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2 June Briefing Read full brief

Tehran bets on a long war as Washington weighs new nuclear deployments and a surprise spy-chief pick

The US spent June 2 managing a war it cannot end. Iran has concluded prolonged conflict serves it better than a deal; an IRGC general warned of undisclosed capabilities, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is alive and engaging while cautioning that talks guarantee no accord. The Financial Times reported confidential talks to extend NATO nuclear sharing to Poland and the Baltics, and Trump pressed Xi Jinping to lean on Moscow. At home, Trump named housing chief Bill Pulte acting intelligence director over Tulsi Gabbard, drawing bipartisan criticism.

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US in confidential talks to expand NATO nuclear sharing beyond its six host states

The United States is holding confidential talks with NATO allies about deploying nuclear weapons in additional European countries beyond the six current host states, the Financial Times reported on June 2, citing three people briefed on the discussions. The talks centre on expanding the dual-capable aircraft program -- allied jets configured to deliver US B61 bombs under Washington's sole authorisation -- with Poland and the Baltic states the most vocal in seeking to host them. Officials cautioned that no agreement is imminent and that the move would cut against the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act, under which the alliance pledged not to station nuclear weapons in new member states.

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Iran adopts 'forever war' strategy, sees prolonged conflict as preferable to diplomacy

Iran has concluded that prolonged conflict with the United States is preferable to diplomacy, viewing the war as a means to increase its international power and force Washington to reconsider its assumption that Tehran is weak. Tehran has used the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on Arab states hosting U.S. bases to drive a wedge between Washington and its Gulf partners, while hard-liners now firmly command the country after the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal and subsequent U.S. bombing campaigns. The Islamic Republic engages in talks only to manage the tempo of conflict and lower international pressure, refusing to make concessions that would diminish its leverage.

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Trump pressed Xi to use Chinese leverage to restart Ukraine-Russia peace talks, SCMP reports

US President Donald Trump urged Chinese leader Xi Jinping during their May summit in Beijing to use Beijing's influence over Moscow to revive stalled Russia-Ukraine negotiations, the South China Morning Post reported on June 1, citing multiple sources. Trump told Xi that talks between Moscow and Kyiv had collapsed and asked him to bring Vladimir Putin back to the table. The White House and the Chinese embassy in Washington declined to comment.

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IRGC general warns Iran has undisclosed military capabilities as nuclear talks stall

Brigadier General MohammadJafar Asadi, deputy inspector of Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, said on Tuesday that Iran has not revealed all its military capabilities and is ready for direct confrontation with the US and NATO. The warning came as hardliners linked to acting IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi were identified as the force behind Monday's suspension of indirect negotiations with Washington. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said talks continue but cautioned that progress does not guarantee a deal.

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Taiwan President Lai says status quo key to secure tech supply chains at COMPUTEX summit

Background: Taiwan President Lai Ching-te previously defended US arms purchases as a key deterrent after President Trump called them a bargaining chip with China. Today, Lai opened the COMPUTEX tech summit in Taipei, stating that maintaining the political status quo across the Taiwan Strait is the most responsible approach to secure global technology supply chains. He emphasized Taiwan's critical role as a chip supplier for Nvidia and Apple, and noted that the government will firmly safeguard peace and stability. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang called Taiwan the 'epicenter of the ecosystem' and announced plans to invest around $150 billion annually in Taiwan. Lai's remarks come amid ongoing tensions with China and follow US President Trump's recent visit to China where he paused a tranche of military assistance for Taiwan.

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Background: Taiwan President Lai Ching-te previously defended US arms purchases as a key deterrent after President Trump called them a bargaining chip with China. Today, Lai opened the COMPUTEX tech summit in Taipei, stating that maintaining the political status quo across the Taiwan Strait is the most responsible approach to secure global technology supply chains. He emphasized Taiwan's critical role as a chip supplier for Nvidia and Apple, and noted that the government will firmly safeguard peace and stability. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang called Taiwan the 'epicenter of the ecosystem' and announced plans to invest around $150 billion annually in Taiwan. Lai's remarks come amid ongoing tensions with China and follow US President Trump's recent visit to China where he paused a tranche of military assistance for Taiwan.

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Rubio confirms Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei alive and increasingly engaging

Background: US intelligence previously assessed that Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, injured in US-Israeli strikes, is actively shaping wartime strategy via trusted couriers while recovering from burns and shrapnel wounds. Today: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly confirmed to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that Khamenei is alive and increasingly engaging, marking the first official US acknowledgment of his condition and activity level since the attacks. Rubio stated, 'I think there are indications out there that he is increasingly engaging at some level,' aligning with earlier intelligence assessments that Khamenei is actively shaping war strategy despite his injuries.

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Background: US intelligence previously assessed that Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, injured in US-Israeli strikes, is actively shaping wartime strategy via trusted couriers while recovering from burns and shrapnel wounds. Today: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio publicly confirmed to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that Khamenei is alive and increasingly engaging, marking the first official US acknowledgment of his condition and activity level since the attacks. Rubio stated, 'I think there are indications out there that he is increasingly engaging at some level,' aligning with earlier intelligence assessments that Khamenei is actively shaping war strategy despite his injuries.

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Trump appoints Bill Pulte as acting director of national intelligence

US President Donald Trump appointed Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and a close political ally, as acting Director of National Intelligence (DNI), replacing Tulsi Gabbard who resigned due to her husband's cancer diagnosis. Pulte, who has no intelligence or military background, will retain his FHFA role while overseeing the nation's 18 intelligence agencies. The appointment has drawn bipartisan criticism over concerns of politicizing intelligence, as Pulte previously used his FHFA position to push investigations into Trump's political opponents, including Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook and New York Attorney General Letitia James. The move underscores Trump's emphasis on loyalty over experience in intelligence leadership.

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US President Donald Trump appointed Bill Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and a close political ally, as acting Director of National Intelligence (DNI), replacing Tulsi Gabbard who resigned due to her husband's cancer diagnosis. Pulte, who has no intelligence or military background, will retain his FHFA role while overseeing the nation's 18 intelligence agencies. The appointment has drawn bipartisan criticism over concerns of politicizing intelligence, as Pulte previously used his FHFA position to push investigations into Trump's political opponents, including Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook and New York Attorney General Letitia James. The move underscores Trump's emphasis on loyalty over experience in intelligence leadership.

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Kazakhstan offers to store Iran's enriched uranium to facilitate US-Iran nuclear deal

Background: Iran is believed to hold over 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60% after the June 2025 US strikes, with the material's location unclear. US President Trump claims Iran agreed to hand over the stockpile, but Tehran has not confirmed. Kazakhstan has now formally offered to host Iran's near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile as a neutral custodian, a proposal endorsed by IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi and supported by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The offer leverages Kazakhstan's history of nuclear disarmament and its existing IAEA Low Enriched Uranium Bank. Iran has rejected transferring its stockpile abroad, while US President Trump has demanded the material be handed over, destroyed, or moved to an acceptable location. The proposal remains contingent on broader international agreement.

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Background: Iran is believed to hold over 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60% after the June 2025 US strikes, with the material's location unclear. US President Trump claims Iran agreed to hand over the stockpile, but Tehran has not confirmed. Kazakhstan has now formally offered to host Iran's near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile as a neutral custodian, a proposal endorsed by IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi and supported by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The offer leverages Kazakhstan's history of nuclear disarmament and its existing IAEA Low Enriched Uranium Bank. Iran has rejected transferring its stockpile abroad, while US President Trump has demanded the material be handed over, destroyed, or moved to an acceptable location. The proposal remains contingent on broader international agreement.

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Trump amends tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, copper

President Donald Trump has revised tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and copper, adjusting trade policy that affects global metal markets and international trade relations.

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President Donald Trump has revised tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and copper, adjusting trade policy that affects global metal markets and international trade relations.

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U.S. manufacturing PMI hits 54 in May, highest in four years, amid Iran war disruptions and tariff uncertainty

The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI rose to 54 in May, the highest reading in four years, indicating expansion for a fifth straight month. New orders, production, and backlogs strengthened, and S&P Global's U.S. manufacturing PMI also climbed to a four-year high. However, the recovery is clouded by energy shocks from the Iran war, tariffs, and supply chain chaos. Analysts warn that stockpiling may be inflating the data, and factory payrolls have fallen in 12 of the past 15 months, complicating the administration's promise to revive blue-collar jobs. Input costs remained stubbornly high, with ISM's prices-paid gauge near its highest levels since the inflation surge of 2021-2022.

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The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI rose to 54 in May, the highest reading in four years, indicating expansion for a fifth straight month. New orders, production, and backlogs strengthened, and S&P Global's U.S. manufacturing PMI also climbed to a four-year high. However, the recovery is clouded by energy shocks from the Iran war, tariffs, and supply chain chaos. Analysts warn that stockpiling may be inflating the data, and factory payrolls have fallen in 12 of the past 15 months, complicating the administration's promise to revive blue-collar jobs. Input costs remained stubbornly high, with ISM's prices-paid gauge near its highest levels since the inflation surge of 2021-2022.

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Taiwan passes $25 billion defense budget after legislative deadlock, cuts domestic innovation

Background: Taiwan's opposition-dominated parliament passed a record special defense budget of nearly €21 billion, significantly lower than President Lai Ching-te's original proposal, funding US weapons purchases and a new 'T-Dome' missile defense shield. On May 8, 2026, Taiwan's Legislative Yuan passed a $25 billion special defense budget, ending a six-month stalemate. The budget is $15 billion less than Lai's original $40 billion proposal and includes strict earmarks for U.S. hardware, sidelining domestic innovation. The compromise undermines Taiwan's 'porcupine' strategy by cutting domestic programs like the Strong Bow air defense system and drone initiatives. The passage followed a six-month legislative deadlock, with the Kuomintang-led opposition eventually passing a 'middle ground' version after internal fractures. Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's controversial 'peace' mission to Beijing and the opposition's initial refusal to pass the budget had fueled U.S. frustration. The budget's passage reflects complex domestic political dynamics, including public pressure for increased defense spending and the opposition's desire to avoid being seen as anti-defense.

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Background: Taiwan's opposition-dominated parliament passed a record special defense budget of nearly €21 billion, significantly lower than President Lai Ching-te's original proposal, funding US weapons purchases and a new 'T-Dome' missile defense shield. On May 8, 2026, Taiwan's Legislative Yuan passed a $25 billion special defense budget, ending a six-month stalemate. The budget is $15 billion less than Lai's original $40 billion proposal and includes strict earmarks for U.S. hardware, sidelining domestic innovation. The compromise undermines Taiwan's 'porcupine' strategy by cutting domestic programs like the Strong Bow air defense system and drone initiatives. The passage followed a six-month legislative deadlock, with the Kuomintang-led opposition eventually passing a 'middle ground' version after internal fractures. Kuomintang Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun's controversial 'peace' mission to Beijing and the opposition's initial refusal to pass the budget had fueled U.S. frustration. The budget's passage reflects complex domestic political dynamics, including public pressure for increased defense spending and the opposition's desire to avoid being seen as anti-defense.

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Iran sentences protester to 10 years; Israel-Hezbollah tensions escalate with Beirut evacuation warnings and US mediation efforts

An Iranian court sentenced Massud Piyaho to 10 years in prison for posting a video of the December 2025 bazaar protests in Tehran, which activists compared to the iconic 'Tank Man' image. Separately, Israel warned residents of Beirut's southern suburbs to evacuate and threatened to attack the capital if Hezbollah strikes continue. Iran suspended indirect talks with the US over Israeli operations in Lebanon and warned of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump claimed to have brokered a de-escalation, but Israeli PM Netanyahu insisted on a hard line. The UN Security Council held an emergency session. Oil prices spiked on the Iran news.

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An Iranian court sentenced Massud Piyaho to 10 years in prison for posting a video of the December 2025 bazaar protests in Tehran, which activists compared to the iconic 'Tank Man' image. Separately, Israel warned residents of Beirut's southern suburbs to evacuate and threatened to attack the capital if Hezbollah strikes continue. Iran suspended indirect talks with the US over Israeli operations in Lebanon and warned of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump claimed to have brokered a de-escalation, but Israeli PM Netanyahu insisted on a hard line. The UN Security Council held an emergency session. Oil prices spiked on the Iran news.

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Six killed in domestic dispute shooting spree in Muscatine, Iowa

Six people were killed in a series of shootings in Muscatine, Iowa, on Monday, stemming from a domestic dispute. The suspected shooter, Ryan Willis McFarland, 52, was found dead from a self-inflicted gunshot wound. All victims are believed to be family members. Police responded to multiple locations, including a residence and a business. The investigation is ongoing.

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Six people were killed in a series of shootings in Muscatine, Iowa, on Monday, stemming from a domestic dispute. The suspected shooter, Ryan Willis McFarland, 52, was found dead from a self-inflicted gunshot wound. All victims are believed to be family members. Police responded to multiple locations, including a residence and a business. The investigation is ongoing.

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AI investment boom continues with IPOs, infrastructure pledges, and chip rally

The artificial intelligence sector shows no signs of slowing, with major developments including Anthropic's confidential IPO filing, SoftBank's €75 billion ($87 billion) AI infrastructure investment in France, and Nvidia's new RTX Spark superchip for PCs. Asian chipmakers Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron each reached a $1 trillion valuation amid an AI-driven rally. Samsung averted a strike by agreeing to pay bonuses of up to $370,000 per worker from semiconductor profits, setting a potential precedent for profit-sharing.

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The artificial intelligence sector shows no signs of slowing, with major developments including Anthropic's confidential IPO filing, SoftBank's €75 billion ($87 billion) AI infrastructure investment in France, and Nvidia's new RTX Spark superchip for PCs. Asian chipmakers Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron each reached a $1 trillion valuation amid an AI-driven rally. Samsung averted a strike by agreeing to pay bonuses of up to $370,000 per worker from semiconductor profits, setting a potential precedent for profit-sharing.

Frequently Asked

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Why does Iran prefer a long war over diplomacy?
Tehran sees a prolonged conflict as preferable to diplomacy, using Strait of Hormuz closure and strikes on US bases to drive a wedge between Washington and Gulf partners.
What new nuclear deployment is the US considering?
US officials are in confidential talks to expand NATO nuclear sharing beyond six current host states, with Poland and the Baltics pressing to host dual-capable aircraft armed with US B61 bombs.
Who did Trump name as acting Director of National Intelligence?
Trump named Bill Pulte, the Federal Housing Finance Agency director with no intelligence background, as acting DNI, replacing Tulsi Gabbard.
What offer did Kazakhstan make regarding Iran's uranium?
Kazakhstan formally offered to hold Iran's stockpile of more than 440 kg of 60-percent-enriched uranium as a neutral custodian, endorsed by IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi.
How did the US manufacturing index perform in May?
The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index rose to 54 in May, a four-year high and fifth straight month of expansion, though analysts cautioned about war and tariff effects.