Diplomatic Bluebook: Foreign Policies of Various Regions in Japan (Chapter 2: Russia, Belarus, Central Asia, and the Caucasus)

Key Chapter Title List

1. Overview of Central Asia and the Caucasus Region
2. Russia, Belarus, Central Asia, and the Caucasus Region
3. Russia's Domestic Situation
4. Russia's Foreign Policy
5. Russia's Economic Situation
6. Overview of Japan-Russia Relations
7. Northern Territories Issue and Peace Treaty Negotiations
8. Japan-Russia Economic Relations
9. Situation in Belarus
10. Overview of Major Regional Frameworks (Russia, Central Asia, Caucasus)
11. Relations and Interactions between Central Asian Countries and Japan
12. Relations between Caucasus Countries and Japan and Regional Issues

Document Introduction

This report is excerpted from Chapter 2 of Japan's "Diplomatic Bluebook 2025," focusing on Japan's foreign policy towards Russia, Belarus, Central Asia, and the Caucasus region. Against the backdrop of key events in 2024 and early 2025, the report provides an in-depth analysis of the geopolitical evolution in the relevant regions, strategic interactions among major powers, and the challenges and responses faced by Japan, all within the overarching context of Russia's ongoing special military operation in Ukraine and its profound impact on the international order.

The report begins by outlining Russia's continued offensive on the Ukrainian battlefield and the strengthening of its nuclear deterrence posture. It highlights that in response to Western sanctions and isolation, Russia is accelerating the deepening of strategic cooperation with China, India, North Korea, and the so-called Global South. A series of events, including President Putin's visits to China and North Korea and Russia's hosting of the BRICS summit, signal its attempt to build an international alliance independent of the West. Simultaneously, the report analyzes the cautious stance of Central Asian and Caucasus countries in this complex situation. While maintaining close geopolitical and economic ties with Russia, they are also seeking multilateral balance and deepening dialogue with China, the United States, the European Union, and Japan.

The core section of the report systematically assesses Russia's domestic and foreign policy trends. Domestically, the Putin regime consolidates its rule by strengthening social support for participants in the special military operation, adjusting personnel, and significantly increasing the defense budget, while simultaneously harshly suppressing dissent. Economically, the report reveals that under the pressure of Western sanctions, Russia maintains economic growth by redirecting energy exports, dedollarizing trade, and circumventing technology blockades through third countries. However, it also faces structural issues such as high inflation and labor shortages.

Regarding Japan-Russia relations, the report clearly states that Russia's aggression against Ukraine has led to serious difficulties in bilateral relations. While adhering to strict sanctions against Russia in coordination with G7 and other partners, Japan maintains necessary contact with Russia on practical matters involving national interests, such as fisheries and maritime security. The report dedicates considerable space to detailing the stalled negotiations on a peace treaty concerning the Northern Territories issue, as well as activities like free visits and grave visits, all due to unilateral actions by Russia. It reiterates that Japan's fundamental position of concluding a peace treaty by resolving the issue of the attribution of the Northern Territories remains unchanged and strongly protests Russia's military buildup on the disputed islands.

Finally, the report outlines Japan's strategic approach in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Through the "Central Asia plus Japan" Dialogue framework, now in its 20th year, Japan maintains high-level dialogue and economic cooperation with the five Central Asian countries, aiming to maintain regional stability and an open international order. In the Caucasus region, based on its Caucasus Initiative, Japan is committed to supporting nation-building in regional countries through human resource development and infrastructure development. It also monitors the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan following the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, as well as the turbulent domestic politics and EU accession process in Georgia. By detailing Japan's specific diplomatic interactions and cooperation agreements with various countries, the report demonstrates Japan's strategic intent, as a non-regional power, to play a unique role in the heartland of Eurasia through soft influence and functional cooperation.