Analysis of the Strategic Intent and Capability Building Blueprint Behind Japan's Annual Massive Defense Budget

Key Chapter Title List

1. Sustained High-Speed Expansion of Budget Scale: The Five-Year Plan Enters Intensive Implementation Phase
2. Strategic Pillars and Budget Allocation: Focusing on Seven Key Areas to Build a Multi-Domain Joint Offense-Defense System
3. Strengthening Common Foundations: Focusing on Defense Production, Technology R&D, and Human Resources
4. Deepening the Japan-U.S. Alliance and Expanding Security Cooperation
5. Addressing Climate Change and Optimizing Internal Management
6. Organizational Structure and Personnel Allocation Adjustments
7. Comprehensive Analysis and Strategic Response Considerations

Document Introduction

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the massive defense expenditures planned by the Japanese government in its Fiscal Year 2026 (April 2026 to March 2027) budget proposal. Against the backdrop of global macroeconomic pressures and Japan's own fiscal expansion and high debt burden, the defense budget remains a top priority, with a draft scale reaching approximately 88.454 trillion yen, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. This budget proposal is not merely an annual fiscal document; it represents a critical milestone for Japan's effort to achieve "fundamental reinforcement of defense capabilities" by FY2027, guided by its top-level frameworks, the National Defense Strategy and the Defense Buildup Plan. The core objective of this study is to move beyond a superficial examination of budget figures and reveal the underlying strategic intent and blueprint for systematic capability building.

The report is primarily based on systematic interpretation of the official document "Progress and Budget Regarding the Fundamental Reinforcement of Defense Capabilities (FY2026 Budget Estimate Request)" released by Japan's Ministry of Defense in August 2025, combined with public reports from sources such as Reuters and Kyodo News. The analysis indicates that Japan is advancing the development of its defense forces with unprecedented determination, speed, and breadth. Its budget planning and capability building exhibit distinct characteristics: the strategic shift is offensive, the system construction is systematic, and technological development is cutting-edge and leading.

The core content of this report revolves around seven strategic pillars. First, it focuses on analyzing the construction of "long-range defense capabilities." Japan is investing approximately 10.25 trillion yen to accelerate the establishment of a "deep-strike" system capable of conducting multi-layered, diversified, and sustained strikes from land, sea, air, and submarine platforms, aiming to acquire so-called "counterstrike capabilities." Second, the report details massive investments and specific projects in areas such as "unmanned defense capabilities," "cross-domain operational capabilities" (space, cyber, electromagnetic), and "command, control, and intelligence-related functions," aiming to shape asymmetric operational advantages and seize dominance in emerging domains. Furthermore, the report examines its "sustainability and resilience" building, including large-scale ammunition stockpiling (approx. 949.2 billion yen), equipment maintenance (approx. 2.147 trillion yen), and facility hardening (approx. 1.074 trillion yen), reflecting systematic preparations to support prolonged, high-intensity conflict.

Beyond the direct construction of combat capabilities, the report also analyzes Japan's measures to strengthen its defense industrial and technological base. Through the "Act on Strengthening the Defense Production and Technological Base," establishing special subsidy funds, heavily investing in dual-use technology R&D (R&D budget approx. 779 billion yen), and promoting international cooperative projects like the next-generation fighter (GCAP), Japan aims to achieve autonomy and self-reliance in defense technology and industry. Simultaneously, by significantly increasing "U.S. Forces Japan Realignment-related Expenses" and "Host Nation Support," and planning intensive joint exercises/training as well as capacity-building support for Southeast Asian and Pacific Island nations, the report reveals Japan's strategy of deeply integrating into the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy while actively expanding its own security cooperation network.

Comprehensive analysis indicates that Japan's military transformation is comprehensive and historic, with the goal of fundamentally acquiring and consolidating offensive capabilities to reshape the regional military balance. This trend will pose multi-faceted and profound challenges to the security environment around China, high-tech competition, and regional strategic stability. In its conclusion, the report recommends strengthening the tracking and analysis of the specific progress of Japan's various plans, focusing on competition in key technological fields, while steadfastly advancing national defense and military modernization, properly managing major power relations, and expanding strategic space.