Year Month Day Daily Physical Gold and Silver Market Report and Macroeconomic Outlook

Key Chapter Title List

1. Daily Physical Gold and Silver Market Report
2. Indian Spot Market Prices
3. COMEX Futures Watch
4. DGCX Gold and Silver Futures
5. ETF Holdings Status
6. London Gold and Silver Fixings
7. Weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders Report
8. Macroeconomic Indicators
9. Key Market Levels
10. Market Dynamics Analysis
11. Fundamental Outlook

Document Introduction

This report provides a panoramic view of data and analysis for the global precious metals market as of January 14, 2026, with a core focus on the price performance and underlying driving logic of gold and silver within a complex macroeconomic and policy environment. The report integrates multi-dimensional, high-frequency data ranging from the Indian spot market, London fixings, COMEX and DGCX futures trading, to changes in ETF holdings and CFTC speculative positions, aiming to provide professional investors and analysts with a rigorous basis for decision-making.

The report begins by detailing the intraday (AM/PM) trading prices for gold of different purities (999, 995, 916, etc.) and silver in the Indian market, along with recent price sequences in the Indian spot market, providing a benchmark for regional market liquidity. At the international level, the report tracks the futures prices and changes for COMEX gold (February contract) and silver (March contract), as well as related quotes from the DGCX market. Regarding capital flows, the holdings and net changes of the SPDR Gold ETF and iShares Silver ETF, combined with the non-commercial net long positions revealed in the CFTC report (124,256 contracts for gold, 17,658 contracts for silver), together outline the allocation tendencies and market sentiment of institutional investors.

The market dynamics analysis section delves into the core drivers of price fluctuations. Gold experienced a slight pullback after hitting a record high ($4,634.55/oz), while silver once broke through $89/oz. The driving factors present a mix of bullish and bearish forces: on one hand, weaker-than-expected US core inflation data strengthened market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates within the year, which traditionally benefits non-yielding assets like gold; on the other hand, the strengthening US Dollar Index exerted pressure on dollar-denominated gold. The report specifically points out that the White House's continued attacks on the Federal Reserve (including investigations into the headquarters renovation and President Trump's threats to dismiss Fed Chair Powell) have heightened market concerns about policy independence, thereby boosting gold's safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, silver continues to strengthen on the basis of its 148% surge in 2025, with its momentum stemming from a historic short squeeze and speculative frenzy. The report also mentions that the CME Group, in response to price volatility, will change the margin calculation method for gold and silver futures and plans to launch a 100-ounce silver contract to attract retail investors.

The macro-policy environment is a key variable affecting the medium to long-term trend of precious metals. The report aggregates important US economic data for the day, such as core PPI and retail sales, along with their market impact ratings. More importantly, through speeches by multiple Federal Reserve officials (including Richmond Fed President Barkin) and interest rate market trading dynamics, the report reveals the complexity of current monetary policy expectations. Although swap traders still almost fully price in a rate cut before the June meeting, investors focused on options trading are increasingly betting that the Fed will remain on hold throughout 2026. This shift in expectations stems from a robust labor market (unexpectedly falling unemployment rate) and persistently above-target inflation levels. Some institutions (such as JPMorgan) have even abandoned their forecasts for rate cuts in 2026, instead predicting a possible rate hike in 2027. This policy uncertainty, combined with geopolitical tensions, continued central bank gold purchases (especially by China), and the boost to industrial metal demand (such as for silver and tin) from the AI boom, collectively forms the macro backdrop supporting precious metals.

In summary, the report's fundamental outlook suggests that, driven by higher gold and silver prices on international exchanges, precious metal prices in the Indian market are expected to show a range-bound to upward intraday pattern. The current market is under the combined influence of multiple factors, including monetary policy expectation games, geopolitical risks, technical buying, and long-term inflation concerns. The utility of gold as a hedge against policy volatility and monetary uncertainty continues to be highlighted, while silver benefits from the dual drivers of its financial attributes and industrial demand.