Trump Reshapes the Global Trade Landscape and an Analysis of Uncertainty in 2024

Key Chapter Title List

1. Nature Definition: Trade Policy Uncertainty under Rules-based Terrorism
2. Motivation Decoding: Domestic Politics, Manufacturing Reshoring, and Supply Chain Games with China
3. Impact Simulation: Global Trade Shock and Alliance Contradictions
4. Trend Prediction: Trade Bloc Formation and New Game Risks
5. Our Response and Countermeasure Strategies

File Introduction

This report aims to provide a systematic and forward-looking strategic assessment of the radical trade policies implemented during Trump's second term (starting from 2025). The core argument of the report is that the Trump administration's trade strategy is essentially a form of rules-based terrorism that leverages the United States' hegemonic position. Its defining characteristic is not merely high tariffs, but rather the creation of persistent uncertainty in trade and economic rules through frequent and unpredictable policy reversals, thereby triggering panic-driven migration and restructuring of global capital and industrial chains. In 2025, the U.S. average import tariff rate surged from less than 3% to approximately 17%, reaching a level unseen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Coupled with policy flip-flops, it became the primary source of uncertainty for the global economy.

The report first defines the nature of Trump's trade policies. The analysis points out that the U.S. government abandoned its traditional role of upholding free trade rules. In the name of "America First," it disregarded the cornerstone of WTO Most-Favored-Nation treatment and arbitrarily employed unilateral emergency powers to intervene in global trade. This strategy of pressuring opponents by exploiting rule uncertainty constitutes a form of trade bullying that uses rules as a pretext for intimidation. Its direct consequences include exacerbating turmoil in global financial markets and forcing businesses and investors, unable to predict policy directions, to engage in risk-averse "voting with their feet," leading to a precautionary restructuring of global supply chains.

At the motivational level, the report decodes its "killing three birds with one stone" strategic intent. In the short term, tough trade measures aim to satisfy domestic political demands, catering to the protectionist sentiments of core voters, and carry a performative political effect. The medium-term goal focuses on promoting the reshoring of manufacturing to the U.S., although preliminary data indicates that under tariff shocks, U.S. manufacturers' willingness to expand production and hire has been dampened. The long-term strategy directly targets the tug-of-war over global supply chains with China, intending to use tariffs and uncertainty pressure to force multinational corporations to reduce reliance on China and accelerate supply chain de-risking adjustments, thereby reshaping the global production network in favor of the U.S. in strategic competition.

The report further simulates the global shocks and inherent contradictions triggered by this policy. On one hand, high tariffs directly increase input costs and market price expectations for global enterprises, causing drastic changes in trade flows. On the other hand, contradictions between the U.S. and its traditional allies have intensified as a result. For example, the "Independence Day Tariff" plan targeting all allies in early 2025, though temporarily suspended, severely shook alliance mutual trust, forcing various countries to seek diversification of trade relations to hedge risks. This "America First" unilateralism is eroding the foundation of the alliance system established and led by the U.S. since World War II.

Based on the above analysis, the report makes predictions for trends in 2026 and beyond. The global trade system may accelerate towards bloc formation, creating distinct trade blocs centered around the U.S., China, the EU, etc. The importance of regional trade agreements (such as CPTPP, RCEP) will further increase, while the multilateral WTO system faces a heightened risk of marginalization. Simultaneously, the linkage between trade policy and geopolitics, technological competition, and financial sanctions will become tighter, increasing the risk of hybrid conflicts. In the final section, the report proposes a systematic framework for response and countermeasure strategies, covering areas such as promoting export market diversification, accelerating breakthroughs in high-end manufacturing, leveraging strategic resource advantages for precise countermeasures, tapping into domestic market potential, and persisting in multilateral cooperation.

The analysis in this report is based on a comprehensive review of the 2025 policy trajectory, market reactions, and related think tank research. It aims to provide policymakers and analysts with an in-depth assessment of the paradigm shift in U.S. trade policy and its global impact.