Analysis Report on the U.S. Navy's Fiscal Year Shipbuilding Plan

Key Chapter Title List

1. Navy 381-Ship Fleet Construction Goal
2. 2025 Plan: Expanding the Fleet to 390 Combat Ships
3. New Ship Construction Cost: Annual Scale of 35.8 Billion USD
4. Comparative Analysis of Total Shipbuilding Costs and Historical Appropriations
5. Budget Growth Requirements for Fleet Operations and Maintenance
6. Phased Changes in Fleet Combat Capabilities
7. Capacity Enhancement Requirements for the Shipbuilding Industrial Base
8. Details of Ship Inventory and Procurement Plans
9. Specialized Plans for Combat Ships and Support Ships
10. Development Concepts for Unmanned Surface and Underwater Vehicles
11. Cost Estimation Differences Between the Navy and the Congressional Budget Office
12. Implementation Plans for Specific Ship Projects (Aircraft Carriers, Submarines, Destroyers, etc.)

Document Introduction

As required by the U.S. Congress, the Department of Defense must submit a 30-year naval fleet development plan annually, and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) conducts independent analysis and cost assessments on this matter. This report focuses on the Navy's shipbuilding plan for Fiscal Year 2025, centering on four core issues: fleet size expansion, combat power structure optimization, budget investment, and industrial base support, providing objective and neutral professional analysis.

The core objective of the 2025 Plan is to build a larger fleet with more distributed firepower. According to the plan, the number of combat ships will gradually increase from the current 295 to 390 by 2054, exceeding the Navy's stated goal of 381 ships. However, the fleet size will experience a phased decline in the short term, reaching a low of 283 ships in 2027. Over the 30-year period, the Navy plans to procure 364 new ships, including 293 combat ships and 71 logistics support ships, with a focus on increasing the procurement proportion of next-generation active ships and smaller vessels.

Regarding costs, CBO estimates that the average annual total shipbuilding cost for this 30-year plan is 40.1 billion USD (in 2024 dollars), which is 46% higher than the average appropriation level of the past five years and 17% higher than the Navy's own estimate. The average annual cost for new ship construction is 35.8 billion USD. Combined with expenditures for operations and maintenance, shipborne aircraft, and weapon procurement, the Navy's total budget would need to grow from 255 billion USD in 2024 to 340 billion USD in 2054, an increase of one-third. The cost differences primarily stem from differing assumptions between the two parties regarding ship design, construction efficiency, and the growth of labor and material costs.

The evolution of combat power shows a characteristic of first declining and then rising: the fleet's firepower will experience a phased decline over the next decade, gradually recovering after the 2030s as the ship count expands, achieving a more widespread distribution of firepower. The industrial base faces significant challenges, as the tonnage of ships to be built over the next 30 years needs to be substantially increased compared to the past decade, especially requiring a significant boost in nuclear submarine production capacity. Simultaneously, issues such as shipyard labor shortages, single-source supply chains, and construction delays need to be addressed.

The report also provides a detailed analysis of procurement plans, cost estimates, and combat power contributions for various types of ships, including aircraft carriers, submarines, destroyers, and amphibious warfare ships. It explores the potential impact of the AUKUS security agreement on the inventory of attack nuclear submarines, offering comprehensive decision-making references for Congress and relevant policy-making bodies.