NATO Chief Scientist Research Report: Cognitive Warfare

Key Chapter Title List

1. Preface
2. Strategic Environment
3. The Resurgence of Cognitive Warfare
4. NATO's Approach to Cognitive Warfare
5. STO Research Activities on Cognitive Warfare
6. Collaboration with Other NATO Entities
7. Conclusion

Document Introduction

This report is part of the NATO Chief Scientist Report series, aiming to provide NATO senior political and military leadership with clear, evidence-based insights into scientific and technological developments. The report translates complex research findings into actionable analysis to help the Alliance anticipate potential technological disruptions, identify possible capability gaps, and make strategic adjustments to shape the future security environment and battlespace. The content is based entirely on research and analysis conducted by the NATO Science and Technology Organization (STO) and does not represent the official position of NATO or any member government.

Currently, NATO finds itself in an unpredictable strategic environment where strategic competitors and potential adversaries exploit the openness and interconnectedness of Western societies, targeting the security of Allied citizens through hybrid tactics. The report notes that understanding human behavior and the underlying cognition is crucial for strategic and military decision-making. Whether to enhance one's own situational awareness, judgment, and planning capabilities, or to better predict, manipulate, and understand adversary behavior, NATO increasingly recognizes the need to deepen its understanding of human cognition. With the emergence of advanced AI tools and the growing threat of hybrid attacks manipulating public opinion, investing in our current and future capabilities to defend against and conduct cognitive warfare has become more important than ever.

The report first analyzes the macro trends shaping NATO's strategic environment, particularly the trend of fragmented public trust. Many threat actors have long used weaponized tactics to influence our perception and decision-making abilities. Propaganda, deception, interference, and manipulation are tactics used by NATO adversaries to alter the cognition and behavior of Allied citizens to serve their own interests. These actors exploit the freedoms and protections guaranteed by democracies to wage cognitive warfare. Using Russia's actions before and during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as an example, the report illustrates that modern interstate war can be both a war of attrition and a war that reaches the human mind through digital information technology, highlighting the importance of the cognitive dimension in warfare.

In this context, NATO has explicitly committed to enhancing its cognitive warfare capabilities. The 2021 NATO Warfighting Capstone Concept outlines five long-term warfare development imperatives to achieve NATO's core tasks, with Cognitive Superiority and Influence & Power Projection largely built upon the principles of cognitive warfare. NATO's 2022 Strategic Concept also emphasizes the importance of ensuring national and collective resilience for all core tasks. The NATO Science and Technology Organization (STO) plays a key role in enhancing NATO's readiness by conducting evidence-based research to address cognitive warfare, supporting military and political leadership in making effective decisions and gaining cognitive advantage over adversaries during peace, crisis, and conflict. In 2022, the NATO Science and Technology Board identified cognitive warfare as a strategic research challenge within its Collaborative Work Programme.

The core section of the report details the research activities conducted by STO around cognitive warfare. Since being identified as a challenge area, 20 research activities related to cognitive warfare have been established, bringing together the combined expertise of over 200 experts from 26 NATO Allies and partner nations. Furthermore, a Cognitive Warfare Community of Interest has been established, meeting regularly to discuss and identify research needs. STO's research activities define three overarching functions of cognitive warfare and highlight the S&T needs and emerging capabilities requiring attention to build further knowledge and understanding for defending against cognitive warfare: 1. Degrade adversary capabilities, reducing their ability to influence and alter Allied behavior, thereby ensuring Allied decision-making ability and cognitive superiority; 2. Enhance human and technological cognition, raising cognitive capabilities above the current baseline; 3. Maintain resilience, the ability to withstand and recover operational effectiveness and maintain performance in the face of cognitive threats.

The report concludes by stating that cognitive warfare will undoubtedly remain a key research theme in STO's current and future work supporting NATO's core missions. NATO must invest in science and technology to defend Allies from cognitive warfare threats, which includes understanding the science, challenges, and opportunities involved in conducting cognitive warfare against adversaries. Deepening the understanding of the relationship between cognition and technology and its potential weaponization is crucial. A broader understanding of threat actors, their tactics, techniques, and procedures is necessary to stay ahead in the cognitive domain. Through continuous research and collaboration, NATO aims to strengthen its ability to respond to emerging security challenges in an agile and coherent manner.