Scenario Simulation: Strategic Risk Assessment of the U.S. "Occupation" of Greenland

List of Key Chapter Titles

1. Strategic Context: The Geopolitical Value of Greenland and Major Power Concerns
2. Scenario Setting: Hypothetical Triggers for a U.S. "Occupation" of Greenland
3. Military Simulation: U.S. Forcible Seizure of Greenland and Regional Security Impact
4. Geopolitical and Diplomatic Consequences
5. International Law and Sovereignty Disputes
6. Non-Traditional Security Dimensions: Cyber Warfare and Information Warfare Confrontations
7. Our Response Strategy

Document Introduction

This study is a forward-looking strategic risk assessment, focusing on a hypothetical scenario where the United States might unilaterally use military means to forcibly control Greenland, the autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, in the future. The report aims to move beyond the current diplomatic rhetoric surrounding Greenland's sovereignty, delving into an in-depth analysis of the logic, pathways, and profound implications of the U.S. potentially taking drastic risks to achieve its strategic objectives against the backdrop of intensifying Arctic geopolitical competition and climate change reshaping shipping lanes and resource patterns.

The report first systematically outlines Greenland's irreplaceable strategic value. Its geographic location controls the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom (GIUK) Gap connecting the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans, serving as a critical node for monitoring Russian Northern Fleet submarine activities. The U.S. Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base) on the island undertakes core missions such as missile warning and space surveillance and has been integrated into the U.S. Northern Command's homeland defense system. Simultaneously, Greenland possesses world-class deposits of rare earth elements, uranium, oil and gas, and various critical minerals. Its economic potential and strategic resource attributes attract the attention of global powers. As Arctic sea ice melts, emerging shipping routes further elevate the island's potential as a hub connecting North America, Europe, and Asia.

Based on this background, the report constructs a multi-scenario trigger framework around the 2030s, including potential catalysts such as internal independence referendums in Greenland triggering political upheaval, escalating Arctic security incidents heightening U.S. crisis perception, domestic U.S. political populism driving action, and a complete breakdown of diplomatic negotiations. The core section of the report conducts a detailed military operation simulation, modeling the process where U.S. forces, leveraging existing base advantages, long-range projection capabilities, and information superiority, execute a rapid "decapitation" operation to seize administrative centers, key airports, and transportation nodes, while implementing communication blockades and maritime exclusion zones. The simulation assesses casualties in a limited conflict, the collective defense dilemma faced by Denmark and NATO, societal resistance and governance vacuum within Greenland, and the ripple effects on the security posture of neighboring Arctic states like Canada and the Nordic countries.

The report deeply analyzes the multiple geopolitical and diplomatic earthquakes such an action would trigger. The transatlantic alliance would face an unprecedented crisis of credibility and cohesion, with the EU potentially pushing for strategic autonomy and imposing symbolic sanctions on the U.S. Multilateral institutions like the United Nations would face operational paralysis, but widespread international condemnation would severely undermine U.S. soft power and moral authority. Legally, U.S. action would constitute a clear violation of the UN Charter and expose institutional loopholes in the NATO treaty regarding aggression between member states, creating a significant "double standard" dilemma. In the long term, this would place Greenland in a state of "illegal occupation" under international law.

The study further extends the analysis to non-traditional security dimensions, predicting intense hybrid warfare accompanying the conflict. This includes potential U.S. political infiltration, information manipulation, cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure and communications paralysis, as well as legal and financial warfare aimed at asset freezes and pressure through domestic legislation. Correspondingly, Denmark, the EU, and supporting parties would launch countermeasures in public opinion, seek international sympathy, and engage in defensive and offensive actions in cyberspace. Finally, from a specific strategic perspective, the report explores the warnings such an event might provide, as well as its indirect impacts on the Arctic strategic landscape, critical resource supply chains, diplomatic alliance strategies, and the security situation in the Asia-Pacific region.

This assessment is strictly based on logical deduction from open-source geopolitical analysis, historical precedents, military capability comparisons, and international legal frameworks. It aims to provide professional readers with a systematic and rigorous thinking tool to understand potential extreme game scenarios in the Arctic, this emerging strategic frontier, and their multi-dimensional impacts on the global order.