German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP): Analysis Report on the Early Period of Trump's Administration

Key Chapter Title List

1. Introduction and Analytical Framework: Governing Foundation and Ideological Coalition
2. Trade Policy: Disruptive Tariffs and the Shift to Protectionism
3. NATO and Transatlantic Relations: Pressuring Europe to Assume More Responsibility
4. Policy Towards Russia-Ukraine: Shift Towards Cooperation with Russia and Sacrificing Ukraine
5. Policy Towards China: High Tariffs and Escalation of Technological Competition
6. Immigration Policy: Domestic Hardline Enforcement and Border Control
7. Climate and Environmental Policy: Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and Related Actions
8. Conclusion and Outlook: Policy Impact and Strategic Uncertainty

Document Introduction

This report, released by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) in 2025, aims to provide an in-depth and systematic assessment of the policy trajectory during the initial phase of the second term of former U.S. President Donald Trump (also referred to as Trump 2.0). The study focuses on his first 90 days in office, a critical period that often sets the policy tone and strategic direction for a new administration. The core of the report lies in analyzing how the Trump 2.0 administration rapidly advanced a series of radical domestic and foreign policy agendas and exploring the underlying political dynamics and ideological foundations.

The report begins by examining the domestic political structure, providing a deep analysis of the core coalition supporting Trump 2.0's governance. This coalition is not monolithic but is composed of three key ideological groups: Christian nationalists, who push for a conservative turn in social policy and cultural issues; economic nationalists, who advocate using tariffs and industrial policy as tools to reshape the global economic order to prioritize American interests; and the tech right, an emerging force focused on technological sovereignty, cybersecurity, and competition in the digital domain. Understanding the dynamics of this coalition is key to interpreting the logic behind its subsequent specific policies.

Building on this foundation, the report elaborates in detail on the policy shifts of the Trump 2.0 administration across several key areas. In the realm of trade, the report assesses its disruptive tariff policies, including imposing tariffs on allies and major competitors (such as China), which signifies a fundamental questioning and reshaping of the existing global trading system. In the security domain, the report focuses on analyzing its attitude towards NATO, pointing out its continued pressure on European allies to bear more defense spending and responsibility, posing significant pressure on transatlantic unity.

One of the report's core findings lies in the dramatic shift in its policy towards the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Unlike the previous administration, Trump 2.0 demonstrated a clear tendency to shift towards cooperation with Russia and showed a willingness to sacrifice Ukraine's interests to achieve broader geopolitical deals, which fundamentally altered the evolutionary trajectory of the European security landscape. Regarding China policy, the report notes its continuation and escalation of strategic competition, combining high tariffs with stringent measures aimed at curbing China's technological progress, pushing Sino-U.S. technological competition into a more intense phase.

On domestic affairs, the report examines its hardline immigration enforcement policies, including the escalation of border control and the strengthening of domestic enforcement measures. In the climate and environmental field, the report confirms its formal decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and the subsequent relaxation of domestic environmental regulations, marking a retreat of the United States' role in global climate governance.

Overall, this report provides an authoritative assessment of the initial governing style of the Trump 2.0 administration. It not only documents specific policy changes but also, by analyzing the ideological composition of its governing coalition, offers a rigorous analytical framework for understanding the deep-seated drivers of these changes and their potential future evolution. For professionals studying U.S. politics, transatlantic relations, the Indo-Pacific strategy, and the evolution of the global order, this report is an indispensable in-depth reference.