea's Relations with China and Russia
7. South Korea-U.S.-Japan Cooperation
8. Military and Security Dynamics
9. North Korea's Military Moves
10. South Korea's Military and Security Policies
11. Economic and Technological Developments
12. North Korea's Economy and Technology
13. South Korea's Economy and Technology

Document Introduction

At the beginning of 2026, the situation on the Korean Peninsula presented complex dynamics. On one hand, significant political changes occurred in South Korea, with the newly inaugurated President Lee Jae-myung demonstrating notably different policy adjustments in domestic and foreign affairs compared to his predecessor. On the other hand, North Korea showcased its military strength through missile tests and tough rhetoric in response to perceived external threats. This report aims to systematically organize and analyze a series of important events involving North and South Korea in the areas of national security, politics, diplomacy, military affairs, economy, and technology from January 1 to 15, 2026.

The report first delves into the political situation on the Peninsula. Regarding North Korea, the focus is on the political preparations for the upcoming Ninth Party Congress. At the 13th Plenary Meeting of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea presided over by Kim Jong-un at the end of 2025, he unusually publicly admitted to sending soldiers, artillery, and providing missile aid to support Russia's military operations in the Ukraine war, mentioning that North Korea and Russia had signed a mutual defense treaty, highlighting the deepening quasi-alliance relationship between Pyongyang and Moscow. Simultaneously, the replacement of high-level North Korean guard commanders was assessed as Kim Jong-un raising security levels due to concerns about assassination threats, indirectly reflecting internal political tensions. Regarding South Korea, the report details the political reckoning and reform agenda following the inauguration of the Lee Jae-myung administration. The new government is pursuing judicial accountability against former President Yoon Suk-yeol for allegedly ordering a drone provocation against North Korea in 2024 to create a crisis and subsequently attempt a coup by imposing martial law, under the charge of aiding the enemy, and is committed to rebuilding democratic order. Lee Jae-myung proposed five major transformation paths, designating 2026 as the first year of the Great Leap, promoting a series of domestic reforms including regional balanced development, establishing a 150 trillion won national growth fund, and formulating the first national budget for the AI era.

At the diplomatic and security level, the report assesses the new patterns of inter-Korean interaction and the evolution of great power competition. The Lee Jae-myung administration clearly shifted to a stability and growth path supported by peace, actively considering the restoration of the 2018 September 19 Military Agreement to reduce the risk of miscalculation and conflict. However, the drone dispute at the beginning of the year cast a shadow over the détente process, with North Korea issuing a strong protest. Meanwhile, North Korea continued to strengthen strategic coordination with China and Russia, with its military cooperation with Russia becoming a key variable in the Peninsula and regional security landscape. In contrast, while South Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral cooperation continued during the Lee Jae-myung administration, South Korea placed greater emphasis on independent defense and pragmatic diplomacy, attempting to balance alliance relations with Peninsula détente policies.

In the military and security domain, the report tracks the military movements of both sides. During the reporting period, North Korea conducted tests of new tactical missiles and publicly mentioned the deployment of several new weapon systems, continuously strengthening its nuclear deterrence and conventional combat capabilities. South Korea focused on promoting the operational deployment of the Korean-style Three-Axis System and adjusted its defense procurement strategy, emphasizing weapon localization and supply chain security. In terms of economy and technology, North Korean official propaganda emphasized overcoming bottlenecks in the five-year plan in 2025, attempting to create a positive economic narrative for the Ninth Party Congress. South Korea, meanwhile, focused on economic recovery, export growth, and increased investment in key technology areas such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors, viewing them as core to national strategic competitiveness.

Based on an integrated analysis of official statements from both sides of the Peninsula, military dynamics, economic data, and international reactions, this report aims to provide professional readers with a timely and in-depth assessment of the turning point in the Peninsula situation in early 2026. The report's content is strictly based on available information, avoiding unfounded speculation. Its analysis aids in understanding the realignment of forces within and around the Peninsula and potential future risks and opportunities.