Trump's stance on Iranian protesters softens, but the threat of military strikes remains. The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Middle Eastern bases has triggered dramatic changes in the regional security landscape.

Key Chapter Title List

1. Major Findings
2. Scale of Domestic Protests in Iran, Casualty Figures, and Severe Challenges to Regime Stability
3. Trump's Military Threats Against Iran and the Political Signal of Impending Aid
4. US Troop Withdrawal from Middle East Bases and Iran's Threat of Retaliation
5. Softening of Trump's Stance and Response from Iranian Foreign Minister
6. Risk Points and Impact Analysis
7. Probability of US Military Strike on Iran and Its Disruptive Impact on Middle East Security Landscape
8. Iranian Regime Fragility and the Threat of Spillover from Internal Turmoil to East Power's Energy Security in the Middle East
9. Potential Impact of Trump's 25% Tariff on Iran's Trade Partners on East Power's Economy
10. Long-term Impact of US Military Withdrawal from Middle East Bases on Regional Security Landscape and East Power's Strategic Opportunities
11. Countermeasure Recommendations
12. Strengthen Strategic Communication with Iran, Support Iran in Safeguarding National Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity
13. Promote the Establishment of a Middle East Regional Security Mechanism to Maintain Regional Peace, Stability, and East Power's Energy Security

Document Introduction

In January 2026, Iran experienced large-scale protests triggered by deteriorating economic conditions and currency devaluation, which rapidly escalated into a comprehensive challenge to the Islamic Republic regime. According to data from the US-based human rights organization HRANA, as of January 14, the protests had resulted in the deaths of 2,403 protesters and 147 government-related personnel, far exceeding the casualty figures of the 2022 and 2009 protests. Iranian officials also acknowledged that over 2,000 people had been killed in the protests. This turmoil was described by the French Foreign Minister as the most violent crackdown in Iran's contemporary history. The Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces also admitted that the country faced unprecedented levels of destruction and accused foreign enemies of inciting the unrest. This most severe internal strife since the establishment of the Islamic Republic marks a new peak in the regime's fragility, planting significant variables for the regional security situation.

Simultaneously, the US Trump administration displayed a complex and contradictory posture towards Iran. On one hand, Trump repeatedly threatened military action against Iran and publicly supported protesters in overthrowing the Iranian regime. On January 14, he warned that if Iran executed protesters, the US would take "very strong action" and declared that "aid is coming." According to The New York Times, Trump had been briefed on new options for military strikes against Iran, with European and Israeli officials judging US military intervention as potentially imminent. On the other hand, on the same day, Trump stated he had received information that the Iranian government's crackdown on protesters was easing and that there were currently no plans for mass executions, though he did not rule out the possibility of military action. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi publicly denied any plans for hangings. This brinkmanship and ambiguous statements heightened uncertainty in the regional situation.

As a precautionary measure against escalating tensions, the US began withdrawing some personnel from key Middle Eastern bases, including the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, starting January 14. This move was interpreted by Western military officials as a signal of an imminent US attack and part of its strategy of unpredictability. Senior Iranian officials issued warnings to regional countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Turkey, stating that US military bases in these countries would become targets for retaliation if the US struck Iran. Recalling the precedent of the US airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, which prompted Iranian missile retaliation, the risk of a new round of military conflict has significantly increased. Iran's formidable missile and drone capabilities, along with its proxy networks in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria, are sufficient to spill the crisis across the entire Middle East, having a disruptive impact on the regional security landscape.

The report provides an in-depth analysis of the severe challenges and potential opportunities this crisis poses to a specific extra-regional major power (referred to as East Power in the report). The primary threat lies in energy security and economic interests. This country is Iran's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade exceeding $30 billion in 2024, and Iran is its third-largest oil supplier. If the Iranian regime collapses due to internal turmoil compounded by external pressure, it could lead to massive losses for this country's energy investments and trade in Iran and affect the strategic node layout of its Belt and Road Initiative in the Middle East. Secondly, Trump's threat to impose a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran could force this country to make a difficult choice between US market access and its relationship with Iran, posing a severe impact on its economy, and potentially be used by the US as leverage to weaken its influence in the Middle East.

However, the US military's strategic retraction may also bring geopolitical opportunities. The reduction of the US military presence in the Middle East could create space for a realignment of forces in the region. The report suggests that this country could actively expand its influence by strengthening economic, trade, security cooperation, and people-to-people exchanges with Middle Eastern countries, filling potential power vacuums. However, it must simultaneously remain vigilant against the power vacuums and geopolitical turbulence that US troop withdrawal might trigger, which could also threaten its regional interests.

Based on the above analysis, the report proposes systematic countermeasure recommendations. At the bilateral level, it should strengthen strategic communication with Iran, support Iran in safeguarding its sovereignty and territorial integrity, oppose interference in internal affairs by external forces, and help Iran alleviate economic difficulties by deepening cooperation in energy, infrastructure, and trade. At the multilateral level, it should utilize platforms such as the United Nations to promote international opposition to US military threats and economic sanctions against Iran, and actively advocate for the establishment of a Middle East regional security mechanism to maintain regional peace and stability, fundamentally safeguarding its own energy security and strategic interests. The report emphasizes the need to be vigilant against the possibility of the US exploiting Iran's internal turmoil to promote regime change and install a pro-US government, thereby weakening this country's influence in the Middle East.