Analysis of the U.S.-Russia Peace Plan Draft: Ukraine's Peace Plan and Reactions from Various Parties

List of Key Chapter Titles

1. Reactions to the US-Russia 28-Point Ukraine Peace Plan
2. Latest Positions
3. Ukraine
4. Russia
5. United States
6. UK, NATO, and Europe
7. Suggested Reading

Document Introduction

Since mid-November 2025, the international community has launched a new round of intensive diplomatic efforts aimed at ending the conflict in Ukraine. The core driver of this diplomatic push is a draft "28-point peace plan" jointly formulated by US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and his Russian counterpart Kirill Dmitriev, which was exposed by the media. This initial proposal outlined a series of broad terms for conflict resolution, including limiting the size of Ukraine's armed forces, committing through constitutional amendment not to join NATO, recognizing Russia's "sovereignty" over Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk, holding Ukrainian elections within 100 days, lifting sanctions on Russia and inviting it back to the G8, and providing Ukraine with "reliable security guarantees." However, many of these proposals are not new and were interpreted as excessively favoring Russia, reiterating Moscow's "maximalist" demands including territorial concessions, which immediately sparked deep concern in Ukraine and among its European allies.

In response to the controversy over the initial proposal, emergency consultations were held in Geneva from November 23 to 24, 2025, involving the United States, Ukraine, and European allies. Reports indicate that a revised version of the plan, based on a European counter-proposal aimed at limiting Russian gains, was placed on the negotiating table. The subsequent diplomatic process advanced rapidly. During high-level trilateral talks between the US, Europe, and Ukraine held in Berlin on December 14-15, Ukraine signaled a key compromise. Reports suggest Ukraine is willing to make concessions on its aspiration to join NATO in exchange for security guarantees "based on Article 5," including the deployment of a European-led multinational force in Ukraine. Nonetheless, the issue of ceding territory to Russia remains a major obstacle in the negotiations, with significant differences persisting between the parties' positions.

The report details the latest strategic positions of the main actors as of mid-December 2025. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that the primary goals of the negotiations are to ensure national independence and sovereignty, establish reliable security guarantees to prevent future aggression, and prevent Russia from "receiving a reward" from the war. He acknowledged the extreme difficulty of the territorial issue but expressed willingness to work constructively to find a solution that respects Ukraine and ends the war as soon as possible. Russian President Vladimir Putin views the initial 28-point plan as the "basis for a final peace settlement," accusing Europe of "sabotage" attempts. On the territorial issue, Russia's stance is uncompromising, insisting that the regions incorporated via "referendums" are an "inseparable part" of Russia, rejecting any form of concession, and explicitly opposing the stationing of European troops in Ukraine, while expressing confidence in the battlefield situation. The US government claims a peace agreement is "closer than ever," stating that about 90% of the issues have been resolved, describing the security guarantees as the "platinum standard," and urging Ukraine to seize the opportunity which "will not last forever."

Leaders from the UK, NATO, and Europe, including UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, continue to call for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire, respect for Ukraine's sovereignty, the provision of strong security guarantees for Ukraine with US support, and ensuring Ukraine's future self-defense capability. They stress that any decisions about Ukraine's future "must be decided by Ukraine," while matters concerning Europe and NATO require consensus among member states. Following the Berlin talks, European leaders issued a joint statement welcoming US-led peace efforts and pledging to provide "strong security guarantees" for any war-ending agreement, including legally binding obligations to restore peace and security in the event of future armed attack. The statement reaffirmed that international borders must not be changed by force and that "decisions on territory should be made by the Ukrainian people once effective security guarantees are in place."

This report is based on public statements, government documents, and authoritative media reports as of December 17, 2025. It aims to provide policymakers, researchers, and geopolitical analysts with an objective, structured overview of the latest developments in the Ukraine peace negotiations. The end of the report includes suggested further reading from leading think tanks and media outlets such as the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Chatham House, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), and the Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center, for readers wishing to conduct in-depth analysis. Please note that the report's content will be updated as events unfold and does not constitute specific legal or policy advice.