India-US Relations: Pakistan Re-emerges in the Trump Era

List of Key Chapter Titles

1. Pakistan's Re-emergence in the Trump 2.0 Era
2. The Maturation and Evolution of the India-US Strategic Partnership
3. The Roots of Initial Optimism
4. The Shifting Nature of US Engagement with Pakistan
5. Understanding Trump's Embrace of Pakistan
6. Economic Drivers of the US-Pakistan Relationship Shift in Trump's Second Term
7. India's Concerns
8. The Future of US-India Relations

Document Introduction

The India-US strategic relationship, evolving from a post-Cold War trust deficit over more than two decades, has transformed into a dynamic, multi-faceted partnership encompassing defense, trade, technology, energy, and a commitment to a rules-based order. Bilateral trade has surged from just over $30 billion in 2006 to $131.84 billion in 2024-2025, while the signing of foundational defense agreements and unprecedented enhancement of military interoperability mark a deepening of strategic trust. However, the commencement of President Donald Trump's second term introduces new variables into this seemingly stable relationship. The report's core focus is on how Pakistan—a factor India considered "neutralized" in bilateral discourse over the past five years—has re-entered US regional strategic calculations in a remarkable way under the Trump administration, testing the stability of India-US relations.

The report first reviews the trajectory of India-US relations since the George W. Bush administration, highlighting the critical role of shared Indo-Pacific vision, high-level dialogue mechanisms, and multilateral frameworks like the Quad in deepening strategic convergence. Although Trump's first term established the principle of a "Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership," his second-term policies show significant discontinuity and a transactional nature. The author notes the Trump administration's rapid pivot towards Pakistan, even at the expense of relations with India. A series of actions—including two visits to the US by Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir within a short span involving nuclear threats, the handover of a key ISIS-K figure, crypto-diplomacy, and a substantial increase in lobbying expenditure in Washington—signal a strategic reorientation of US-Pakistan ties in a short period. Concurrently, the US imposition of a 50% secondary tariff on Indian imports of Russian oil further strained bilateral relations.

The report delves into the multiple motivations behind the Trump administration's embrace of Pakistan. This stems primarily from Trump's transaction-centric worldview, where his foreign policy treats economic opportunity as the bedrock of all relationships. Operationally, this manifests in using trade and tariffs as leverage, even turning alliances into bargaining markets. In the US-Pakistan context, Trump sees economic opportunities including potential cryptocurrency cooperation, critical mineral development (e.g., lithium, rare earths), and oil supply. Furthermore, the report argues that Trump's desire to act as a global "deal-maker" for personal political capital (e.g., a Nobel Peace Prize), and viewing Pakistan as a potential regional "buffer state" or asset amid escalating Middle East tensions (particularly the Iran-Israel conflict), are also significant drivers. The report specifically notes that Trump's bypassing of Pakistan's elected government to engage directly with its powerful military figures exposes his pragmatic (or opportunistic) understanding of the country's power structure.

For India, the recalibration of US policy towards Pakistan triggers its longstanding strategic anxieties. While India-US relations are deep-rooted and multi-dimensional, a warming of US-Pakistan ties could inject new friction into the bilateral relationship. India is particularly wary of any military aid or economic support to Pakistan not conditioned on counter-terrorism. The report details India's cautious yet firm diplomatic posture in response to Trump's policy swings, including clearly rejecting third-party mediation on Kashmir, refuting Trump's "inaccurate" claims about brokering an India-Pakistan ceasefire, and deftly declining meeting invitations that could be seen as endorsing his "mediator" role. This demonstrates India's mature diplomatic poise and commitment to upholding sovereignty principles.

Looking ahead, the report contends that the impact of Trump's Pakistan policy on US-India relations will depend on three key variables: the evolution of US-China strategic competition, the dynamics of the Iran-Israel conflict, and the direction of US energy policy (especially regarding fossil fuels). While US-India defense cooperation, technology partnership, and multilateral coordination mechanisms (e.g., Quad, I2U2) form robust anchors for the relationship, unlikely to be undone by Trump's overtures to Pakistan, an unconstrained deepening of US-Pakistan ties could position Pakistan as a "swing state" between the US and China, undermining stability in South Asia and the broader Middle East. The report concludes that the re-emergence of the Pakistan factor in the Trump 2.0 era, while unlikely to fundamentally rupture the US-India strategic partnership, undoubtedly introduces a new variable testing its resilience. The future challenge for both sides lies in managing these divergences without losing sight of the larger strategic vision that binds them.

List of Key Chapter Titles

1. Pakistan's Re-emergence in the Trump 2.0 Era
2. The Maturation and Evolution of the India-US Strategic Partnership
3. The Roots of Initial Optimism
4. The Shifting Nature of US Engagement with Pakistan
5. Understanding Trump's Embrace of Pakistan
6. Economic Drivers of the US-Pakistan Relationship Shift in Trump's Second Term
7. India's Concerns
8. The Future of US-India Relations

Document Introduction

The India-US strategic relationship, evolving from a post-Cold War trust deficit over more than two decades, has transformed into a dynamic, multi-faceted partnership encompassing defense, trade, technology, energy, and a commitment to a rules-based order. Bilateral trade has surged from just over $30 billion in 2006 to $131.84 billion in 2024-2025, while the signing of foundational defense agreements and unprecedented enhancement of military interoperability mark a deepening of strategic trust. However, the commencement of President Donald Trump's second term introduces new variables into this seemingly stable relationship. The report's core focus is on how Pakistan—a factor India considered "neutralized" in bilateral discourse over the past five years—has re-entered US regional strategic calculations in a remarkable way under the Trump administration, testing the stability of India-US relations.

The report first reviews the trajectory of India-US relations since the George W. Bush administration, highlighting the critical role of shared Indo-Pacific vision, high-level dialogue mechanisms, and multilateral frameworks like the Quad in deepening strategic convergence. Although Trump's first term established the principle of a "Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership," his second-term policies show significant discontinuity and a transactional nature. The author notes the Trump administration's rapid pivot towards Pakistan, even at the expense of relations with India. A series of actions—including two visits to the US by Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir within a short span involving nuclear threats, the handover of a key ISIS-K figure, crypto-diplomacy, and a substantial increase in lobbying expenditure in Washington—signal a strategic reorientation of US-Pakistan ties in a short period. Concurrently, the US imposition of a 50% secondary tariff on Indian imports of Russian oil further strained bilateral relations.

The report delves into the multiple motivations behind the Trump administration's embrace of Pakistan. This stems primarily from Trump's transaction-centric worldview, where his foreign policy treats economic opportunity as the bedrock of all relationships. Operationally, this manifests in using trade and tariffs as leverage, even turning alliances into bargaining markets. In the US-Pakistan context, Trump sees economic opportunities including potential cryptocurrency cooperation, critical mineral development (e.g., lithium, rare earths), and oil supply. Furthermore, the report argues that Trump's desire to act as a global "deal-maker" for personal political capital (e.g., a Nobel Peace Prize), and viewing Pakistan as a potential regional "buffer state" or asset amid escalating Middle East tensions (particularly the Iran-Israel conflict), are also significant drivers. The report specifically notes that Trump's bypassing of Pakistan's elected government to engage directly with its powerful military figures exposes his pragmatic (or opportunistic) understanding of the country's power structure.

For India, the recalibration of US policy towards Pakistan triggers its longstanding strategic anxieties. While India-US relations are deep-rooted and multi-dimensional, a warming of US-Pakistan ties could inject new friction into the bilateral relationship. India is particularly wary of any military aid or economic support to Pakistan not conditioned on counter-terrorism. The report details India's cautious yet firm diplomatic posture in response to Trump's policy swings, including clearly rejecting third-party mediation on Kashmir, refuting Trump's "inaccurate" claims about brokering an India-Pakistan ceasefire, and deftly declining meeting invitations that could be seen as endorsing his "mediator" role. This demonstrates India's mature diplomatic poise and commitment to upholding sovereignty principles.

Looking ahead, the report contends that the impact of Trump's Pakistan policy on US-India relations will depend on three key variables: the evolution of US-China strategic competition, the dynamics of the Iran-Israel conflict, and the direction of US energy policy (especially regarding fossil fuels). While US-India defense cooperation, technology partnership, and multilateral coordination mechanisms (e.g., Quad, I2U2) form robust anchors for the relationship, unlikely to be undone by Trump's overtures to Pakistan, an unconstrained deepening of US-Pakistan ties could position Pakistan as a "swing state" between the US and China, undermining stability in South Asia and the broader Middle East. The report concludes that the re-emergence of the Pakistan factor in the Trump 2.0 era, while unlikely to fundamentally rupture the US-India strategic partnership, undoubtedly introduces a new variable testing its resilience. The future challenge for both sides lies in managing these divergences without losing sight of the larger strategic vision that binds them.