National Security and Strategic Intelligence Biweekly Report: Month Day to Month Day

Key Chapter Title List

1. U.S. National Security Domain
2. U.S. Political Domain

Document Introduction

This report aims to provide a professional assessment of the key dynamics in U.S. national security and domestic politics during the first half of January 2026. The report indicates that U.S. national security strategy is undergoing significant adjustments, shifting its focus from traditional international counter-terrorism towards dual dimensions of great power competition and domestic security control. Concurrently, the domestic political agenda is advancing at an unprecedented scale and speed under the backdrop of Republican Party's full control of government, profoundly shaping the internal and external policy environment of the United States.

In the national security domain, the report first analyzes the expanded Global Travel Ban that took effect on January 1, 2026. This ban significantly increased the list of countries subject to terrorism-related entry restrictions from 19 to 39, and imposed restrictions on individuals holding Palestinian Authority travel documents. The new regulations implement a full entry suspension for 12 of these countries and a partial visa suspension for the other 27. Its official objective targets foreigners attempting to carry out terrorist attacks, threatening U.S. national security and public safety, committing hate crimes, or maliciously exploiting immigration laws. This move signifies that counter-terrorism and immigration security remain core components of U.S. national security policy and foreshadows further tightening of visa and immigration controls.

Simultaneously, the U.S. domestic security landscape presents a complex new reality. The report cites the January 2026 fatal shooting of Minnesota resident Renee Good by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents as an example, revealing the trend of the Trump administration expanding the domestic terrorism label into the immigration enforcement domain. Since 2025, the administration, through means such as presidential memoranda, has explicitly designated certain extremist groups promoting mass immigration and open borders, along with their violent methods, as priority targets for suppression, and has characterized some anti-immigration protest activities as terrorist activities. Although this strategy has sparked legal controversy, it reflects the government's strategic intent to elevate domestic radical protests and immigration issues to the level of national security threats for deterrence.

The report further points out that the U.S. security focus is shifting from counter-terrorism to great power competition. As 2026 marks the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, national resources and attention are shifting from combating international terrorist organizations to addressing global challenges. However, the global terrorism threat has not dissipated; extremist organizations including Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State continue to expand in conflict zones, while political violence and ideological extremism are on the rise within Western societies. Additionally, the report warns of the potential risk of horizontal escalation that could arise from designating Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations, meaning that suppressed transnational drug cartels and gangs might extend violence directly onto U.S. soil for retaliatory attacks. Meanwhile, the threat of terrorists using advanced drone technology for reconnaissance or attacks in Western countries has also drawn attention from the intelligence community in 2026.

In the political domain, the report provides an in-depth analysis of the landmark legislative achievement launched at the beginning of Trump's second term—the "One Big Beautiful Act." This nearly 900-page comprehensive bill was signed into law on July 4, 2025, encompassing almost all the long-accumulated policy demands of the Republican Party. Regarding taxation, the bill permanently extended the individual income tax cuts from the 2017 Trump era, estimated to contain approximately $4.5 trillion in tax reductions. High-income families benefit by an average of about $12,000 per year, while low-income groups lose an average of $1,600 annually due to cuts in Medicaid and food stamp subsidies. The bill also introduced temporary tax relief for tip income, overtime pay, and auto loan interest, and provided a $6,000 income tax credit for low- and middle-income senior citizens.

Regarding spending, the bill significantly adjusted federal priorities, allocating a one-time increase of $300 billion for defense and law enforcement. This includes $150 billion for foreign defense and $150 billion for the U.S.-Mexico border wall construction, 100,000 immigration detention beds, and large-scale deportation operations. In stark contrast, the bill substantially cut spending on programs aligned with the Democratic Party: reducing Medicaid funding by 12% over the next decade, phasing out clean energy subsidies, and tightening eligibility for food stamps. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill will net increase the federal deficit by $3.4 trillion between 2025 and 2034, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio from a previously projected 117% to 126% by 2034, and potentially causing about 10.9 million people to lose health insurance. Independent think tanks criticize the bill for exacerbating wealth inequality, calling it the largest transfer of wealth from the bottom to the top in U.S. history.

This significant and highly politicized policy reform has caused strong reverberations in the American political arena. Democrats strongly oppose the bill, condemning it for sacrificing the welfare of the poor in exchange for tax cuts for the rich. The bill passed the House of Representatives by a narrow margin of 218 to 214 votes, and required Vice President J.D. Vance to break a 50-50 tie in the Senate to pass, making its legislative process fraught with difficulties. This report posits that the dynamics in these two major domains collectively outline the overall picture of the United States at the beginning of 2026: a strategic focus turning inward, polarized policy paths, and a socio-economic structure facing profound adjustments.