Illuminating the Path Forward: Scenario-Based Planning in the Era of the Tri-Polar Nuclear Age

Key Chapter Title List

1. Executive Summary
2. Introduction
3. Background of Nuclear Force Competition
4. Key Trends Influencing Competition
5. A Low-Numbers World, 2025–35
6. Missiles in April
7. India-Pakistan: The Long Road to War
8. Fear of Becoming a Lousy Second
9. The Mobilization Race
10. Crossing the Firebreak
11. Breakthrough: A High-Numbers World
12. Illuminating the Path Ahead

Document Introduction

This report, authored by Hudson Institute Senior Fellow Andrew F. Krepinevich, employs scenario planning to assess emerging and significant challenges that U.S. nuclear forces may face during the 2035–2045 planning horizon, thereby gauging their potential future effectiveness. The study is set against a backdrop of disruptive geopolitical and military-technological changes in the current strategic force competition, particularly in nuclear force balance. The report argues that the U.S. Department of Defense's current modernization plans, formulated under more benign competitive conditions, are now outdated and insufficient, posing significant risks. Even if the planned modernization of the nuclear triad is completed, its structure may still fail to effectively achieve core and secondary national security objectives.

The core methodology involves constructing carefully designed scenarios that outline credible pathways to significantly different future competitive environments. These scenarios are shaped by key variables (or drivers) with a significant probability of occurrence during the planning period and the potential to substantially alter the nature of competition. By identifying well-researched and insightful future scenarios that would pressure the U.S. nuclear posture, this report aims to enhance decision-makers' ability to make better judgments in an uncertain world. If scenario analysis reveals flaws in current plans, decision-makers can proactively adjust them during the period of greatest freedom of action to mitigate risks and address uncertainties.

The report is rigorously structured, first reviewing the historical and contemporary context of nuclear force competition, then analyzing key trends influencing future competition. Building on this foundation, the study constructs and explores several specific scenarios in depth. These include a Low-Numbers World (2025-2035) with relatively constrained nuclear arsenals; the potentially crisis-triggering Missiles in April; the India-Pakistan: The Long Road to War in South Asia; the Fear of Becoming a Lousy Second, involving psychological dynamics of nuclear force comparisons; the great-power Mobilization Race; the critical threshold of Crossing the Firebreak during crisis escalation; and the Breakthrough: A High-Numbers World featuring a dramatic expansion of nuclear arsenals. Together, these scenarios form a multi-dimensional stress-testing framework.

The fundamental purpose of this study is to illuminate the path ahead, providing senior U.S. military policymakers and planners with a proven tool to adjust current nuclear strategy and force posture. The report emphasizes that due to the lengthy cycle from capability development to operational deployment, missteps in today's Pentagon decisions will be difficult to correct quickly in the future and could jeopardize critical security interests. Therefore, before freedom of action diminishes over time, decision-makers must gain the clearest possible understanding of potential major shifts in the nuclear competitive environment over the next one to two decades and prepare accordingly. This report provides a rigorous, forward-looking analytical foundation and decision-making reference to serve that goal.